[P&b Gambling University]

apologies if this has been posted already but i thought these maxims are worth a read by anyone who likes a bet.

Mistakes are the portals of discovery. James Joyce - Irish author (1882 - 1941)

When everybody thinks alike, everyone is likely to be wrong.

Losers think of selecting the winner and beating a race. Professionals think of betting for value and beating the races.

Never succumb to anyone who just wants to let you know what you are doing will never work.

Don't fall foul of the favourite/longshot bias i.e. horses with short odds (i.e., favourites) tend to win even more frequently than indicated by the final market odds, while horses with long odds (i.e., longshots) win less. So, during tissue compilation, don't underestimate the chances of preferred contenders and overestimate the changes of marginal contenders.

The best handicapping literature in the world are your own records.

The crowd is smart ... so let them do the handicapping and analyse them.

The difference between success and failure is small. Therefore you need to continually work to maintain your edge and continually work to improve your performance.

Successful punters think in terms of chances, not fancies and certainties. They try to assess the true chance of a horse in a race and bet on the basis of their evaluations.

Value is all-important - not winners. The secret is not getting more heads than tails; it's winning more when a coin comes up heads than you lose when it's tails.

Common sense dictates that you cannot outsmart the public if you are handicapping with the same information and methods as the public.

The successful punter never allows items of news, "whispers" or thoughts of others override his train of thought when assessing a race's runners for betting purposes.

Following the herd is fine until they all run off the side of a cliff together.

If you want to make money ... big money ... do what nobody else is doing.

To be a winner, one must know or perceive things which the public must not grasp. If there is no special insight then there will be no special odds, no bargains, no overlays; the more that information is used by the public, the less it pays off at the bookies.

To be successful you've got to have had some failures in your career - and learnt from them - otherwise you have probably been too conservative.

Picking winners is easy. Beating the odds is not.

In order to make money betting on sports, you must either have information that is not being used by the betting public, or you must have a superior ability to process the information that is public

"The aim of any entrepreneur is to make more money than you lose" - Theo Paphitis

Knowing the moment to sell is what separates the successful entrepreneur from the also-ran. According to George Soros's son, the hedge fund billionaire sells out when his back starts playing up.

The market is incredibly efficient; don't buck the analysis done by others who determine the market.

Punting Maxims of the Form-Pro

The Form-Pro's personal philosophies and ideas about successful punting published so far. The result of years of study, research and punting experience, these tips should immediately improve your bottom line!

1. Proven class is always worth more than potential class. All other things being equal prefer the horse that has already proven itself in the class of today's race.

2. Don't underestimate the importance of form consistency. Regardless of their last start performance; be wary of horses that have a habit of mixing their form from run to run.

3. Race pace has a major influence on the ability of a horse to carry weight over a given distance. A horse will be at a significant disadvantage if asked to carry more weight over more distance in a race with faster early pace.

4. Never discount the clear victories one horse has had over another in their previous runs. Unless there were "significant" excuses for the defeat and / or you expect the horse to notably improve under the new race conditions, it is most likely to be defeated again.

5. Don't be deceived by the "one-off" rating in a horse's previous form that indicates it should easily beat today's opposition. Unless the horse is young, on the way up and has already demonstrated some special talent, the rating is likely to be an aberration. Your bankroll will be in much better shape if you base your assessment on ratings more consistent with the horse's overall record.

6. Knowledge of a horse's ability or potential to compete at different class levels is the basis of effective form analysis. Always start your analysis of each horse with an assessment of its class relative to the race under consideration.

7. If you aspire to make consistent profits from racing a detailed knowledge of individual horses is essential. Spend time noting the characteristics and ability of individual horses in different conditions and you will be well rewarded.

8. Pay particular attention to how a horse finished off the final 50m of its race. A simple note of whether the horse was making, losing or holding ground during this period can prove vital when assessing its form in a future race.

9. The judgement and skill of a jockey is frequently the difference between winning and losing a race, especially on hold-up runners, biased tracks and horses drawn wide. Steer clear of poor and inexperienced jockeys on horses facing these difficult conditions and you will avoid many losing bets.

