DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Who is banking on there being as much income from oil? It's a general comment - not aimed at any specific government - I mean any government elected, be it in the UK or in an IScotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Homer Thompson Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Well, it means an iScotland would be enormously reliant on oil revenue to pay the bills. The UK certainly isn't. "Over the past five years the average annual tax revenue from oil and gas has been £9.4bn. This represents only 1.7% of onshore tax revenues for the UK in 2011-12 but 20% of onshore tax revenues for Scotland." Professor David Bell noted that the volatility of oil-based tax revenues makes "longer term planning for public services … pretty fraught http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201213/ldselect/ldeconaf/152/15206.htm#note94 No, they are reliant on obscene levels of borrowing, even with oil revenue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The oil and gas industry accounts for 450 000 jobs throughout the UK. It's a huge industry and a massive benefit for the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The current Scottish Government. I don't remember that being their line on oil, I do recall them regularly saying that it's a welcome bonus that every country would be delighted to have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 I don't remember that being their line on oil, I do recall them regularly saying that it's a welcome bonus that every country would be delighted to have. The SG's economic forecasts have been based on laughably optimistic estimates of oil and gas revenues. It also completely underpins proposed social measures. It's not a nice bonus for a Scottish economy. It's vital to allow us to pay the bills. Without NS incomes an indy Scotland would be facing incredible cuts to balance the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
git-intae-thum Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The SG's economic forecasts have been based on laughably optimistic estimates of oil and gas revenues. It also completely underpins proposed social measures. It's not a nice bonus for a Scottish economy. It's vital to allow us to pay the bills. Without NS incomes an indy Scotland would be facing incredible cuts to balance the books. Can you provide the figures to prove that assertion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The SG's economic forecasts have been based on laughably optimistic estimates of oil and gas revenues. It also completely underpins proposed social measures. It's not a nice bonus for a Scottish economy. It's vital to allow us to pay the bills. Without NS incomes an indy Scotland would be facing incredible cuts to balance the books. How well have rUK balanced the books? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Can you provide the figures to prove that assertion. Scotland already spends more than it brings in, based on the last GERS figures. And that includes a geographical share of NS oil income. Which as documented on the earlier page is a massive part of a putative iScotland's income. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 How well have rUK balanced the books? Not very. But can you please evidence your claim that oil revenues would be a "nice bonus" for a Scottish Government, and not critical to the provision of services? What would you be cutting from the Scottish budget to account for the loss of this many billions in revenue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Scotland already spends more than it brings in, based on the last GERS figures. And that includes a geographical share of NS oil income. Which as documented on the earlier page is a massive part of a putative iScotland's income. rUK already spends more than it brings in and that includes ALL the NS oil income, what's your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Not very. But can you please evidence your claim that oil revenues would be a "nice bonus" for a Scottish Government, and not critical to the provision of services? What would you be cutting from the Scottish budget to account for the loss of this many billions in revenue? What would rUK cut from their budget if they were not allowed to count on borrowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 rUK already spends more than it brings in and that includes ALL the NS oil income, what's your point. The UK is much bigger than Scotland and has its own currency. It also has very low borrowing terms. Now, for the third time, how are iScotland going to pay the bills after removing oil revenues from the budget? You know this "nice bonus"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 What would rUK cut from their budget if they were not allowed to count on borrowing? Ah, so your plan is for iScotland to maintain current spending plans and borrow from the markets to meet the massive shortfall? Good oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisal Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The SG's economic forecasts have been based on laughably optimistic estimates of oil and gas revenues. It also completely underpins proposed social measures. It's not a nice bonus for a Scottish economy. It's vital to allow us to pay the bills. Without NS incomes an indy Scotland would be facing incredible cuts to balance the books. You see this goes back to my original post. That is exactly what is facing the UK at the moment. Why are there not daily stories about this just now. The Uk gov. is still borrowing £100bn p.a. It seems to me that if we (the UK) had paid as much attention to what our recent and current politicians are doing as we do to what future Scottish politicians might do we would be better off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The UK is much bigger than Scotland and has its own currency. It also has very low borrowing terms. Now, for the third time, how are iScotland going to pay the bills after removing oil revenues from the budget? You know this "nice bonus"? Oh yes, being bigger is obviously proved to be such a positive that it's requiring to borrow £2billion a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 You see this goes back to my original post. That is exactly what is facing the UK at the moment. Uh huh. And as a massive economy, with its own currency and very preferential borrowing terms, the UK can deal with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Ah, so your plan is for iScotland to maintain current spending plans and borrow from the markets to meet the massive shortfall? Good oh. That's what you do in years where your income doesn't cover spending. In the years where we have a shortfall the oil will allow us to borrow less and when we don't have a shortfall it will all be there for us to do as we please with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 Uh huh. And as a massive economy, with its own currency and very preferential borrowing terms, the UK can deal with this. As can iScotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 That's what you do in years where your income doesn't cover spending. In the years where we have a shortfall the oil will allow us to borrow less and when we don't have a shortfall it will all be there for us to do as we please with it. That's assuming you can build up a significant oil fund (we could go on all day about that strand of the argument) - even then I think it's bad economics to use it to cover shortfalls in current expenditure or to boost current expenditure. Capital expenditure is a different kettle of fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thisal Posted August 22, 2014 Share Posted August 22, 2014 The SG's economic forecasts have been based on laughably optimistic estimates of oil and gas revenues. It also completely underpins proposed social measures. It's not a nice bonus for a Scottish economy. It's vital to allow us to pay the bills. Without NS incomes an indy Scotland would be facing incredible cuts to balance the books. Uh huh. And as a massive economy, with its own currency and very preferential borrowing terms, the UK can deal with this. I think you'll find there are plenty experts that will say that the Uk can't continue borrowing current ammounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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