Independence - how would you vote?

[H_B]

Which polls are neutral?

Polls not commissioned by political parties, or specific interest groups which could be said to have a dog in the fight. Such as the SNP, or Devo Plus.

[H_B]

Intellectually honest enough not to pretend to be neutral.

Because that's what intellectually honest means, since you clearly don't know.

Err, as usual. you are utterly wrong.

[H_B]

Equally a lot of these polls with biased media coverage seem to chime a bell. It must be heartening stuff knowing that no matter how close the polling or even how bad BetterTogether is, the media will always be able to paint a rosy picture for you and your fellow North Britons.

I reckon it's close, damn close and time as always will tell.

The media were all over the SNP's poll like a rash. Because it created an actual story, rather than just saying "Yeah, No are massacring Yes again".

It's not close. It's telling that even by manipulating the poll by leading people, to create the best possible figures, the SNP could only gain parity. No are substantially in front. Anyone who doesn't believe that is deluding themselves.

[Baxter Parp]

Polls not commissioned by political parties, or specific interest groups which could be said to have a dog in the fight. Such as the SNP, or Devo Plus.

And which ones are they?

[renton]

Yes quite.

I'd imagine it's becuase WoS is sympathetic to the independence cause. Good analysis is good analysis regardless of it's source or motivation. Plenty others were on hand to debunk the SNP-panelbase poll, and it's a good bet that those dilligent reporters at the Guardian, the Times and the telegraph wouldn't have put the time in debunking TNS or YouGov's findings.

Everyone has a dog in this fight and there is pretty much no nuetrality from anyone: The only thing to do is accept each sources' inherited biases and motivations and use that to weight the reuslts from each source. That way, we might get somewhere close to an objective truth about the whole affair.

[renton]

The media were all over the SNP's poll like a rash. Because it created an actual story, rather than just saying "Yeah, No are massacring Yes again".

It's not close. It's telling that even by manipulating the poll by leading people, to create the best possible figures, the SNP could only gain parity. No are substantially in front. Anyone who doesn't believe that is deluding themselves.

How many points is it? 30?, 20? 17? 10? 5?

[Baxter Parp]

Err, as usual. you are utterly wrong.

So it would have been "intellectually honest" to review the Panelbase poll from a biased point of view, would it?

That explains some of your posts, at least.

[ArabianKnight]

The media were all over the SNP's poll like a rash. Because it created an actual story, rather than just saying "Yeah, No are massacring Yes again".

It's not close. It's telling that even by manipulating the poll by leading people, to create the best possible figures, the SNP could only gain parity. No are substantially in front. Anyone who doesn't believe that is deluding themselves.

I must be delusional then.

[H_B]

Everyone has a dog in this fight and there is pretty much no nuetrality from anyone: The only thing to do is accept each sources' inherited biases and motivations and use that to weight the reuslts from each source. That way, we might get somewhere close to an objective truth about the whole affair.

Yes, I'm fine with WoS being a propaganda blog without a shred of credibility. It's what it is. A bit like the Celtic fan bigot websites having the odd useful nuggest of information during the Rangers crisis.

But it's not a news source. It's a guy with a keyboard and a very transparent agenda. No different from the likes of Colkitto on here, except better at it.

My point on polling is now, as it has always been, that you either accept all of the data or none of it. I'm happy with both. Where you look ridiculous is where you, like the SNP have tried to do, pretend the nasty ones don't exist, or find a way to discredit them, and cherry pick the couple a year which are best for you as the actual picture.

Obviously the SNP have to do this - they aren't going to say "we are getting our asses whipped here" on their website. But when people here do it, it's point and laugh time.

Which is why i have taken the complete piss out of Archie Guevara and Colkitto for pretending things were getting really tight, all to play for etc. by picking only the Panelbase data and discounting all of the many other polls that show No disappearing over a distant horizon.

Once you start looking at graphs and saying "ooh... it was 20%, now it's down to 5%.. woohoo... momentum!!!!" then you also have to accept that when the next poll comes out and shows 5% rising to 15% you look like a tit.

[H_B]

How many points is it? 30?, 20? 17? 10? 5?

Taking an average of all available polling data I think it's about 13%. Give or take.

Maybe a bit more actually... could be closer to 15%. Haven't worked it out recently adding in the last 2 or 3 polls.

[renton]

Yes, I'm fine with WoS being a propaganda blog without a shred of credibility. It's what it is. A bit like the Celtic fan bigot websites having the odd useful nuggest of information during the Rangers crisis.

But it's not a news source. It's a guy with a keyboard and a very transparent agenda. No different from the likes of Colkitto on here, except better at it.

My point on polling is now, as it has always been, that you either accept all of the data or none of it. I'm happy with both. Where you look ridiculous is where you, like the SNP have tried to do, pretend the nasty ones don't exist, or find a way to discredit them, and cherry pick the couple a year which are best for you as the actual picture.

Obviously the SNP have to do this - they aren't going to say "we are getting our asses whipped here" on their website. But when people here do it, it's point and laugh time.

