ecto Posted December 11, 2014 Share Posted December 11, 2014 All valid apart from missing one vital fact. The independence support has never been larger. It may have never been larger, but with no #indyref on the horizon, does it matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 All valid apart from missing one vital fact. The independence support has never been larger. Well you'd expect so. Given the last 2 years have seen millions and millions of pounds spent on pro independence billboards/flyers/tv adverts.... Etc Etc. If that never caused support for it to peak there would be something far wrong. 44.7 is a decent enough peak to reach, I expect now it will drift back down to around the 40 percent mark, where it's been for the last 40 years or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 So, there was no need for a referendum yet we had one and now there is still no need for a referendum so we will never have another? Stunning logic. No there was a need for the referendum when we had it. Voting in an SNP majority in 2010 meant a referendum was absolutely necessary. It wasn't necessary before then, because there was never nearly enough support for it. Just like there won't be in the future, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Well you'd expect so. Given the last 2 years have seen millions and millions of pounds spent on pro independence billboards/flyers/tv adverts.... Etc Etc. If that never caused support for it to peak there would be something far wrong. 44.7 is a decent enough peak to reach, I expect now it will drift back down to around the 40 percent mark, where it's been for the last 40 years or so. I'm sure the support for independence was around the 22% mark at the beginning of the process actually. I scoffed at the idea when the referendum was first discussed and ended up a yes supporter, plenty of others went on a similar journey (and I'm sure plenty went the other way too). I think you're right when you say there wont be a mandate again for quite some time, but I think there's more people inclined to vote yes now than there was on the day of the referendum. What can't be denied is the shift in the political landcape over the last little while - I know loads of no voters who will now vote SNP at the next general election for example. 'Vote SNP get the Tories' doesn't appear to as effective a tactic as it used to be for Labour and that can only be a positive. Hopefully it leads to Labour changing their ideology to separate themselves a bit more from the Tories as I really can't see much of a difference between the two parties at the moment. No wonder so many people in England are changing from either or to UKIP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 40% eh? For two years you were telling us the long term support for independence was around 30% now you claim it's 40%. Make up yer mind. I'm actually pretty sure I've never said that once. Feel free to quote me and prove me wrong though. While we are on the subject of yourself... Let's never forget your pre vote proclamation. ' The pollsters are wrong, they're ignoring social media, it's going to be 65-35 YES, you heard it here first ' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'm sure the support for independence was around the 22% mark at the beginning of the process actually. I scoffed at the idea when the referendum was first discussed and ended up a yes supporter, plenty of others went on a similar journey (and I'm sure plenty went the other way too). I think you're right when you say there wont be a mandate again for quite some time, but I think there's more people inclined to vote yes now than there was on the day of the referendum. What can't be denied is the shift in the political landcape over the last little while - I know loads of no voters who will now vote SNP at the next general election for example. 'Vote SNP get the Tories' doesn't appear to as effective a tactic as it used to be for Labour and that can only be a positive. Hopefully it leads to Labour changing their ideology to separate themselves a bit more from the Tories as I really can't see much of a difference between the two parties at the moment. No wonder so many people in England are changing from either or to UKIP. Where you get the 22% figure from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Where you get the 22% figure from? Apologies, It was actually 25% a year before the referendum and 30% in 2012. http://www.google.co.uk/url?url=http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-support-at-25-per-cent-poll-1-3138404&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=keSKVPvdHIS7ONbYgZgJ&ved=0CBQQFjAA&sig2=iR-b_fkhGm5X5Pr3BMJzGA&usg=AFQjCNETOgA-HEoit3LpuvYETmZkAHvgUA http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/poll-shows-support-for-scottish-independence-1385357 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Apologies, It was actually 25% a year before the referendum and 30% in 2012. http://www.google.co.uk/url?url=http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/scottish-independence-support-at-25-per-cent-poll-1-3138404&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=keSKVPvdHIS7ONbYgZgJ&ved=0CBQQFjAA&sig2=iR-b_fkhGm5X5Pr3BMJzGA&usg=AFQjCNETOgA-HEoit3LpuvYETmZkAHvgUA