Edgar81
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Posts posted by Edgar81
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In 100000 runs, this 8-1 happened only 21 times. I never said it predicted the future
The program generates scores randomly based on formula explained earlier.
Most probable results were:
9.297% - 1-1
8.532% - 2-1
7.528% - 1-2
7.111% - 2-2
5.522% - 1-0
5.272% - 3-1
5.142% - 2-0
5.04% - 0-1
4.435% - 3-2
4.185% - 1-3
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I used to own this blog - that's where I started running simulations for various competitions.
Based on a list of 41292 Scottish results and Roonba's club ranking (Mark has a problem with the certificate of the website) I determined a function using polynomial regression that allows me to compute the expected goals scored between 2 teams knowing their ratings. The program generates a random number and based on that value it determines the score of a match. I do this for the remaining matches in HL/LL playoff, EoS, WoS. This is repeated 100000 times.
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13 hours ago, jimbaxters said:
What are sims when they’re at home?
Sorry, I don't understand your question (Apologies, English is not my first language). When a team plays at home - the rating is increased by 70 points before computing the points exchanged.
Update after yesterday's matches:
77.769% - Auchinleck Talbot
22.22% - Darvel
0.011% - Pollok
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19 hours ago, Lurcer said:
Do you have a link to this piece of magic.
Nope. It's on my computer. Mark from Roonba provided me with all the results so I was able to come up with a function for the sims. Don't know if there will be a link at some point on the Roonba site, as it seems nobody is interested.
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Over 100000 sims (using the Roonba Scottish club ranking):
89.865% - Auchinleck Talbot
9.802% - Darvel
0.333% - Pollok0 -
Over 100000 sims (using the Roonba Scottish club ranking):
Tranent Juniors - 81.668%
Penicuik Athletic - 11.756%
Linlithgow Rose - 6.576%0 -
Over 100000 sims (using the Roonba Scottish club ranking):
Cowdenbeath's opponent: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 59.062%, Fraserburgh 40.938%
To win the playoff:
47.461% - Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
29.303% - Fraserburgh
23.236% - Cowdenbeath
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Over 100000 sims (using the Roonba Scottish club ranking):
BOD: 99,772%
FW: 0,228%
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Based on the Roonba's Scottish club ranking and assuming all clubs have a license starting from next season, this should be the list of teams in 2027-2028.
Albion Rovers
Berwick Rangers
Bo'ness United
Broomhill
Caledonian Braves
Celtic U20
Civil Service Strollers
Clydebank
Cowdenbeath
Darvel
East Fife
East Stirlingshire
Gala Fairydean Rovers
Rangers U20
Spartans
Stirling Albion
Tranent Juniors
University of Stirling
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Based on the Roonba's Scottish club ranking and assuming all clubs have a license starting from next season, this should be the list of teams in 2027-2028.
Banks o' Dee
Brechin City
Brora Rangers
Carnoustie Panmure
Clachnacuddin
Dundee North End
East Craigie
Elgin City
Formartine United
Forres Mechanics
Fraserburgh
Huntly
Inverurie Loco Works
Keith
Lochee United
Nairn County
Rothes
Wick Academy
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19 October 2013 - match report
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What about relegation/promotion starting from next season? Has there been any official announcement regarding this? Thank you!
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16 hours ago, Vodka Vic said:
Remember when LL clubs were jumping up and down like ADHD baboons sitting on hot plates and “Brechin should take their medicine”
This. Couldn't stop laughing.
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On 29/08/2021 at 08:15, TheScarf said:
They'd have to get by the Midland League winners over 2 legs but I'd say they'd be favourites.
Couple of questions from outside of Scotland.
Aren't the North Caledonian winners also involved?
Based on wiki, there's no team in the Midlands league with a SFA license - wasn't that a prerequisite for participating in the playoff?
A bit disappointed that there are only 2 licensed teams at tier 6 in the North (Banks O' Dee and Golspie Sutherland) .
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How about taking the results of the last 10 years in Scottish football (all of it - SPFL, HL, LL, EOS, SOS, Juniors etc. - including cups), running a certain number of iterations using an Elo-like rating system and see what you get? Based on the output you could build leagues (from a certain level - perhaps below HL/LL) based on real team strength and avoid rugby scores. Just a thought from someone outside Scotland.
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Implementing a 3-region (North-East-West) split below the Championship, based on standings at the end of last season. I merged League One, League Two, Highland League, Lowland League, East of Scotland League and South of Scotland League into two levels.
The last team in the Championship would be relegated to L3, while the 3 L3 winners + the second last team in the Championship would be drawn in to 2 ties, with the aggregate winners going to the Championship.
1. Level 3 10/10/10 + Level 4 16/18/18
2. Level 3 12/12/12 + Level 4 12/18/16
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Have you ever looked at other European countries with population around 5 million?
Scotland
Population density map (Wikipedia)
Population: 5,295,000
Area: 78,782 km2
Density: 67.2/km2First, the only one with no actual pyramid:
Republic of Ireland
Population: 4,635,400
Area: 70,273 km2
Density: 65.3/km2
Level 1: 12 teams
Level 2: 8 teamsNow the others:
Croatia
Population: 4,284,889
Area: 56,594 km2
Density: 75.8/km2
Level 1: 10 teams
Level 2: 12 teams
Level 3: 3 groups: West (16) / East (16) / South (18)
Level 4: County leagues (one for each of the 21 counties)
NorwayPopulation density map (Wikipedia)
Population: 5,165,802
Area: 385,178 km2
Density: 15.5/km2League system (Wikipedia)
Level 1: 16
Level 2: 16
Level 3: 4 groups of 14 teams each
Level 4: 12 groups of 12-14 teams each
Level 5 and below: Regional football unions
Slovakia
Population: 5,415,949
Area: 49,035 km2
Density: 111/km2
Level 1: 12
Level 2: 2 groups: 12 / 12
Level 3: 4 groups: 16 / 16 / 16/ 18
Level 4: 8 groups
FinlandPopulation density map (Wikipedia).
Population: 5,489,097
Area: 338,424 km2
Density: 18/km2League system (Wikipedia)
Level 1: 12
Level 2: 10
Level 3: 4 divisions of 10 teams each
Level 4: 9 divisions of 10 to 12 teams each
Level 5: 14 divisions of 9 to 12 teams each
Level 6: 22 divisions of 7 to 19 teams each
Level 7: 27 divisions of 5 to 16 teams each
Denmark
Population: 5,699,220
Area: 42,915.7 km2
Density: 132.8/km2League system (Wikipedia)
Level 1: 12
Level 2: 12
Level 3: 2 divisions: 16 / 16
Level 4: 3 divisions: 14 / 14 / 14
Level 5: 5 regional divisions - these can be even 7 levels deepIn all these countries, there's a split after the second level. In Slovakia the split occurs after the first level.
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The program generates scores randomly based on formula explained earlier.
Lowland League promotion playoffs
in Lowland League
Posted
Could that be achieved for the 23/24 season?