Davi3j Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 My fingers are firmly in my ears lalalalalala I know your ignoring this one, but, go on, try and give a response We are all (except XBL right enough) living examples of the union working adequately. There is no better or more robust case. Hey SpecialB, tell that to these kids clicky Barry, did you click on that link??? Do you still think we are all living examples of the union working adequately??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Did a poll in my office. 4 people, all ABC1 social class, previous voting allegiances unknown. Used the referendum question and had no supplementary questions either before or after. 50% Yes, 25% No and 25% don't know (but inclining to No). There you are... was worried about you. You posted quite a lot when the first Panelbase poll of the summer came in about momentum and the graph showing the lines converging. What do you make of the lines being so far apart now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Well, if you disagree with me then explain why you do instead of making infantile sarcastic remarks. Remind me again... the SNP poll wasn't dodgy was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Looking at the "Line" view, it looks neck and neck. Interesting (but of course not the same) to compare it to the 2011 parliament polling where up till March(ish) Labour had been consistently ahead. One of the analyses that has been put on the 2011 election is that people only acknowledged at the last minute that Labour were offering nothing... Do we have an updated "Line" view available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T_S_A_R Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 More figures this morning that the economy is improving apparently. Couple that with the GMB more or less pulling the plug on Labour and the Yanks finally coming to the conclusion that Miliband is a total waste of space i'd say the Tories have the next election in the bag. The nasty Tory line is surely the obvious line to go for, no? Bedroom tax, Out the EU etc. Surely not? The oracles on here had Labour winning the next election? words fail me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrysnotter Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I know your ignoring this one, but, go on, try and give a response Barry, did you click on that link??? Do you still think we are all living examples of the union working adequately??? I must be very much mistaken in thinking that a Scottish Government could have tackled this issue themselves if they chose to. I must be very much mistaken that the Scottish Government have prevented council tax increases and reduced council's ability to deal with these issues. The very same choices would need to be made in an independent Scotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davi3j Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I must be very much mistaken in thinking that a Scottish Government could have tackled this issue themselves if they chose to. I must be very much mistaken that the Scottish Government have prevented council tax increases and reduced council's ability to deal with these issues. The very same choices would need to be made in an independent Scotland. Sooo let me get this right...your answer then is obviously NO, we are not all living examples of the union working adequately ETA Specialboy, you seem to forget that the Scottish Government only woks of an allowance which is less than the money generated in Scotland...now you say that if the SG hadnt froze the council tax then the councils could deal with poverty??? jeeze, then familys would be paying out even more money... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrysnotter Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Sooo let me get this right...your answer then is obviously NO, we are not all living examples of the union working adequately As a collective, we are. If the Scottish Government choose not to deal with these issues just now, why should I believe that things would change in an independent Scotland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 So, hb not obsessed with polls? Barry is doing his usual though. He wouldn't know intellectual honesty if it hit his offspring with the fruit of vines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davi3j Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 As a collective, we are. WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Incidentally, while our intellectually dishonest squad scream for responses from independence supporters, I notice that they completely failed to respond to my take on the poll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davi3j Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 As a collective, we are. If the Scottish Government choose not to deal with these issues just now, why should I believe that things would change in an independent Scotland? Ok special, click here and try and blame the Scottish Government Special clicky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 With reference to political party allegiances (which is precisely what Baxter was referring to), the TNS poll is unweighted. No lie from me. It clearly is. You shouldn't make assumptions, old chum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 words fail me. Be fair, they usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
barrysnotter Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 It clearly is. You shouldn't make assumptions, old chum. Evidence please? Where is this "clearly" recorded? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roverthemoon Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 If only Panelbase had some kind of system by which they could weight results according to political affiliation, gender and age..... They don't use it properly though. Although supposedly weighted on the 2011 result their sample only had 16% saying they hadn't voted when the actual figure was 50%. As a result their sample was dominated by people who voted in 2011 so SNP voters were boosted from around a quarter of the total electorate to 36% of the final poll sample. And all that before their two questions setting it up nicely. No great suprise that Yes was in the lead really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roverthemoon Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 In all honesty, that poll makes a bit more sense to me. A don't know of 28% is much more reasonable. And the higher No vote is a good representation of the fact that a lot of that No vote is extremely soft, and has a lot of people who have a default of No, but aren't particularly strongly bothered. However, the Yes level seems a little low to me, I'd expect it to be a bit higher, possibly around the 30% mark. As we get into the last few months, I'd expect to see some don't knows shifting to yes, and a hell of a lot of No shifting to don't know. I'd expect this to be happening around spring 2014. Then in the summer, thats when it gets crucial, and thats when I expect Yes to start bringing those don't knows into the fold, or making sure they don't vote. I think this is where the real chance for Yes to win lies. There will be a whole bunch of people who are really uncertain and probably inclined to play it safe and vote no. If they stay at home then Yes's share of the vote rises. Fairly reasonable analysis although there will inevitably be some shift from the don't knows into No as well. I think it is unlikely that the movement is all in one direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 Random sampling is random. As soon as a pollster starts targeting and hand pocking a specific audience their work is meaningless and their credibility is shot. The very nature of random sampling means that the will always be discrepancies. Different polling companies deal with these discrepancies in the different ways and there is no right answer (within reason) provided the methodology is transparent. Polling headline results must be read in conjunction. With the full narrative. Do you not understand this? Fucking hell. Looks like a moron has 'slipped' through the Law School's net. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 They don't use it properly though. Although supposedly weighted on the 2011 result their sample only had 16% saying they hadn't voted when the actual figure was 50%. As a result their sample was dominated by people who voted in 2011 so SNP voters were boosted from around a quarter of the total electorate to 36% of the final poll sample. And all that before their two questions setting it up nicely. No great suprise that Yes was in the lead really The fact is that pretty much all the polls are bunkem. The only narrative that everyone agrees on is that Yes trails No, no one knows by how much however, since Curtice and others have been able to pick bloody great holes in just about every single methodology practiced by these guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xbl Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 I think this is where the real chance for Yes to win lies. There will be a whole bunch of people who are really uncertain and probably inclined to play it safe and vote no. If they stay at home then Yes's share of the vote rises. Fairly reasonable analysis although there will inevitably be some shift from the don't knows into No as well. I think it is unlikely that the movement is all in one direction The lower the turnout, the better. If it dips as low as 50%, then we will have won for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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