10. Pay particular attention to young, lightly raced horses that win with something in reserve. Quiet often they can continue to step up in class and string together a few more wins before they reach their class and weight peak.

11. Proven ability in wet going is vital. Horses that have yet to start on slow or heavy tracks represent high risk, regardless of how good other aspects of their form might be. Your bankroll will be much better off if you avoid them as betting propositions.

12. Making an income from racing is about playing the odds and taking advantage of profitable opportunities when they arise. Have the discipline to ignore favoured runners that represent poor value and courage to support others that represent higher value and you will drastically improve your bottom line.

13. When examining the potential disadvantages a horse must overcome to win a race, always consider its class relative to the class of opposition. Horses that have a class edge will often overcome difficulties to still go on and win. However horses that are racing at their class peak will most often only win when everything is in their favour.

Originally published on the Form-Pro website.

The Wisdom of Pittsburgh Phil

Pittsburgh Phil was a legendary US racing punter and his wise words apply to all forms of betting, not just racing in America.

A good jockey, a good horse, a good bet. A poor jockey, a good horse, a moderate bet. A good horse, a moderate jockey, a moderate bet.

A man who plays the races successfully must have opinions of his own and the strength to stick to them no matter what he hears.

Successful handicappers know every detail in regard to the horses upon which they are intending to place their money.

The minute that a man loses his balance on the race track he is like a horse that is trying to run away.

A man cannot divide his attention at the track between horses and women.

All consistently successful players of horses are men of temperate habits in life.

The racing man should arise in the morning cool and clear headed and should then take up the problem of the day.

Some horses will run good races over certain tracks, while in the same company under similar conditions on other tracks they will run very disappointingly. Study the likes and dislikes of a horse in regard to tracks.

If there are two or three very fast horses in a race, one or two of them will quit before the end of the journey. Hence look out for your intelligent jockey.

Many killings are attempted but few are accomplished.

In handicaps the top weights are at a disadvantage always unless they are very high class horses.

There are few trainers who can send a horse to the post the first time out in perfect condition.

One race for a horse is equal to two or three private trials.

Horses are the same as human beings where condition is the test of superiority.

Winners repeat frequently while the defeated are apt to be defeated almost continuously.

The majority of horses will go further over the turf than they will over the dirt course.

Mud runners are usually good on the turf.

Time enters into the argument under certain conditions but if depended entirely for a deduction it will be found wanting.

The ability to tell whether a horse is at its best before a race is acquired only after years of the closest kind of study.

Special knowledge is not a talent. A man must acquire it by hard work.

A horse that frets is a very dangerous betting proposition.

The majority of the riders and horses are game and will fight for victory no matter where they are placed.

Some jockeys excel on heavy tracks.

A good mud rider will frequently bring a bad horse home.

You cannot be a successful horse player if you are going to get the worst of the price all the time.

The basis of all speculation is the amount of profit to be obtained on an investment.

It is not always the heaviest wager that is collected. The weight of the bet does not make a horse win. A poor man's horse and his $10 speak as loudly as a $10,000 wager from a millionaire. It is the horse that must be considered.

The clocker is something like the scout in the army.

Honest horses, ridden by honest boys, are sometimes beaten by honest trainers. Instructions are given to the riders which mean sure defeat when intended to be the best.

The resistance of the wind is very great in a horse race and it is a correspondingly great when acting as a propeller. Wind and atmosphere have considerable effect on horses that are troubled in their respiratory organs.

Class in a horse is the ability possessed by it to carry its stipulated stake weight, take the track and go the distance that nature intended that it should go,

I figure that two-year-olds can give considerably more weight away to horses in their class, than can horses in the older division excepting in isolated areas.

There is enough natural inconsistency in horse racing without having it forced upon the public by unscrupulous men, yet there is not one-tenth of one per cent, as much crookedness on the turf as it is given credit for.

A horse that is not contented in his stable cannot take on flesh and be happy.

Every horse I ever owned improved after I had him long enough to study his disposition.

A horse expects to race if he is a thoroughbred, just the same as a game chicken is anxious to fight.

When you feel yourself getting out of form then take a rest and freshen up.

