roverthemoon Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 I still believe the "don't knows" are higher than what both polls are stating. My own personal opinion and of course not in anyway scientific, is that the Yes vote is slightly behind the No vote with a year to go. My best guess would be 40% definite No 30% definite Yes with the remaining 30% still up for grabs. Although I think given natural conservatism in people most undecideds will be leaning towards no and yes will have to work harder in next year than no to persuade them. Likewise totally unscientific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrysnotter Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 It was sampled between 23-28 August, among 1,043 people. So the Courier article is wrong? Thanks. Don't suppose you have the official breakdown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Latest poll was commissioned by the SNP. Will be interesting to see the full wording, preamble, what other questions preceded the question, if any It was the full preamble and question I originally posted. “There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 So the Courier article is wrong? Thanks. Don't suppose you have the official breakdown? No not at present. 1,043 figure came direct from SNP source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roverthemoon Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 It was the full preamble and question I originally posted. There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?" That's more neutral than YouGov one. Do we know if this was the first question asked or was anything else asked beforehand? Preceding questions can also lead just as much as a biased preamble. Would also be interesting up see if it has the same bias towards those voting in 2011 as the Panelbase one for wings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Ultra Unionist, Labour's Duncan Hothersall just Tweeted about the DevoPlus poll. "Interesting. Just saw @devoplus question from Sunday in full, and they used a leading run-in before main question. Less credible" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrysnotter Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 It was the full preamble and question I originally posted. “There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?" Here's what you said last night:- "Leaving the United Kingdom" fek me! Why not just ask the referendum question? Not leading enough? So you take exception to the preamble referring to "leaving the UK" but are entirely comfortable with the preamble in this poll referring to "an independent Scotland". Where's your criticism of this poll for "...not just asking the referendum question"? Your position is quite frankly, not credible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 That's more neutral than YouGov one. Do we know if this was the first question asked or was anything else asked beforehand? Preceding questions can also lead just as much as a biased preamble. Would also be interesting up see if it has the same bias towards those voting in 2011 as the Panelbase one for wings Panelbase changed their methodology before their poll for the Times in July, to remove that 2011 filter bias. Curtice remarked on it at the time: Interestingly the changed methodology didn't make any significant difference to the headline results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ad Lib Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 The smaller sample size of circa 900 is a subsample containing only those who are more than 80% likely to vote in the referendum. The full sample, the size over 1000, produces a 1% lead for No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 The smaller sample size of circa 900 is a subsample containing only those who are more than 80% likely to vote in the referendum. The full sample, the size over 1000, produces a 1% lead for No. Still a hell of a swing base don the previous panelbase polls, but unless we start seeing that level sustained then it's an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roverthemoon Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Panelbase changed their methodology before their poll for the Times in July, to remove that 2011 filter bias. Curtice remarked on it at the time: Interestingly the changed methodology didn't make any significant difference to the headline results. They still seemed to be using it for the survey they did for Wings. That sample had 16% saying they didn't vote in 2011 when real figure was 50%. Of course could be under-reporting as people didn't want to admit they couldn't be arsed voting in same way more people tend to say they voted for the winning party than actually did when asked post event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrysnotter Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 The smaller sample size of circa 900 is a subsample containing only those who are more than 80% likely to vote in the referendum. The full sample, the size over 1000, produces a 1% lead for No. Cheers for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Here's what you said last night:- So you take exception to the preamble referring to "leaving the UK" but are entirely comfortable with the preamble in this poll referring to "an independent Scotland". Where's your criticism of this poll for "...not just asking the referendum question"? Your position is quite frankly, not credible. What??? FFS! "Independent" and "Scotland" are two words that are actually in the official referendum question! The Devo Plus poll preamble asks about a referendum "tomorrow" What the fek is that all about? And, I believe is weighted on 2010 Westminster voting intentions. Why not weight it on the last party you voted for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrysnotter Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 What??? FFS! "Independent" and "Scotland" are two words that are actually in the official referendum question! The Devo Plus poll preamble asks about a referendum "tomorrow" What the fek is that all about? And, I believe is weighted on 2010 Westminster voting intentions. Why not weight it on the last party you voted for? More whataboutery. You rubbish one poll and advocate another simply because it suits your agenda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 More whataboutery. You rubbish one poll and advocate another simply because it suits your agenda. No I don't! One poll gave a very leading preamble on the lead up to the question(even staunch Unionists admit this) and the other didn't. What agenda does The Scotsman and the Sunday Herald have? Both gave the impression of the official question being asked and didn't mention the preamble. Panelbase poll today released the preamble TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Loving the desperation. I like the new line that it took us ages to come up with an argument about the last poll. That would be because the last poll was reported in an incredibly evasive way! Which I pointed out. Interesting to see those who are obsessed with polls have slunk away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrysnotter Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Loving the desperation. I like the new line that it took us ages to come up with an argument about the last poll. That would be because the last poll was reported in an incredibly evasive way! Which I pointed out. Interesting to see those who are obsessed with polls have slunk away. Interesting to see those who don't have any time for polls all of a sudden, seriously interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Interesting to see those who don't have any time for polls all of a sudden, seriously interested. Like who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArabianKnight Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 It's a surprise to those peddling the line that Scotland will automatically inherit these things. I'm under noillusion that we will not automatically inherit membership on same terms as we have as part of the U.K but it's entirely in my opinion that it will be nowhere near as difficult as BetterTogether are making out and for the most part be relatively plain sailing for us to have similar (and on the whole perhaps better terms in some respects) terms of membership as before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArabianKnight Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 If you say you can't be arsed with the nit picking and arguing then that makes you a definite unionist I think. Although the remainder of your post might just keep you out of the naughty corner for now Can you explain why not bothering with the nit picking makes me a possible unionist? Would it be because the Unionists aren't capable/not willing to have a reasoned debate that doesn't involve tremendous amounts of pedantry and lashing of misty eyed British imperial shite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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