Which is why i have taken the complete piss out of Archie Guevara and Colkitto for pretending things were getting really tight, all to play for etc. by picking only the Panelbase data and discounting all of the many other polls that show No disappearing over a distant horizon.

Once you start looking at graphs and saying "ooh... it was 20%, now it's down to 5%.. woohoo... momentum!!!!" then you also have to accept that when the next poll comes out and shows 5% rising to 15% you look like a tit.

Pretty much everyone does. From either side of any debate, anywhere. You naturally pick a tthe data to give yourself the best public image. For what it's worth, I do wonder to what extent the polls influence the people, such that the TNS '25%' poll might dissuade people from voting, or voting yes due to the image of the Yes campaign as dead in the water. Personally, I don't think it does, but it's an argument to be had. Due to the length of the campaign and the time between milestones - for example, the white paper - we've all become amatuer pollsters, but it looks like most of the data is junk.

[H_B]

Pretty much everyone does. From either side of any debate, anywhere. You naturally pick a tthe data to give yourself the best public image. For what it's worth, I do wonder to what extent the polls influence the people, such that the TNS '25%' poll might dissuade people from voting, or voting yes due to the image of the Yes campaign as dead in the water. Personally, I don't think it does, but it's an argument to be had. Due to the length of the campaign and the time between milestones - for example, the white paper - we've all become amatuer pollsters, but it looks like most of the data is junk.

The point is, No supporters don't have to. That's why they are in the box seat.

No can magnanimously say "We'll look at all available polling data, even that commissioned by the SNP and take an average". It's a much much more honest approach. Even taking into account the SNP poll, No are still completely validated by the data.

Yes supporters have to make themselves look utterly ridiculous, like Colkitto has tied himself in horrible knots here, by finding ways to discredit TNS, IPSOS, YouGov, Ashcroft etc. whilst championing Panelbase to the exclusion of all others, including even Panelbase polling commissioned by the SNP with the most evident form of junk data collection.

There's no question that polls are absolutely great for the No/BT campaign. And really bad news for the SNP, who must dread each one coming out that they themselves haven't manipulated.

[Colkitto]

Yes, I'm fine with WoS being a propaganda blog without a shred of credibility. It's what it is. A bit like the Celtic fan bigot websites having the odd useful nuggest of information during the Rangers crisis.

But it's not a news source. It's a guy with a keyboard and a very transparent agenda. No different from the likes of Colkitto on here, except better at it.

My point on polling is now, as it has always been, that you either accept all of the data or none of it. I'm happy with both. Where you look ridiculous is where you, like the SNP have tried to do, pretend the nasty ones don't exist, or find a way to discredit them, and cherry pick the couple a year which are best for you as the actual picture.

Obviously the SNP have to do this - they aren't going to say "we are getting our asses whipped here" on their website. But when people here do it, it's point and laugh time.

Which is why i have taken the complete piss out of Archie Guevara and Colkitto for pretending things were getting really tight, all to play for etc. by picking only the Panelbase data and discounting all of the many other polls that show No disappearing over a distant horizon.

Once you start looking at graphs and saying "ooh... it was 20%, now it's down to 5%.. woohoo... momentum!!!!" then you also have to accept that when the next poll comes out and shows 5% rising to 15% you look like a tit.

Brilliant! But what a load of guff

Now, do you disagree with anything in the WoS article?

[H_B]

Brilliant! But what a load of guff

Now, do you disagree with anything in the WoS article?

I didn't read it.

Just to refresh my memory, are you saying all polling data is important or none of it? Which side are you on?

[Colkitto]

I didn't read it.

Just to refresh my memory, are you saying all polling data is important or none of it? Which side are you on?

[Reynard]

You'll be voting bright and early make no mistake. Any too cool for school posturing is totally at odds with an opportunity to joyfully hammer a nail in a fat buckled lefties coffin.

Take it easy at the squash though- as a massive heart attack would be the only thing to keep you from marking X in the no box!

No I won't.

I never do.

If I do vote, I'll certainly be voting no alongside the vast majority of my fellow countrymen and women.

[H_B]

Pretty much everyone does. From either side of any debate, anywhere. You naturally pick a tthe data to give yourself the best public image. For what it's worth, I do wonder to what extent the polls influence the people, such that the TNS '25%' poll might dissuade people from voting, or voting yes due to the image of the Yes campaign as dead in the water. Personally, I don't think it does, but it's an argument to be had. Due to the length of the campaign and the time between milestones - for example, the white paper - we've all become amatuer pollsters, but it looks like most of the data is junk.

In other words, if we play ten times at tennis and I win 9 times and you win once, it would be like you saying "we don't know who is better at tennis - some times I win, sometimes HB wins"

Well, that's true.. however...

[H_B]

Just to refresh my memory, are you saying all polling data is important or none of it? Which side are you on?

[Colkitto]

Just to refresh my memory, are you saying all polling data is important or none of it? Which side are you on?

Are you going to read the WoS article? I'm very interested in your view on this...

[H_B]

Are you going to read the WoS article? I'm very interested in your view on this...

I will promise to read the article, and comment on my take on it, if you answer the question I have posed and 1 follow up question.

Deal?