Latest Polls and Latest Odds

[banterman86]

Wow. H_B quotes FORMER Yes Scotland Director of Communications, who's less than complimentary about the Yes hierarchy!

What next, fire? The wheel?

He won't be the first or last to have a "tantrum" as the Herald called it, about his former employer. The management in my last place of work were dicks. Does this make me an "expert"?

He's making statements of fact though - is he telling the truth?

[Confidemus]

He's making statements of fact though - is he telling the truth?

He's bad mouthing his former employer. We've all done it.

[banterman86]

He's bad mouthing his former employer. We've all done it.

But he's also making statements of fact. His outburst was unhelpful for yes but the question is if what he's saying is true.

If it is, then the suggestion that Yes is effectively being run by the SNP seems pretty valid.

[Confidemus]

But he's also making statements of fact. His outburst was unhelpful for yes but the question is if what he's saying is true.

If it is, then the suggestion that Yes is effectively being run by the SNP seems pretty valid.

I was making statements of fact when I said that the management in my former place of employment were dicks.

Have you never badmouthed a former employer?

[H_B]

I was making statements of fact when I said that the management in my former place of employment were dicks.

Have you never badmouthed a former employer?

It's really no wonder even your fellow Yes-ites think you are an irritating clown.

[Confidemus]

It's really no wonder even your fellow Yes-ites think you are an irritating clown.

Gee, thanks x x

[banterman86]

I was making statements of fact when I said that the management in my former place of employment were dicks.

Well, that's subjective. He'smaking clear statements of fact. is he wrong?

[Confidemus]

Well, that's subjective. He'smaking clear statements of fact. is he wrong?

I would say, with some degree of confidence, that he's being impulsive and a tad impetuous.

[banterman86]

I would say, with some degree of confidence, that he's being impulsive and a tad impetuous.

But crucially, neither worng nor lying in his assertion the SNP effectively run Yes?

[Colkitto]

[Confidemus]

I'll save H_B and Ad Lib a job.

But.. but.. but... weighting... methods... scrutiny... not official. Does that about cover it?

[Colkitto]

I'll save H_B and Ad Lib a job.

But.. but.. but... weighting... methods... scrutiny... not official. Does that about cover it?

True, but you would be foolish to ignore these findings completely

[renton]

I'll save H_B and Ad Lib a job.

But.. but.. but... weighting... methods... scrutiny... not official. Does that about cover it?

Well, it isn't. There is no demogrpahic weighting applied, hence it isn't a snapshot of Scottish public opinion - but then again, it isn't meant to be either. I understand that some people believe folk will say whatever they think a canvasser wants to here, but I've never been convinced by that argument - otherwise you'd see 90/10 splits all over the place, and maybe there are folk like that but the size of the sample - 8,000 people, should help filter that uncertainty to a lower level.

The RIC I think, are a hugely important part of the campaign, they are highlighting and engaging with those parts of Scotland that are disenfranchised and who ar eopen to ideas about a different Scotland. If you can get and keep this demographic engaged and registered, then it could be a big stength for Yes.

[Lex]

I never realised we were posting non weighted polls in here. Since we are:

http://insidemoray.co.uk/moray-schools-referendum-resounding-no-to-independence/

Across 8 high schools in the SNP heartland of Moray (Angus Robertson's constituency) 1712 students who will be eligible to vote in September voted in a mock referendum and returned the following result:

71.3% No

28.7% Yes

Ouch.

Edited June 25, 2014 by Lex

[renton]

I never realised we were posting non weighted polls in here. Since we are:

http://insidemoray.co.uk/moray-schools-referendum-resounding-no-to-independence/

Across 8 high schools in the SNP heartland of Moray (Angus Robertson's constituency) 1712 students who will be eligible to vote in September voted in a mock referendum and returned the following result:

71.3% No

28.7% Yes

Ouch.

Well, to be strictly accurate, only 964 out of 1713 cast votes (a turnout of 56%).

School canvassing seems to be highly variable across the country, but certainly the 16-17 year olds are definitely not a leading demographic in favour of yes.

[renton]

If I had to guess, I'd say there is little chance of rural areas voting Yes, irrespective of the SNP's stranglehold on the area. I'd reckon whatever strength the independence argument has, is based on urban environments, and particularly around old Labour strongholds

[Tio Pepe]

If I had to guess, I'd say there is little chance of rural areas voting Yes, irrespective of the SNP's stranglehold on the area. I'd reckon whatever strength the independence argument has, is based on urban environments, and particularly around old Labour strongholds

That has to be the independence campaign's focal point - Labour urban areas. You might cynically suggest targetting those who believe they have most to gain personally from independence. Regardless of the moral high ground many take with statements like it's not about money, personal gain, etc, most people are heavily influenced by what they perceive an outcome will do for their pockets.

I would guess most rural areas are effectively Conservative but as voting Conservative is so last year in Scotland they turned to the SNP. That could explain the disparity between the SNP vote and the polling for the referendum.

[Confidemus]

Regardless of the moral high ground many take with statements like it's not about money, personal gain, etc, most people are heavily influenced by what they perceive an outcome will do for their pockets.

My Yes vote has precisely zero to do with personal gain or loss. Whatever way the country votes it will have little or no effect on my personal circumstances. Most Yes voters, especially on here, I suspect are the same.

[Tio Pepe]

My Yes vote has precisely zero to do with personal gain or loss. Whatever way the country votes it will have little or no effect on my personal circumstances. Most Yes voters, especially on here, I suspect are the same.

I suspect you are incorrect. Political parties and campaigners would not spend so much time talking about tax rates and policy, spending, how the 'average family' will benefit, etc if they didn't believe it was a huge issue for so many voters. I spend a lot of time working with politicians of all shades and, especially at election times, they can almost become obsessed with convincing the masses they will be better off because all their info. suggests it is a big vote winner.

[renton]

That has to be the independence campaign's focal point - Labour urban areas. You might cynically suggest targetting those who believe they have most to gain personally from independence. Regardless of the moral high ground many take with statements like it's not about money, personal gain, etc, most people are heavily influenced by what they perceive an outcome will do for their pockets.

I would guess most rural areas are effectively Conservative but as voting Conservative is so last year in Scotland they turned to the SNP. That could explain the disparity between the SNP vote and the polling for the referendum.

certainly plausible in some places like Angus. I do think BT have been succesful in pushing EU uncertainty in these areas, and for them that's massive, both in terms of access to markets and EU subsidies. A lot of these guys live on narrow margins as it is. Alongsid ethat is the Yes campaigns failure to push how often Farmers (and fishermen) in Scotland have been fucked over in UK negotiations at European level over the years, and how independence would increase their direct represnetation at these negotiations.

They are hanging onto what they've got and you can't really blame them for that, but it's kind of like hanging onto an ever diminishing sand bar as the tide comes in.

Still, I don't think rural areas will return too many Yes votes on the day.