sgm2
-
Posts
20 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Store
Posts posted by sgm2
-
-
RE the Betfair strategy the best way is to price the event/ market and then add in your margin the same as bookmakers. This way if you are accurate you will make a steady %.
If it is a one off and/ or you have time the method Nightmare suggested is the best way.
0 -
A few years back I put £200 on Alloa to win the 3rd Division and rolled over my free £200 (Bet365) six times by backing a 1st goalscorer who was suspended. The bets were void and it counted towards releasing the money.
I'm sure someone on here recommended it.
0 -
Does anyone here keep a ratings system? If so how do you work out a teams home superiority. There are many ways to do it (Points, Goals, Modified Score etc) but the principles will be the same.
Also, I still can find a decent stats web-site. www.football.co.uk is ok but it appears to stop recording the SFL stats prior to last season.
Any help would be appreciated.
0 -
Just shots on goal/ on target, corners and possession etc.
0 -
Can anyone advise the best place to obtain match stats (football) for the English and Scottish lower leagues? I usually use Soccerbase but don't think they have what im looking for here.
0 -
I would make sure McBookie take your bet 1st as they have a £50 max on match singles.
0 -
Anyone heading to Perth Races this week? I'll be there Thurs/ Fri can't wait.
Looking at todays card there may be a bit of value in the following:
16.05: Blenheim Brook (5/1)
16.40: Nine Stories (8/1)
I'm a great believer in horses for course and both won here on the opening day last season on simliar ground/ distance.
0 -
you could try adding in first goalscorers who wont play?
I don't think that would work because you can't bet on the Juniors online. Also, generally when you stake anything over £50/100 they have to phone in the bet to head office. I would assume they would click on at this stage.
Man City under 0.5 is 150/1 but I wouldn't go for that.
0 -
Hills have a minimum trebles rule in the Juniors so if I want to do a single what are the best guarentees to add in? IE Holland (+1) v San Marino 1/1000 etc.
My mate has been caught out before where he got the 5/2 single but added Arsenal (+1) at home to West Brom at 1/200. They lost 3-2!
0 -
Its not quite as clear cut as the team needs to win. If you are consitently betting at odds which are better than the true probability of the event occuring over time you will make profit, however it is unlikely that every team will win.
Ok I understand. I'd still like to know the staking plan from the original post (about betting on all 46 games). Its explained but I got slightly lost and just need it confirmed.
0 -
If you're wanting to test out things, you're best off looking at these two sites:
Football Data and Betfair Data
There is also the option of time-stamped data from Fracsoft but this doesn't come cheap if you're wanting information across a lot of markets.
I do some football laying, but football these days makes up only about 15% of my total betting. I also don't limit myself to Betfair, I use Betdaq and Matchbook (almost exclusively American sports at Matchbook) quite extensively too.
It's difficult to get decent sums matched on correct scores, except for the highest profile matches, so I don't even try. I can make a profit very easily on the match odds markets, while total goals markets in football are just too random generally. Any edge you can find is relatively small, and certainly for me much smaller than with match odds.
I do all sorts of other laying, including running automated bots on Betfair to employ various strategies. Look up this book if you're interested in getting into that, as it is a good starting point. It's probably a bit beyond what you want to do at the moment though.
Laying across many markets is the best idea when it comes to betting as far as I am concerned. If you're doing this, the variance in your results should be much lower as you've got a high number of bets on and therefore if you've got an edge you should make a consistent profit. Since you were asking about football laying, what I do is very simple. I stick to English football only, as there is little money on the exchanges for Scottish football. So you've got 46 matches every weekend. I put a back up for every outcome (laying isn't just laying, but backing one outcome is effectively laying the other two I suppose) and lay every outcome. My back percentage is nearly always 88%-89%, but my lay book percentage tends to vary between 105% and 113%, although is mostly under 110%.
That might all sound too hard to understand, so in simple terms, let's say I think that all three outcomes in a football match are equally likely, ie 33.33%, to 2 decimal places. The fair price for this would be 2/1, or 3.00 in decimals. Therefore if I want to make a profit, you need a profit margin both sides. In this case of me calculating that all three outcomes are 33.33% likely, then when it comes to football, I would look to back all three outcomes at 3.35 and lay all three outcomes at 2.8. This isn't set in stone, if there are some uncertain factors in play, or if I just don't particularly want to lay or back a certain outcome for whatever reason, I can increase the margins. I also tend to start the week with higher margins, and decrease the margins as match day gets closer. I might be backing and laying 3.8 and 2.5 respectively on Monday, but be backing and laying 3.35 and 2.8 by Saturday morning for the same outcomes.
The only downside to laying is that it requires you to have lots of available funds. For example, normally I lay every outcome upto Evens (or 2.00) for £2,000 and lay every outcome above this price for a £2,000 liability. Then I back every outcome under Evens for a £2,000 stake, and back every outcome upto 2/1 for a £2,000 profit. Everything above 2/1 I back for a £1,000 level stake regardless of price, although I occasionally reduce this is you're looking at something 20/1+. Therefore the minimum liability per game is going to be £4,000 and the maximum is going to be £5,000 usually (unless two outcomes are below 2/1, which is unlikely). Multiply that by 46 and you have a figure between £184,000 and £230,000. Typically I'll only have 20%-30% of my total lay amounts matched over the course of a week, but every bet that is matched is at a very good price (according to my calculations anyway). It's far better than just turning up on a Saturday and taking whatever prices are available.
There are an infinite number of betting strategies that can work. I've found things that work for me, but of course other people might find what I do doesn't work but that totally different methods work for them. You just have to find something that works and refine it over time.
I'm looking to try out this method of backing and laying all 46 games (maybe with one league to start with and with obviously lower stakes). Can you please provide an example of what bets you would look to get matched based on 6/5 Blackburn 23/10 Bolton 3/1? (Edit: And also what you stake for each selection)
You also mentioned that you only get 20% or so bets matched. What if your back gets matched but the lay doesn't on several games. Yes, you will have great value but the team still needs to win.
0
Courtsiding
in The Gambling Forum
Posted
If people have an issue with the "morals" of court siding then what about the "morals" of bookies who take bets on a team who are say 5/4 knowing they and 6/4 and up elsewhere.
Bookmakers know the score and know the battle they are in.