Now some supplementary analysis, thanks to suggestions from @imartincorena, @hancocktom, @mrsmmartin, @neilcharles_uk.

UK is in real trouble here.

On current trends, UK could hit Italy’s death count in ~9 days. Italy locked down 10 days ago. UK is already behind that schedule. pic.twitter.com/Ywf1dsdzVS

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) March 21, 2020