http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/poll-shows-support-for-scottish-independence-1385357 Couple of outlying polls that exclude Don't Knows. The average poll pre May 2012 (when the campaigns were launched) had independence around 40% when DK's were excluded IIRC, maybe a little less. Certainly not lower than 35%. There's no doubt that YES picked up a lot of supporters during the campaign, as you'd expect they would given the complacent mess that was the better together campaign. The issue is out the spotlight now though, and I think we will see a regression to the historic mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 The average poll pre May 2012 (when the campaigns were launched) had independence around 40% when DK's were excluded IIRC, maybe a little less. You'll be able to link to them, then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 You'll be able to link to them, then. There's a link to all the polls since 2011: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014 As you can see, in the 2011 and 2012 polls, not one has YES on under 35 when DK's are excluded. They range as far as I can see from 36% to 50.5%, one poll in 2011 had YES infront! So, like I said, an historical support of around 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 There's a link to all the polls since 2011: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Scottish_independence_referendum,_2014 As you can see, in the 2011 and 2012 polls, not one has YES on under 35 when DK's are excluded. They range as far as I can see from 36% to 50.5%, one poll in 2011 had YES infront! So, like I said, an historical support of around 40%. Yes, so you must have the figures with don't knows excluded, right? I can't see them in your link, i'm damned if i'm doing the arithmetic and I wouldn't trust yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Yes, so you must have the figures with don't knows excluded, right? I can't see them in your link, i'm damned if i'm doing the arithmetic and I wouldn't trust yours. Eh, what you do is you half the don't knows and then add half to each column... If you don't trust me it should take you all of ten seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Oh really? So you just assume that the "don't knows" are a 50/50 split? Yes that's what pollsters do. If you want you can split them in accordance with the poll results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Or just exclude them altogether and assume that the YES and NOs make up 100%. Yes, that's what pollsters do. Lex is "misled". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 Eh, what you do is you half the don't knows and then add half to each column... If you don't trust me it should take you all of ten seconds. No that's not correct. What you do is you split them in the same proportion as those who have already made their minds up. For example if a poll came out tomorrow showing the SNP on 40%, Labour on 24%, Tories 16% and the remaining 20% don't know, then we'd apportion that 20% in the ratio 10:6:4 respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted December 12, 2014 Share Posted December 12, 2014 I'm sensing a change in you, Mr Bairn. You'll be a committed yesser by the end of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Seen on Twitter, a new YouGov poll has % voting for Westminister as SNP 47, Labour 27, Tories 16, Libs3 Also, if a referendum was called - Yes 48% No 45% Keep building that tally up bit by bit and we'll get there next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Seen on Twitter, a new YouGov poll has % voting for Westminister as SNP 47, Labour 27, Tories 16, Libs3 Also, if a referendum was called - Yes 48% No 45% Keep building that tally up bit by bit and we'll get there next time. I have no doubt the next referendum will be a win. But I've explained why in two lengthy posts so I won't go into it again. I expect the whole "voting differently at Westminster and Holyrood" thing to die out somewhat. I'd say there are two distinct groups of people who vote Labour in UK elections and SNP at Holyrood. First is the more well of types that are more likely to be unionist but simply believe that the SNP are more competent to run Holyrood. The other group are largely independence supporters that vote Labour in UK elections because they prefer them to the Tories. That second group I expect to vote SNP en masse in May. There is a third smaller group which I will align myself with who may disagree with some SNP policies and aren't convinced about independence but may well vote for them purely because they're clearly the most trustworthy of the main parties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SodjesSixteenIncher Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 Seen on Twitter, a new YouGov poll has % voting for Westminister as SNP 47, Labour 27, Tories 16, Libs3 Also, if a referendum was called - Yes 48% No 45% Keep building that tally up bit by bit and we'll get there next time. Lex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted December 13, 2014 Share Posted December 13, 2014 I'm sensing a change in you, Mr Bairn. You'll be a committed yesser by the end of the year.who cares, there isn't going to be a referendum for 20 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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