General Election 2015

[Gordon EF]

There is no question Labour benefit massively from the status quo, which is why they'll likely resist any change to how Westminster or elections are run. Whether it be FPTP, geographical boundaries or tactical voting down south. It's explained pretty clearly in this article.

I think seat distribution is unlikely. Yes, SNP will win a record number of seats and Tories will gain one or two. But come election time. Labour will get far more exposure time and that will sway some traditional [disgruntled] Labour voters who were thinking about voting SNP back to Labour.

Yeah. Nobody but the most blinkered SNP supporter thinks they'll get 35 seats. It's just encouraging that Labour will have to claw back a huge polling deficit to stop a pretty significant SNP gain. There's no doubt they will claw some of it back but I doubt they'll be able to go the whole way, like they did in 2010.

[Kyle]

Labour's opposition to "English votes for English laws" is surely going to lose them a few percentage points worth of vote come the election.

I wonder if that's their way to try and win some votes back in Scotland? Labour obviously have their strong holds which they'll hope to hang on to in England, but this kind of statement will likely put them out of some fairly close races elsewhere IMO.

[Reynard]

I wonder if that's their way to try and win some votes back in Scotland? Labour obviously have their strong holds which they'll hope to hang on to in England, but this kind of statement will likely put them out of some fairly close races elsewhere IMO.

Its got nothing to do with their vote in Scotland other than to be able to use 30 or 40 MPs to ram through legislation they want in England. Something they might struggle to do in a tight parliament.

[Kyle]

Its got nothing to do with their vote in Scotland other than to be able to use 30 or 40 MPs to ram through legislation they want in England. Something they might struggle to do in a tight parliament.

That makes much more sense.

[Reynard]

That makes much more sense.

Cameron has them in bother here. He knows they want to ignore the WLQ politically as it suits them to. Hague, yesterday, mentioned forcing Labour to vote against EVEL in the next month or so which they will then use to club Labour around the head with prior to the election. I doubt it will unduly bother the Tories either way whether they got this through or not, they are just trolling Labour and set a trap for them which will be sprung no matter what they do. In due course EVEL will need to be addressed but whether it is done in tandem with whatever devolution pish will be ponied up for Scotland isnt relevant to this. The powers will come to scotland regardless.

[George Parr]

I'll laugh like a drain if Miliband fails to emerge from the GE as Prime Minister. Seemed an impossible one to lose.

A few Labour/Lib Dem strongholds falling would also be fairly amusing. Here's hoping.

[Reynard]

I'll laugh like a drain if Miliband fails to emerge from the GE as Prime Minister. Seemed an impossible one to lose.

A few Labour/Lib Dem strongholds falling would also be fairly amusing. Here's hoping.

So would I.

But I just don't see it.

I'm looking forward to Pete Wishart losing his seat to the Tories all the same.

[Mr Bairn]

The only answer to the WLQ is to have every section of the UK represented by some form of second tier government that lies somewhere in between a local council and the UK government. Regional parliaments would be my preferred option, although an English parliament could work as well.

[Mr Bairn]

Also the NCC seethe if Perthshire North fell to the Tories would be monumental.

[Elixir]

The SNP are 1/10 to hold Perth and North Perthshire.

The Tories are 8/1 to take it.

In short: not a chance.

[Mr Bairn]

Might need to lump the SNP then. What bank account can you find paying 10% interest?

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

The SNP are 1/10 to hold Perth and North Perthshire.

The Tories are 8/1 to take it.

In short: not a chance.

Someone must've said it would happen on Twitter. Bless.

[H_B]

Someone must've said it would happen on Twitter. Bless.

I think we know from referendum night and the clown collective communal hard-ons over good news for Yes on Twitter how laughably inaccurate it is as a source of.. well, anything.

[Desert Nomad]

So would I.

But I just don't see it.

I'm looking forward to Pete Wishart losing his seat to the Tories all the same.

The Tories haven't even named a candidate yet. They've no fucking chance in Perthshire.

[mizfit]

I remember the conservative candidate heckling me on the Glasgow road to vote for him last time.

Hopefully the next candidate is as easy to wind up as that one was.

[WaffenThinMint]

I'll laugh like a drain if Miliband fails to emerge from the GE as Prime Minister. Seemed an impossible one to lose.

A few Labour/Lib Dem strongholds falling would also be fairly amusing. Here's hoping.

I would be amazed if Millibland does win. Most of the predictions are still being made using questionable models often based on the English seats being two big parties & one minor party at best. They fail to take into account that the big two simply no longer have the footsoldiers in GEs anymore, & in that respect the gap's closed with the little guys.

The BNP showed the cheapness of the internet to get your message across means no longer do parties have to spend a fortune on posters to win over voters. Yet the lessons were taken on board only by those parties on tight budgets - Labour and the Tories remained stuck in the mindset that it's big financial backers that win elections in the modern age.

Advertising money cannot fully compensate for a lack of feet on the stamp: & it's a matter even worse with the UKIPstarts being generously funded (with the most supreme of ironies) via all those MEP's fat salaries. For the first time since the pre-war days of the Labour Party, there is a third party not merely fighting all the seats, but being able to do so with more than merely a mass of "paper" candidates (as the National Front, Natural Law Party and Sir Jammy Fishpaste's Referendum Party once did) - UKIP have the footsloggers to do it.

If Labour & the Tories are hoping for the 57 varieties of Student Bar lefty groups shouting "fascist filth" to counter UKIP for them, they're going to be sorely disappointed outside of the metropolises which are the areas most vulnerable to UKIP anyway.

If Labour and the Tories think UKIP are going to be little more than a nuisance at the GE, they've got a rude awakening coming, even ruder considering they're paying no attention to the Greens who may well sneak one of the Oxford or Norwich sets of seats with the LibDem vote in complete collapse.

