forza ton Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Twitter bud Cheers but I can't find any mention of it on sky twitter 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Further to your earlier post, how are things looking over on Oddschecker now Comedius? http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome Or is it all just all a load of sh*te now ? Billy big baws now eh? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 But I thought all the momentum was with yes? All these polls basically lie within the nineteen times out of twenty margin of error of each other. If the visit by the three Westminster leaders doesn't shift things (bit skeptical but stranger things have happened) then it will probably all revolve around turnout levels. If things follow their usual pattern No will win as things stand right now based on there being significantly higher turnouts amongst OAPs and in affluent areas. If the interest level lives up to the hype in other segments of the population it's probably going to be good news for the Yes camp. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 We are in a propaganda war right now and in any war the first casualty is the truth. Take everything with a pinch of salt and follow your instincts and what you actually see on the ground. We know it's a close race because we SEE the panic from the No campaign and Westminster. It's all to play for and don't get too hung up on polls - even the good ones! Polls will be manipulated and if the turnout is 80% polling 1,000 people kinda loses accuracy compared to a 50% - 60% turnout. The next poll from say ICM could show Yes on 52%/53% and it still will be a close run thing. Yes it's a confidence booster when your side is ahead in the polls. But unless there is a huge lead for either side then it's all to play for... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm a wee bit disappointed by the negativity that's creeping in. By all accounts the momentum is still with the YES campaign, I don't think we should allow one poll to distract from that. It may be a good thing if it stops complacency and encourages YES voters to get out on polling day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm a wee bit disappointed by the negativity that's creeping in. By all accounts the momentum is still with the YES campaign, I don't think we should allow one poll to distract from that. It may be a good thing if it stops complacency and encourages YES voters to get out on polling day. So much this. Time to dig in and keep the heads up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Survation tables are here: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Headline-Referenedum-Vote-Table.pdf The comment above about a large swing among 16-24 that is magnified by weighting appears to have some substance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Well Well Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I have only been warning about this for the last week we need to guard against complacency which seemed to be creeping in a wee bit after the YouGov poll. Too many people were thinking the war was won. That was only a small battle and a morale booster. The doom mongers are fighting with dirty trick propaganda using the media as their tool of delivery. The next week is all about the hard work on the doorsteps and each one of us in our workplaces etc spreading the word that Independence is the way forward. Get the heads up and start campaigning yourselves. Get the feet on the ground ignore all the polls and just keep the hard work going. It will be worth it even if we only sway a handful of voters each, that all builds up and in a week that could be the difference between Yes and No. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Survation tables are here: http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Headline-Referenedum-Vote-Table.pdf The comment above about a large swing among 16-24 that is magnified by weighting appears to have some substance. Can someone explain this weighting thing? It looks like the 16-24 group are about 51-32 NO. Does this not fly in the face of all the other polls so far? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christophe Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 A % of people stood in the ballot box staring at a leap in to the unknown will always end up bottling it. Reckon the Yes's need to be at the V least 55/45 up in the polls to stand a chance of winning. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Can someone explain this weighting thing? It looks like the 16-24 group are about 51-32 NO. Does this not fly in the face of all the other polls so far? It does and some of the regional variations look a bit suspect as well. On weighting the pollster adjusts the raw numbers that they get to better fit the demographics and 2011 voting patterns of the electorate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuckleMoo Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm a wee bit disappointed by the negativity that's creeping in. By all accounts the momentum is still with the YES campaign, I don't think we should allow one poll to distract from that. It may be a good thing if it stops complacency and encourages YES voters to get out on polling day. I don't think it's the poll but rather the media onslaught that has got some (including myself) a bit down. And we've got another 7 days of it. Don't get me wrong, I'm absolutely committed and nothing will change that. My fear is that this must be having an affect on others. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Can someone explain this weighting thing? It looks like the 16-24 group are about 51-32 NO. Does this not fly in the face of all the other polls so far? I presume 16-24s made up a smaller %age of the survation poll than they do the electorate so their polling stats had to be bumped up. As renton said, with a smaller group polled, the uncertainity would go up massively, so even moderate errors amongst the 16-24 group will be magnified once that groups voting is weighted. Si if that massive swing amonst young voters towards No, isn't real, and just an anomaly based of too few respondents, then the gap will be mcuh closer than the poll suggests. As others have said, there will still be ups and downs. Polls don't win votes. Keep the heads up and do everything you can between now and 10pm next Thursday. If we keep fighting, we can win. If we stop, we won't win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamaldo Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I don't think it's the poll but rather the media onslaught that has got some (including myself) a bit down. And we've got another 7 days of it. Don't get me wrong, I'm absolutely committed and nothing will change that. My fear is that this must be having an affect on others. Make no mistake. Salmond and the wider Yes campaign will have been absolutely prepared for this. It will not have come as a surprise to them. I have no doubt that confirmed Yes voters will not be swayed back to No. It really is about how the undecideds react to the onslaught. Some of them will be angry about it and will vote Yes and others will buy it and vote No. