Banterous Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 They do have the slightest clue what is happening The reason Yes is being pushed out and No shortened, is because the boomakers consider the chances of Yes winning to be decreasing. That was cruel 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 The reason Yes is being pushed out and No shortened, is because the boomakers consider the chances of Yes winning to be decreasing. ...or they stand to lose a lot of money if No wins and therefore want to attract more bets on the Yes side. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 They do have the slightest clue what is happening The reason Yes is being pushed out and No shortened, is because the boomakers consider the chances of Yes winning to be decreasing. That's not what I asked. I'm aware of how the mechanics work. On what grounds? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheScarf Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Yes will win IMVHAPO (in my very honest and personal opinion). 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mo Wonderboy Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 I can tell you first hand that the bookies are struggling with the trading of the vote today and are working on a mostly reactionary basis now. Lay to a certain loss then chop and so forth. Could easy see a big swing wither way in the betting over the course of the day. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 That's not what I asked. I'm aware of how the mechanics work. On what grounds? Yeah, I didn't think I'd get anything from H_B on the above. Funny that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Yeah, I didn't think I'd get anything from H_B on the above. Funny that. On the grounds that they don't believe Yes is going to win. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 On the grounds that they don't believe Yes is going to win. In proper P&B style - you sir, are scrambling for relevance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 In proper P&B style - you sir, are scrambling for relevance. Correct. It takes a Yes voter to spot the shortcomings of a No voter. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fanny paddery Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Suppose so. In fact, it might be a Eurovision scenario where they bet right through as the results come in. betfair going unmanaged right through until final result 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 In proper P&B style - you sir, are scrambling for relevance. Yes, I'm sure there is another reason for bookmakers increasing the odds on Yes. Hint - there isn't. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaven Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 The odds will probably be sett by someone in London with his finger on the pulse at Westminster. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H Wragg Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Think Evening Standard just had an Ipos- Mori one. If so, it was 53:47 for No, based on what I saw elsewhere.Exit poll results can't be made public until after 10pm. I don't think there was a 53-47 yesterday (3 x 52-48 and a 51-49 IIRC) so I'm unsure where that has come from. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 HB is looking at this from a calculative perspective and some of the Yessers are challenging him. The "emotional" sh**e is out of place though. It is interesting the assumptions the No side have made around "quiet" voters and the reverse swing. I'm not keen on assumptions However the Edinburgh University study showing youngsters voting No is another contradiction to the established view. Objectively I think it'll be a No narrow victory. This article is interesting although the No estimations are overly optimistic: http://www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/scots-independence/60436/scottish-independence-odds-bookmakers-shorten-odds-on-no 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 Yes, I'm sure there is another reason for bookmakers increasing the odds on Yes. Hint - there isn't. Yeah but still not answering the actual question are you? What information are they going on to make them think it is more likely that No will win? There is nothing to go on - other than the amount they would lose if No win. HB is looking at this from a calculative perspective and some of the Yessers are challenging him. The "emotional" sh**e is out of place though. It is interesting the assumptions the No side have made around "quiet" voters and the reverse swing. I'm not keen on assumptions However the Edinburgh University study showing youngsters voting No is another contradiction to the established view. Objectively I think it'll be a No narrow victory. This article is interesting although the No estimations are overly optimistic: http://www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/scots-independence/60436/scottish-independence-odds-bookmakers-shorten-odds-on-no If you'd been on this forum for longer than 10 minutes or actually had bothered reading some of the threads - you'd find that plenty of us have been saying that 16-17 year olds are a stronger No than many other age groups. So whatever view you think is 'established', it is only established in your head. H_B said there was zero chance of a Yes victory only a few weeks ago. He, like the entire British establishment, the mainstream media, and most of all the BT campaign have been absolutely shiting themselves recently. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Holiday Song Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 They do have the slightest clue what is happening The reason Yes is being pushed out and No shortened, is because the boomakers consider the chances of Yes winning to be decreasing. I’m quite happy to be corrected here but think you’re wrong – the odds are what they are because, for whatever reason, they know this is the optimum position in terms of making them a guaranteed profit (this would be easier to do in a two horse race than a larger field). It’s surely just a case of a graph based on a supply and demand curve, tweaked to their operating environment. Again though, fair enough if this is nonsense. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banterous Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 (edited) Yeah but still not answering the actual question are you? What information are they going on to make them think it is more likely that No will win? There is nothing to go on - other than the amount they would lose if No win. If you'd been on this forum for longer than 10 minutes or actually had bothered reading some of the threads - you'd find that plenty of us have been saying that 16-17 year olds are a stronger No than many other age groups. So whatever view you think is 'established', it is only established in your head. H_B said there was zero chance of a Yes victory only a few weeks ago. He, like the entire British establishment, the mainstream media, and most of all the BT campaign have been absolutely shiting themselves recently. I'm new to the forum so I hadn't read that previously but I did anticipate your venomous and tear stained reaction. The article is interesting because it's relevant to the thread and a lot of what the experts say may be wrong although betting odds tend to be accurate. I think you'll find that most people thought it would be tight Edited September 18, 2014 by Banterous 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Milners Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 (edited) If the Polls are right then I can see the No winning by 4 or 5% but when I look at the social media I don't think the Polls are right. The amount of yes I see is unbelievable in these social media of twitter/facebook but maybe its more the younger will more likely vote for yes and the more older people that don't use social media much will more likely vote for a no. My family is split 50/50. Not much sleep last night and hope to get a few hours tonight before the count, really want a yes to win. Edited September 18, 2014 by Milners 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confidemus Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 H_B said there was zero chance of a Yes victory only a few weeks ago. He, like the entire British establishment, the mainstream media, and most of all the BT campaign have been absolutely shiting themselves recently. This. H_B's entire demeanour on this sub-forum has changed completely in the last 2 - 3 weeks. Gone is the perma smug, supercilious H_B, replaced by a chap who's "always thought it would be tight" and who thinks "we should all get on, whatever the result". Now, knowing that H_B can't completely change, I'll address his pedantry now and say that the content of the above inverted commas is me paraphrasing, rather than a direct quote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
~~~ Posted September 18, 2014 Share Posted September 18, 2014 This. H_B's entire demeanour on this sub-forum has changed completely in the last 2 - 3 weeks. Gone is the perma smug, supercilious H_B, replaced by a chap who's "always thought it would be tight" and who thinks "we should all get on, whatever the result". Now, knowing that H_B can't completely change, I'll address his pedantry now and say that the content of the above inverted commas is me paraphrasing, rather than a direct quote. Surprised he hasn't changed his avatar now that Murray has declared he is supporting yes 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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