That's not even mentioning Scotland, where the Yes vote in unthinkable areas like Glasgow, Coatbridge and Paisley does seem to confirm the days of the Scottish working class doing whatever Labour told it to do (particularly as Tony Benn noted in areas of a high Irish descendent Roman Catholic tradition) are finally over.

The independence referendum showed damningly the frailty of the majors. After the election, the SNP & Greens enjoyed a massive surge in membership, whereas the "triumphant" Tories & Labour saw their memberships decline after the traditional conference renewal time. Let's not even look at the Lib Dems, a party even more desperate for foot soldiers at all times to give themselves a credence of credibility as a "national" party - an empty conference which spookily echoed the SDP's of 1989 before their collapse. The SNP & Greens lost a battle but fighting it may very well have won them a greater one later.

For the first time in a long time, there is the real feeling that irreversible change is afoot, that Abraham Lincoln's age old warning in politics is about to be proven once more after two decades of slow malaise and despondency. After all, we've already saw an SNP majority in Holyrood and the political extermination of the mouthpiece of the Orange Order - the Ulster Unionist Party - both of which everyone "knew" would never happen...

[Reynard]

I would be amazed if Millibland does win. Most of the predictions are still being made using questionable models often based on the English seats being two big parties & one minor party at best. They fail to take into account that the big two simply no longer have the footsoldiers in GEs anymore, & in that respect the gap's closed with the little guys.

The BNP showed the cheapness of the internet to get your message across means no longer do parties have to spend a fortune on posters to win over voters. Yet the lessons were taken on board only by those parties on tight budgets - Labour and the Tories remained stuck in the mindset that it's big financial backers that win elections in the modern age.

Advertising money cannot fully compensate for a lack of feet on the stamp: & it's a matter even worse with the UKIPstarts being generously funded (with the most supreme of ironies) via all those MEP's fat salaries. For the first time since the pre-war days of the Labour Party, there is a third party not merely fighting all the seats, but being able to do so with more than merely a mass of "paper" candidates (as the National Front, Natural Law Party and Sir Jammy Fishpaste's Referendum Party once did) - UKIP have the footsloggers to do it.

If Labour & the Tories are hoping for the 57 varieties of Student Bar lefty groups shouting "fascist filth" to counter UKIP for them, they're going to be sorely disappointed outside of the metropolises which are the areas most vulnerable to UKIP anyway.

If Labour and the Tories think UKIP are going to be little more than a nuisance at the GE, they've got a rude awakening coming, even ruder considering they're paying no attention to the Greens who may well sneak one of the Oxford or Norwich sets of seats with the LibDem vote in complete collapse.

That's not even mentioning Scotland, where the Yes vote in unthinkable areas like Glasgow, Coatbridge and Paisley does seem to confirm the days of the Scottish working class doing whatever Labour told it to do (particularly as Tony Benn noted in areas of a high Irish descendent Roman Catholic tradition) are finally over.

The independence referendum showed damningly the frailty of the majors. After the election, the SNP & Greens enjoyed a massive surge in membership, whereas the "triumphant" Tories & Labour saw their memberships decline after the traditional conference renewal time. Let's not even look at the Lib Dems, a party even more desperate for foot soldiers at all times to give themselves a credence of credibility as a "national" party - an empty conference which spookily echoed the SDP's of 1989 before their collapse. The SNP & Greens lost a battle but fighting it may very well have won them a greater one later.

For the first time in a long time, there is the real feeling that irreversible change is afoot, that Abraham Lincoln's age old warning in politics is about to be proven once more after two decades of slow malaise and despondency. After all, we've already saw an SNP majority in Holyrood and the political extermination of the mouthpiece of the Orange Order - the Ulster Unionist Party - both of which everyone "knew" would never happen...

So basically. The SNP might scrape a dozen or so seats up here, Labour will win handsomely in Scotland as usual but that is in spite of the massive ground campaign being launched by the SNP and their balloon inflator army. You think the greens might win a couple of seats in England (they'll lose the one they've got) and Ukip will affect the outcome (it will).

Thankfully we Scots have parked independence once and for all. There wont be another referendum and Nicola isn't in the same league as Salmond in terms of political ability so we will see how she deals with the infiltration of her party by the loony left. It will certainly piss off the kilted tory types that made up the bulk of the party previously.

The tories need to be at least into the late 30s in terms of percentages and they also need to be at least 6% ahead of Labour before they can even dream about a majority. Theyve got no chance of a majority.

[George Parr]

So basically. The SNP might scrape a dozen or so seats up here, Labour will win handsomely in Scotland as usual but that is in spite of the massive ground campaign being launched by the SNP and their balloon inflator army. You think the greens might win a couple of seats in England (they'll lose the one they've got) and Ukip will affect the outcome (it will).

Thankfully we Scots have parked independence once and for all. There wont be another referendum and Nicola isn't in the same league as Salmond in terms of political ability so we will see how she deals with the infiltration of her party by the loony left. It will certainly piss off the kilted tory types that made up the bulk of the party previously.

The tories need to be at least into the late 30s in terms of percentages and they also need to be at least 6% ahead of Labour before they can even dream about a majority. Theyve got no chance of a majority.

Agree with the top summary but your middle paragraph sounds vaguely George Robertsonish. No one can possibly know what will happen with the independence issue in future.

[Reynard]

And Labour and the Tories memberships have also gone up in Scotland. Obnviously by a few thousand or so which looks ridiculous in comparison to the SNP increase but they havent declined as Waffen alleges.

[Reynard]

Agree with the top summary but your middle paragraph sounds vaguely George Robertsonish. No one can possibly know what will happen with the independence issue in future.

Salmond himself said " a generation". WM will take that literally.