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boabinoban Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Many thanks. To be honest my head is already done in with this. Seriously thinking about unplugging from the news coverage as I'm finding I'm getting more and more disgusted with it. My mind is already made up and nothing from the no camp is going to change that. I'm not far behind you on that. Today's parade of nauseating, orchestrated, unadulterated muck has just melted my brain. It's a fucking barrage of sycophantic, condescending, manipulative guff that has completely taken over the media. The negativity towards Yes is disgusting. this is half of the population we're talking about here getting rag dolled by an incessant wave of biased crap. BUT, on the other hand, I'm thinking that the postal ballot may just have come a bit too early for these wankers, and their panicky tsunami of patronising let's have a fucking British football team SHITE may just have been a bit in vain. There is still hope alright. I feel better after that 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colkitto Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Two things have pissed me off. The poll coming out as it did is fine. Not too fussed about 53:47 Firstly Survation hyping the f**k out of what was a nothing result is very frustrating. "Quite something" means you expect one side or the other to show a marked increase or collapse. No change is anything but exciting. That sort of shite we can do without thanks very much. Secondly, the over reliance on what faulty pollsters are saying is getting beyond a joke. ICM, Survation, Panelbase, YouGov, etc. Not a single one of them has a fucking clue what is going on. Not one of them. All of them repeatedly show massive and completely ludicrous swings in support. Every one of them is using a sample size for each category which is clearly too small to be reliable. If they are polling close to each other then that's because of fortuitous cancelling of errors. Either way they could easily all be talking shite. People are putting WAY too much emphasis on these results. Yes it's nice to see one go in our favour but even if the pollsters are correct, this is tight as a gnats chuff. Nothing has changed tonight. Nothing whatsoever. Good post 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ando Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I had a poll of sorts at work today and almost every person surprised me so I'm absolutely fcuked if I can call how this is going to go. We had a department day out bullshit thing then food after, I made a wee comment about this being the Yes side of the table based on myself and a few others I assumed were good guys, and almost everyone who has a vote said something along the lines of "well I better move to the other side then". My boss was 100% No the last time we talked, right into his investments and has the Aberdeen standard massive mortgage and private school fees. Told me today he has already voted Yes. Boy at same level as me, bit of a mini me in relation to my boss, middle class personified. I always assumed he was No but today he tells me he's 100% Yes and always has been. French bird who works for me, tidy but looks a bit like a horse from certain angles, always assumed from our chats she was a good guy, she's deffo a No. Cheval. Rough bird, said she was undecided but I thought she was leaning to Yes is 100% No. Weird boy, thought he was a mute and wouldn't bother, he's 100% Yes. English boy 1, was 80% No last year, now he's 100% Yes. English boy 2, new boy, 100% No. Posh boy, was 50/50 before but confirms today he's 100% Yes. Weegie Sevco, 100% No, surprisingly. Spanish, Jordanian, Indian and Canadian (one per country) didn't think it was right they should vote so didn't register, they got telt. So, 14 of us, I thought it would be 50/50 at best but its actually 60/40 Yes excluding the four not registered. Seems really pointless now I've typed this out to be fair. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuckleMoo Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm not far behind you on that. Today's parade of nauseating, orchestrated, unadulterated muck has just melted my brain. It's a fucking barrage of sycophantic, condescending, manipulative guff that has completely taken over the media. The negativity towards Yes is disgusting. this is half of the population we're talking about here getting rag dolled by an incessant wave of biased crap. BUT, on the other hand, I'm thinking that the postal ballot may just have come a bit too early for these wankers, and their panicky tsunami of patronising let's have a fucking British football team SHITE may just have been a bit in vain. There is still hope alright. I feel better after that I feel better for that as well 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 I'm not far behind you on that. Today's parade of nauseating, orchestrated, unadulterated muck has just melted my brain. It's a fucking barrage of sycophantic, condescending, manipulative guff that has completely taken over the media. The negativity towards Yes is disgusting. this is half of the population we're talking about here getting rag dolled by an incessant wave of biased crap. Classic example here : http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04gbgrp Scroll to 27 mins and listen to Ian from Burnley. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boabinoban Posted September 10, 2014 Share Posted September 10, 2014 Classic example here : http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04gbgrp Scroll to 27 mins and listen to Ian from Burnley. Quite literally jaw just dropped. Almost speechless. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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