What is frequently right in form is wrong in condition. If a horse is not in good condition he might as well be in the stable.

Look for improvement of mares in the autumn of the year. They train better and more consistent.

There are mud riders as well as mud runners in the racing world.

A jockey should not be overloaded with instructions.

It is not bad speculation to pick out two or three sure looking bets and parlay a small amount.

Cut your bets when in a losing streak and increase them when running in a spasm of good luck.

Double your wagers when you have the bookmakers' money in hand.

Condition has more to do with a horse winning or losing a race than the weight it carries.

A horse in poor condition cannot beat one of his own class.

A high class horse could not win a race with a feather on his back if he is not in condition.

Watch all the horses racing closely. You may see something that will be of benefit later on.

It is well to play horses that are in winning form. A horse in winning condition generally repeats or runs into the money.

Different tracks cause decided changes in form frequently. Study horses' whims and fancies for certain tracks and you will see a good "lay" or a good "play." But a high class horse will do his best on any track.

The less one thinks of crookedness and trickery in racing the more successful will be his handicapping.

Look for defect in your own calculating rather than cheating of others.

Learn to finance your money to advantage.

Know when to put a good bet down and when not to.

-- From "Racing Maxims and Methods of Pittsburgh Phil," by Edward W. Cole

Wise words from financial experts

Originally written by Max Gunther, reprinted from www.bfportal.com. Initially written for financial trading, but just as relevant for sports punters and traders.

On Risk:
- Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health - if you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
- Always play for meaningful stakes - if an amount is so small that its loss won't make any significant difference, then it isn't likely to bring any significant gains either.
- Resist the allure of diversification.

On Greed:
- Always take your profit too soon.
- Decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

On Hope:
- When the ship starts sinking, don't pray. Jump.
- Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life. Expect to experience several while awaiting a large gain.

On Forecasts:
- Human behaviour cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly.

On Patterns:
- Chaos is not dangerous until it starts to look orderly.
- Beware the historian's trap - it is based on the age-old but entirely unwarranted belief that the orderly repetition of history allows for accurate forecasting in certain situations.
- Beware the chartist's illusion - it is characteristic of human minds to perceive links of cause and effect where none exist.
- Beware the gambler's fallacy - there's no such thing as "Today's my lucky day" or "I'm hot tonight".

On Mobility:
- Avoid putting down roots. They impede motion.
- Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia.
- Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view.

On Intuition:
- A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.
- Never confuse a hunch with a hope.

On the Occult:
- If astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.
- A superstition need not be exorcised. It can be enjoyed, provided it is kept in its place.

On Optimism & Pessimism:
- Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.

On Consensus:
- Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong.
- Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it.

On Stubbornness:
- If it doesn't pay off the first time, forget it.
- Never try to save a bad investment by "averaging down".

On Planning:
- Long-range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long-range plans or other people's seriously. In essence these axioms point to the benefit of having an investment strategy and sticking to it, regardless of what other investors say or do. If you don't have an investment strategy, you could do worse than adopt these principles. However, don't be afraid to add or subtract ones according to what works for you.

https://betting.betfair.com/education/-generic-betting-principles/betting-maxims-1-110111.html

[Livingston - all the threads merged]

sorry if i have missed this in this big old thread but has anything been confirmed with Livi's potential point deduction? and if not does anyone know when it is going to be resolved? thanks

sorry if ive missed this but can anyone tell me anymore about it? thanks

[Livingston - all the threads merged]

sorry if i have missed this in this big old thread but has anything been confirmed with Livi's potential point deduction? and if not does anyone know when it is going to be resolved? thanks

[What Are You Listening To?]

just the old cdzinc style streaming stuff

http://leantop.com/m-album.php?artist=Muse...lbum=Absolution

http://www.streamstash.com/other/

[What Was The Last Movie You Watched?]

Sin City - I havent really taken the whole film in and it aint what im used to watching but i think i really enjoyed it. I aint sure yet. Its one of them films you either love or hate and im sitting on the fence.

I wont do any spoilers but i can say 2/3 of it was stylish and quite compulsive. Truth be told you'll probably love it. Should end up as a classic in its day no doubt.

A good film to take someone elses woman to.