[P&b Gambling University]

On 07/11/2016 at 17:39, blue4578 said:

I apparently hadn't signed in here since January, but just happened to notice this. 

I've never said that winning at betting is easy, because it isn't. I've had my fair share of stupid bets and there are some sports where I cannot make a profit despite trying (the NFL springs to mind). There are two main things to remember above all else I think:

• Betting always comes down to simple probability and your ability to estimate the chance of something occurring (ie a team or player winning)
• Discipline is everything. It is far easier to lose than win, so if you have no discipline you have little chance of winning long-term 

There are no secrets. I do have a maths degree, but then I've never used anything more than you'd learn doing GCSE maths to bet on football (baseball would be different). If I could put my finger on one helpful attribute, it is being able to look at lots of different information and process it all in your head to make decisions. I have always been able to do this, even when I was 13 or 14. Given a bit of mathematical knowledge, and having followed football (and looked at football odds) for a long time, then being able to estimate the probabilities of teams winning comes fairly easily to me. Other sports are far harder for me to be successful at. 

I would say if you've been betting for a while and you feel like you're not getting close to cracking it, then you need to be honest with yourself about why. You can't just wake up and decide to be good at something. Past experience and knowledge are all important. 

Statistics are absolutely fundamental. If you're trying to bet without them, then you're basically guessing. You can of course use the statistics in a million different ways. 

Thanks. Appreciate you answering. 

Ive learned a great deal from all your answers.

 

 

[P&b Gambling University]

On 17/10/2016 at 00:11, welshbairn said:

This. Why are you still trying?

Well I didn't say that I can't make money from betting on football.

I do believe that 90 minute markets are very hard to beat for most people including myself probably.

I concentrate all my efforts on betting on long term markets which I believe to be far easier to profit from.

Indeed the main reason I'm a member here is for some invaluable insight into what's going on in the lower leagues in Scotland. Especially pre season of course. 

[P&b Gambling University]

On 26/01/2015 at 15:15, blue4578 said:

Sorry just noticed these questions.

 

Since I wrote that things have changed again. The withdrawal from the UK of Pinnacle Sports on November 1st 2014 makes betting on American sports and tennis much more difficult for me. In fact betting on anything is tricky now. I'm right at the threshold of Betfair's Premium Charge, most bookmakers won't take a bet (or at least not for more than pocket change) and other exchanges have no liquidity. I was betting heavily on baseball and tennis at one point, but I stopped needing the money so the antisocial hours saw me give those up even before Pinnacle Sport's withdrawal.

 

Not at all. The only problem for me is getting bets on. The mechanics of betting is just the same, except perhaps the bookmakers aren't as clueless on certain lower leagues as they were 10 years ago.

 

Bookmakers make too much money from idiots, games of chance and poker. They won't take bets from anyone who remotely looks like they know what they're doing. Betfair's exchange is slowly going down the toilet as it doesn't make them enough money, and thus they have increased their charges while liquidity suffers on various markets. If I could bet as much money as I wanted at the advertised odds all the time, I'd have been long since sitting on my own tropical island drinking cocktails.

 

Unfortunately I've only just seen this. Hope blue is still around.

See,I'm fascinated by this answer because almost everywhere else I read that making a profit from football betting* isn't easy.Or as easy as it seems to be for blue that is.

So it seems to me that the most likely explanation is that blue has a great talent for soccer betting and because of this he is unaware that it's hard for nearly everyone else.

And my interest in this subject is such that I would like to know if this is true. My position is that I believe that  in fact betting on soccer isn't easy at all and that most markets are unbeatable.

But obviously blue will say that might well be because I can't beat them. 

But I think there's a way to try to find out if I'm right. I would ask blue if he wouldn't mind telling us how he became so brilliant at betting. I mean if he has always been able to do it that would suggest he's a genius since most bettors lose at first. If he also has say a first class degree in maths then that would pretty much confirm it.

 

And so I will personally still believe that I'm right and that only a tiny gifted minority can do this. BUT if it's far easier than I believe and blue isn't in fact a betting genius ,rather he learnt how to do it,then it would be wonderful for all of us I think if he could let us know how he learned to win from football.

 

Id love to know also whether stats are that useful -this may seem a stupid question to most but some bettors on forums insist they don't use them . And I do believe that there are exploitable situations ,it's just that they don't happen too often.

 

I have other questions but this post is long enough and I don't even know if blue is still around.

 

As I say I have a great interest in this.

 

I mentioned Tony Ansell before and one of the things he has claimed,I think I'm right in saying,is that people who can do what he dies are born not made.

So the point is if blue seems to confirm this then those of us who aren't winning after say 3 or 4 years if trying can just stop wasting out time and money.

(Yes I know many are doing it for entertainment but some really think they will win eventually)

*and in fact even trading football is supposed to be harder nowadays than it was although blue has already given an explanation for this to be fair

[Gambling forum quick questions thread]

If people have a good record of making profit from those teams or leagues then I wouldn't mind taking their advice. That blue239874 guy must be worth a few bob and all he does is gamble. Probably wouldn't hurt to do as he does!

Hmmm.

While I have no doubt that almost everything he has said on here is not only very interesting and,more importantly,true,I have serious doubts as to whether anyone on here can make a profit from betting simply from following the advice.

The same goes for any gambling book that I'm aware of.

At the very best a losing gambler may lose less as a result of reading successful bettors posts/books.

Now,of course talk is cheap so if anyone on here can prove me wrong I will be very interested to hear about it.

[P&b Gambling University]

I'm not saying that you can't trade and make profit of course, but in a lot of situations it leaves you with a lot more work to do, requires much more concentration over a prolonged period and can often end in failure. If you're trying to trade larger sums on more obscure markets, it's impossible to do anyway unless you want to give money away.

I must add that probably only about 5% of my total betting is on football these days. Home advantage in individual sports is largely not a factor as most tennis matches for example see two players from different countries playing in a third country. Different team sports have totally different trends regarding home advantage. Major League Baseball is an interesting case in point. It's a two-outcome sport, with the home win percentage unusually low for a team sport. This season is a bit strange as no team outside the NL Central (there are five other divisions) has a significantly better home record than away record. Yet if you go back to 2009, most of the better teams in the American League were dominant at home, with the third highest home win percentage in MLB history that season taking into account all teams. This wasn't good for me as I usually back outsiders playing away from home against short priced favourites due to the favourites often being overrated. It would be helpful if such trends stayed the same for years on end, but the fact that they don't at least keeps it interesting, if challenging to predict.

Hi,I have read all your posts with great interest and would like to thank you very much for taking the time to post.

I have a very great interest in football betting and may be asking you a question or two concerning other posts but for now I'm hoping you will be kind enough to let me know why it is that nowadays only 5 per cent of your outlay/ bets is on football?

I was very surprised to read that.

Has football become harder to profit from in your opinion?

If so,then obviously that has repercussions for everyone on this forum.

I try to read everything Tony Ansell writes and he doesn't think football is easy to profit from (any more).

If so,what are the reasons do you think? Many thanks