General Election 2015

[pandarilla]

Yes. All legit. You're on the list and you can come in

No trainers though, we've got some standards.

[Thumper]

The Western Isles is really the first Scottish seat expected to declare?

There are a couple of interesting seats at 2am (Kirkcaldy and Rutherglen). Those should serve as adequate bellwethers. If Greatrex is emptied and Brown's old seat goes SNP then the country's strategic whisky reserves can get opened there and then.

[Mr Bairn]

Still raging about this 9:30 exam

[I'm Brian]

Wee Dougie, sMurph and Magrit all expected around 3 am. What a glorious 15 minutes that could be.

[Stephen Malkmus]

From behind the FT paywall:

One of the 40 Labour politicians who held Scottish seats in the last UK parliament reaches for a natural-disaster metaphor to describe what he expects to be the end of his career on May 7.

“It is like a tsunami — there’s nothing you can do about it. It doesn’t matter if you’re the best swimmer in the world,” he says.

For decades, Labour regularly harvested the majority of Scotland’s 59 seats in the House of Commons. That was before they had to reckon with the Scottish nationalists’ dynamic resurgence.

Now, many of the 40 are bracing themselves for the likelihood that they may never take their seats on the green benches again. In Westminster, some have nicknamed them “the living dead”.

“The polls are right. I hear it on the doorstep; my people hear it. We have thousands of conversations and the polls are bang on,” says one of the 40. “I’ll be looking for another career after May.”

An Electoral Calculus prediction based on recent opinion polls suggested Labour would win only 11 constituencies north of the border next month.

This reflects the momentum behind the Scottish National party since its defeat in last year’s independence referendum.

When William Bain tells constituents in Glasgow North East that the general election will be a close race, some are noticeably taken aback — Mr Bain carried the seat for Labour with a colossal 68 per cent of the vote in 2010.

But with the SNP enjoying one of the most extraordinary surges in British political history, even the most solid Labour seat cannot be taken for granted.

“We are in a battle for the soul of Labour voters and the result is going to be quite decisive for politics in the UK,” says Mr Bain, pausing between doorstep encounters during an afternoon canvassing in the working-class housing estate of Milton. “The whole of central Scotland is one big marginal right now.”

I’m expecting to leave and never come back. It doesn’t matter how good you are or how weak your [sNP] opponent is — it’s over

- Former Labour MP

Some of Labour’s biggest figures could be facing defeat — even Douglas Alexander, the shadow foreign secretary.

Mr Alexander, who is also in charge of Labour’s election strategy, has compared SNP support to a bridal magazine that women buy for up to a year after their wedding day to bring back happy memories. But colleagues believe that the pro-nationalist mood will not subside so quickly.

Instead, they appear forlorn in the face of a shift that has left the SNP poised to seize constituencies where bookmakers were offering 100/1 odds against them as recently as last August.

One Scottish Labour MP — or former, as of last week — sums up the mood, citing the US defence conditions scale, where Defcon 5 means normal peacetime and Defcon 1 means maximum force readiness.

“I’m now set to Defcon f***ed,” he says. “I’m expecting to leave and never come back. It doesn’t matter how good you are or how weak your [sNP] opponent is — it’s over.”

A member of Labour’s shadow cabinet calls the SNP rise a force capable of demolishing electoral margins that once looked impregnable: “People with majorities of 10k, 11k, 12k, 13k, 15k . . . they thought they were in parliament for life.”

It is in the one-time strongholds of Glasgow, however, that the changing mood has come as the biggest shock to Labour. The city was one of only two areas where the majority voted for independence.Ian Murray, who was MP for Edinburgh South, says the polls are pointing to a “tight fight”, but insists that is not a bad thing: “It keeps you on our toes.”

Compared with most of his peers, Mr Bain is relatively secure. A detailed poll of the constituency in February reported a 24 per cent swing to the SNP since 2010. This leaves Mr Bain with a seven-point lead.

John Benson, a resident of the Milton estate, said he was surprised that Labour was losing its grip on an area it has held in Westminster elections since the 1930s.

“This was always a Labour stronghold,” he says from his doorstep, which looks out beyond council-built tower blocks to the rugged Campsie Fells.

