Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[pandarilla]

I'm not a neutral. I want to vote No but couldn't go on defending the indefensible anymore. I'm a British patriot but I can't go on condemning Scots to foodbanks etc. Now I'm not saying Scotland won't have foodbanks, but I do know that the Tories don't have much of an appetite to remove them.

I do really fucking hate wasters but hopefully future Scottish governments won't be too soft on benefit cheats.

Were you not indiscriminately slagging off poor folk and 'shite-hole areas' the other day?

You seem pretty inconsistent with your opinions.

[Mr Bairn]

I was slagging off the layabouts and druggies, not the deserving poor

[Blaven]

I'm not a neutral. I want to vote No but couldn't go on defending the indefensible anymore. I'm a British patriot but I can't go on condemning Scots to foodbanks etc. Now I'm not saying Scotland won't have foodbanks, but I do know that the Tories don't have much of an appetite to remove them.

I do really fucking hate wasters but hopefully future Scottish governments won't be too soft on benefit cheats.

Naw, naw, naw. You must vote naw.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I believe there is a big difference in the public perception in relation to Westminster and Holyrood. And this is one of the reasons why so many people are going to vote Yes in September. Westminster is despised, and rightly so in my opinion.

Holyrood politicians are despised as well - trust me.

[vikingTON]

Holyrood politicians are despised as well - trust me.

Think we'll trust weighted evidence such as approval ratings over the undoubtedly weighty judgement of your opinion, thanks anyway.

[speckled tangerine]

I was slagging off the layabouts and druggies, not the deserving poor

Jesus. "The deserving poor".

That really is a fucking disgusting phrase that conjures up a world before the Beveridge report, tugging the forelock and avoiding the poorhouse.

When benefit advisors are under pressure to hit targets for "sanctions" on the apparent "undeserving poor" I'd hate to hit the skids these days.

Let's face it. We're all two paychecks away from the cardboard box Hilton.

[LinkinFighter]

He's admitted many times that he is trolling. He is best ignored along with the likes of HB.

[Blaven]

Jesus. "The deserving poor".

That really is a fucking disgusting phrase that conjures up a world before the Beveridge report, tugging the forelock and avoiding the poorhouse.

When benefit advisors are under pressure to hit targets for "sanctions" on the apparent "undeserving poor" I'd hate to hit the skids these days.

Let's face it. We're all two paychecks away from the cardboard box Hilton.

Mr bairn's not that far of wanting some kind of cleansing to take place, going by her comments.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Ad Lib can't separate the question of "who makes our decisions", which is what this vote is about, from "what decisions will the SNP/Labour/Tories make" which is NOT the question facing people.

In fairness most people can't separate the issues either which is why everyone seems to be getting tied in knots about so called uncertainty.

This vote is about who makes the decisions affecting us.

That's it. No uncertainty. It'll either be Holyrood or Westminster.

Exactly how can that be made any clearer?

We're not voting on EU membership, which currency we'll use, removing trident or the myriad of other bizarre things people want to get bogged down over.

In 2016 we'll have an election at which point we WILL be voting for those things.

It is astonishing that people are struggling with this concept.

Totally disagree.

I actually believe decisions can be made at different levels - it should not be a choice between a centralising Westminster or a centralising Holyrood.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Your right insofar as I would never trust Scottish labour to ever do anything at Holyrood without asking westminsters permission first.

SNP will never have to bend-over first, before they change anything.

Instead they'll jump on whatever populist bandwagon they can find.

Now which other party does that remind me of?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

You're an absolute shitebag. Voters on both sides deserve hundreds of times the credit that you do.

Pardon?

Shitebag?

I'm entitled to my opinion as anyone else you arse.

[Mr Bairn]

Scottish sub-samples of UK-wide polls are too small to be treated with any credibility. Although I do think that when pollsters do a referendum poll they ought to ask about 2015 voting intentions as well

[Mr Bairn]

I actually feel 1.61% dumber after reading this piece

http://www.scotlandvotes.com/blog/germany-vs-scotland-and-the-indyref

[Mr Bairn]

Obviously, I also agree about future voting intentions when weighting polls.

The point being YouGov are no longer credible, their data collection polls an inordinate amount of Labour pensioners and Kellner is playing politics with the referendum, rather than doing his job. It was no surprise that Yougov released two polls (back to back) in early July to try and stem momentum.

Labour won't be returned as the largest party as JoLa isn't electable.

No, but Labour probably will probably top the 2015 poll in Scotland, assuming a No vote is indeed returned. I don't think Kellner is rigging his polls on purpose, I mean yougov was the only site that didn't overestimate the SNP by nearly 10% in the EU poll

[HaikuHibee]

No, but Labour probably will probably top the 2015 poll in Scotland, assuming a No vote is indeed returned.

Depends on UKIP. Tories could claw their way back. Labour could collapse.

[Mr Bairn]

Depends on UKIP. Tories could claw their way back. Labour could collapse.

Jesus, can you actually fucking read, you cretin?

The Tories certainly won't be "clawing their way back" from 4th in the popular vote and 1 seat and certainly nothing in Scotland is going to "depend on UKIP"

[Confidemus]

I actually feel 1.61% dumber after reading this piece

http://www.scotlandvotes.com/blog/germany-vs-scotland-and-the-indyref

Christ, that's you down to 4.21% worth of sense left.

You're about to run out.

[thepundit]

The Tories certainly won't be "clawing their way back" from 4th in the popular vote and 1 seat and certainly nothing in Scotland is going to "depend on UKIP"

The Conservative vote has been increasing in Scotland and whilst I agree they have no hope of victory in the next election, I bet they get yet another increase as UKIP brought a lot of non-voters to the table for the European elections. A lot of those voters will then tactically vote Conservative. (followed by Labour as a UKIP voter will likely back a Unionist party).

[Mr Bairn]

Approx. 110 polls have been carried out in scotland approx. Each of them a No Vote wins. But each poll has a basic sample size of 1000 people. Therefore (lets be daring and say that 65% of people are voting no) that means that from these polls, 110000 people have been asked what they are voting. Assuming 65% of these people are voting No, that give us a grand total of approx 7,1500 people in Scotland are voting no.

Therefore

71500 is what percent of 5300000

= 71500 / 5300000

= 0.013491

Converting decimal to a percentage:

0.013491 * 100 = 1.35%

So basically from the polls, 1.35% of Scottish people who have been asked what they will vote in the referendum have said they will vote no.

1.35% of Scotland is not 60% of Scotland.

I'm actually astounded at your basic lack of understanding of statistical mathematics. Who said that 60% of people had already been polled? A very big assumption you're making kills the argument stone dead anyway, not to mention the fact that you don't appear to have read a single sampling theorem in your lifetime. Shocking.

The Conservative vote has been increasing in Scotland and whilst I agree they have no hope of victory in the next election, I bet they get yet another increase as UKIP brought a lot of non-voters to the table for the European elections. A lot of those voters will then tactically vote Conservative. (followed by Labour as a UKIP voter will likely back a Unionist party).

Oh Christ. Just what we needed this lunch time, a bowl of Unionist word salad!

[P45]

Such is the hatred towards the Tories if Scottish people are left with the straight option of at least 4 more years of a Tory government or Independence the majority of Labour voters will take Independence.