MarkoRaj Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 It's one poll. Taken not long after the referendum. And at a time where Scottish Labour are in, even by their low standards, a shambolic state. Before the election there will be a change of focus away from secession as an issue and more towards the business of electing a new government for the country. Well it will certainly be interesting to see if they can pull it back. I don't really see what they have to offer though. The fag paper difference between them and the tories means the whole 'a vote for SNP is a vote for them' won't really wash imo. It's one poll but it really does reflect the mood of the country at the moment. Interestingly, you mention on another thread that without the promise of a referendum in the Holyrood manifesto the SNP might lose a few fundamentalists. That is not the case at Westminster so by the time the GE comes around, these people will still be very much motivated to go out and vote for the SNP. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H_B Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Well it will certainly be interesting to see if they can pull it back. I don't really see what they have to offer though. I think anything that moves things to a UK level away from Scottish Labour will be a bonus for them. It will become a lot more about what you wish to happen at Westminster, and what government we wish to elect. The last few years has been very local and very Scottish-based. The GE will be a lot wider a campaign. Plus there are the massive majorities in place, that tend to take more than one election to wipe out. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScotlandGer Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I tend to agree that getting into 12+ would be an realachievement, but also there is an idea that the referendum has severely weakened Labour's grip over the claim to represent Scotland's interests at Westminster. Labour MPs, in particular, interpret their strength in Westminster in Scotland wrongly, when in reality it relies to a far greater extent than is generally acknowledged on an anti-Tory and latent Scottish (soft-nationalist) sentiment. If the ability to best represent Scottish interests has transferred over to the SNP for Westminster in this respect, as it already clearly has for Holyrood, then many Labour MPs will be panicking come election night. It's too simplistic to say this is just because Labour campaigned with the Tories in Better Together, but it didn't serve them well to be seen to be on the hard-negative side of a campaign which was about Scotland's status / standing / prospects etc. Even No voters will have found some of the No **** unedifying. Combined with Lamont's comments (which will be come back to haunt Labour in 2015) and which reinforces this image of a supine Scottish Labour Party, this won't translate into 'standing up for Scotland' in a Westminster context whereas the SNP may have broken through in this respect for Westminster. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Although the poll is very pleasing, the seat numbers are still unlikely. The SNP getting say, 15-25 seats, would still be terrific and may actually be well within reach now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Why is everyone so convinced that labour will pull away again? Has this kind of poll ever happened before prior to a general election? Yes. There were couple of polls pre last general election that had SNP in front of Labour.... bout 6 months before. But never by this much 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Yes. There were couple of polls pre last general election that had SNP in front of Labour.... bout 6 months before. But never by this much I'd imagine labour weren't in as much of a riot as they are now, both nationally and in Scotland? Getting rid of some of the dross might help. It will be interesting to see how Murphy will be perceived in Scotland in a more high profile role. I could never understand how people could fall for his shouting lies at grannies act but he seemed to get away with it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 I think anything that moves things to a UK level away from Scottish Labour will be a bonus for them. It will become a lot more about what you wish to happen at Westminster, and what government we wish to elect. The last few years has been very local and very Scottish-based. The GE will be a lot wider a campaign. Plus there are the massive majorities in place, that tend to take more than one election to wipe out. While there are good reasons to suspect these factors will come into play, it is both a) only six months until the election and b) an absolutely massive, commanding gap that Labour needs to overhaul. Not to mention c) the highly unlikely prospect of Ed Milliband actually doing a storming turn for Labour either side of the border. To be clear, 52% is almost certainly a major outlier, but it looks like what we're beginning to see is the Holyrood voting pattern being transferred into Westminster, which would be utterly disastrous for them in the very fear future. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 Oh and let's not forget the background here - this is a straight contest between a party in opposition on both sides of the border, during the worst economic downturn since the 1870s, against a party of limited government deep into its second term of office. Despite this, the polls continue to swing massively in favour of that governing party. A truly unprecedented degree of success, if the SNP even get within touching distance of Labour in May. Right now I can see them winning the popular vote handsomely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted October 30, 2014 Author Share Posted October 30, 2014 David Cameron will be absolutely delighted with the way things are going in Scotland right now. He'll be the SNP's biggest fan in May. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 David Cameron will be absolutely delighted with the way things are going in Scotland right now. He'll be the SNP's biggest fan in May. Apart from moronic Labour fanatics, who actually gives a f**k? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It would be glorious if the SNP did indeed actually end up returning a very large number of seats though. Imagine Big Eck steaming into the Commons with about 30-40 of them. PMQs would be utter #scenes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AberdeenBud Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It's one poll. Taken not long after the referendum. And at a time where Scottish Labour are in, even by their low standards, a shambolic state. Before the election there will be a change of focus away from secession as an issue and more towards the business of electing a new government for the country. Still confident of your less than 10 prediction? Can't see any more than 16, but could see them hitting 10-12 at least, given the proximity of the GE. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I'd love to see Scotland returning 40+ non-Labour MP's, the new boudary changes could actually have Scotland holding some semblance of power (not in a coalition) at Westminster. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Still confident of your less than 10 prediction? Can't see any more than 16, but could see them hitting 10-12 at least, given the proximity of the GE. Id reckon 10-12 if the SNP are still polling in the mid 40s. If they aren't then they will get the usual handful. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 Apart from moronic Labour fanatics, who actually gives a f**k? Well, Conservative supporters? They will be rubbing their hands with glee. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LinkinFighter Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I'd prefer the Tories in at Westminster. f**k labour. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I'd prefer the Tories in at Westminster. f**k labour. It will be hilarious is the SNP got rid of as many Labour clowns as they could up here, denying them a GE victory and the Tories got into power again propped up by the SNP on a confidence and supply basis. The meltdown on here would probably be even bigger than the past months. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 It will be hilarious is the SNP got rid of as many Labour clowns as they could up here, denying them a GE victory and the Tories got into power again propped up by the SNP on a confidence and supply basis. The meltdown on here would probably be even bigger than the past months. Why would there be a meltdown? I think that's the ideal scenario. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted October 31, 2014 Author Share Posted October 31, 2014 I'd prefer the Tories in at Westminster. f**k labour. Me too. I think I will tactically vote SNP to try to get rid of Dougie Alexander in my constituency. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reynard Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 Me too. I think I will tactically vote SNP to try to get rid of Dougie Alexander in my constituency. I'm looking forward to the SNP wiping out Labour up here and helping return a proper Tory government to Westminster. After nearly quarter of a century, its about time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.