Mr Benson still plans to vote for Mr Bain, despite backing independence. But among Milton neighbours, there are plenty who have turned their backs on his party.

“I was brought up with Labour . . . but I’ll probably be voting SNP,” says Kathleen Quinn. “Things are changing.”

A recent ITV News/ComRes poll of the 40 Scottish constituencies previously held by Labour suggested the party could lose 29 to the SNP. But it also offered some comfort — reporting a smaller lead for the nationalists than other surveys have found.

Mr Bain says there are plenty of examples of late shifts in opinion in election campaigns and that Labour can still expect to benefit as the only party that could provide a change of government.

“Things can break big and late,” he says. “It’s all to play for.”

[I'm Brian]

I'm set to Defcon Fucked :lol:

[Roversforlife]

I'm set to Defcon Fucked :lol:

Sounds like something a Glasgow uni #lad would say before heading out

[John Lambies Doos]

If Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath go Yellow at about 1am, an utterly glorious night awaits

[invergowrie arab]

all the good constituencies at 3 am. they better have TVs at the count in Perth.

[Granny Danger]

I'm flying out to Lanzarote on 7 May - postal vote already sorted out. I'll be going to bed about 11 p.m. with the alarm set for 2.30 a.m.; then four hours or so of watching the results coming in.

It's an all inclusive hotel so the copious amounts of wine, beer, cava and vodka that I'll be (hopefully) celebrating with for the following 13 days is already covered.

[BerwickMad]

Some of the councils did this during the 2011 election. Fife rings a bell. They were roundly criticised for it.

Look on the bright side though Your one could be the one that makes all the difference.

The odds are shortening all the time on a Tory victory here, so hopefully it's not us tipping them over the line!

The other constituencies in the county will be pretty comfortable. Wansbeck and Blyth for Labour and Hexham for the Tories.

[BerwickMad]

[Kyle]

all the good constituencies at 3 am. they better have TVs at the count in Perth.

Seeing as Perth will probably be a seat where they'll be weighing the votes rather than counting them, surely you'd be as well staying at home!? (Please excuse my ignorance as this is all new to me!)

[git-intae-thum]

I'm flying out to Lanzarote on 7 May - postal vote already sorted out. I'll be going to bed about 11 p.m. with the alarm set for 2.30 a.m.; then four hours or so of watching the results coming in.

It's an all inclusive hotel so the copious amounts of wine, beer, cava and vodka that I'll be (hopefully) celebrating with for the following 13 days is already covered.

Postal vote sorted eh. Hope you have a happy holiday, safe in the knowledge it will be getting binned by some wee mandarin and getting resubmitted as a vote for whatever unionist politico is on their list to stop the SNP in your constituency. ????

Enjoy that Tequila on election night.????

[Reluctant Hero]

Getting closer Your friendly PA guide to estimated declaration Times

http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php

These times are more or less all an hour or so longer than the declaration times in 2010.

This may be to do with the councils expecting the results to be a lot closer this time and maybe a larger turnout given the renewed interest in politics over the last year or so.

[pandarilla]

Seeing as Perth will probably be a seat where they'll be weighing the votes rather than counting them, surely you'd be as well staying at home!? (Please excuse my ignorance as this is all new to me!)

Stay at home rather than be a part of it? No comparison I reckon.

[Kyle]

I get that, but imagine not knowing how the rest of the seats were going all at the same time?

[SodjesSixteenIncher]

I notice Tories to win the most seats is now 2/5. Got them at well over evens lasts summer but unfortunately combined it with other utterly shite predictions like Dunfermline and Sevco to win their respective divisions.

Was always going to happen, wish I'd piled in on a single.

[pandarilla]

I get that, but imagine not knowing how the rest of the seats were going all at the same time?

Everyone at the count will want to be kept up to date. Plus you'll get the atmosphere when big things happen.

[invergowrie arab]

Seeing as Perth will probably be a seat where they'll be weighing the votes rather than counting them, surely you'd be as well staying at home!? (Please excuse my ignorance as this is all new to me!)

Perth & NP should be fine but I'm not going to miss a chance to be rubbing shoulders with Murphy's Mob wen South Perth & Ochil goes yellow.