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The 2016 US Presidential Election


Adamski

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Perhaps the reason it hasn't been polled is that the numbers are likely to be ridiculously low. Given that the demographic of most of the candidates over the years seem to be pretty similar, often refusing to vote for a male, white etc would simply mean not voting at all. Obviously recently there have been exceptions. Hopefully there will become more of them. I think a person's principles are far more important than their DNA

Just a thought, maybe some of these issues could be clarified in a poll of reasons why people do not vote.

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Source other than (more) cartoons and your opinion? It'd be great to see some actual stats ("stats!" :lol:) as, as noted in the first post of mine you quoted:

What has however been polled by the politics and policy oriented Pew Research Centre is how more or less likely certain groups are to vote for a woman.

5-16-2014-12-23-51-PM.png

With 24% of women taking the sexist route of being more likely to vote for a woman than a man, it seems a fair speculation that a fair percentage of those 24% wouldn't vote for a man outright (just as a fair percentage of the sexist 14% of men less likely to vote for a woman than a man would also not vote for a woman outright).

Unless of course you have a considered argument citing credible sources to speculate otherwise.

I don't think they prove your case as much as you'd like to believe. Firstly, to win an election where you have a two party system. You need to win over the median voter. Hilary can already bank on hard left liners and mainstream liberals to vote for her. At the same time she has no chance capturing any hard right or mainstream conservative types. Overall, I have to conclude that her being a women will have no bearing on her winning or losing the election. Should she win the nomination.

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Perhaps the reason it hasn't been polled is that the numbers are likely to be ridiculously low. Given that the demographic of most of the candidates over the years seem to be pretty similar, often refusing to vote for a male, white etc would simply mean not voting at all.

Perhaps, again we only have speculation. On the other hand, with the growing expectation over the last decade of Hillary running, the question has more and as much relevance as the opposite. The poll may be being skewed in both directions because of her impeding candidacy.

I think a person's principles are far more important than their DNA

Absolutely. Unfortunately many seemingly disagree.

I don't think they prove your case as much as you'd like to believe. Firstly, to win an election where you have a two party system. You need to win over the median voter. Hilary can already bank on hard left liners and mainstream liberals to vote for her. At the same time she has no chance capturing any hard right or mainstream conservative types. Overall, I have to conclude that her being a women will have no bearing on her winning or losing the election. Should she win the nomination.

Fair points, but the question was about 'a woman' not 'Hillary', and was polled a year ago. Like I mentioned above, we don't know the extent to which The Hillary Factor actually plays a role in those polling stats, and that counts for men less likely to vote for a woman ('Hillary') as it does women less likely to vote for a man ('not Hillary').

A better gauge would perhaps be to ask the question not of a presidential candidate, but of state-level political positions or governors.

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  • 2 months later...

So a couple of months down the line and most of the big names on either side have declared that they are running.

Hillary is the clear favourite as the candidate for the Democrats. The bookies not quite sold on Jeb Bush for now - Rubio and Walker also on fairly short odds.

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More generally, this has been an absolute, stunning disaster of a week for the American right. Major scrutiny over the Confederate flag (less so gun control, which is part of the point of the seethe over flegs at the moment), but more importantly, the Supreme Court ruling in favour of Obamacare and nationwide same-sex marriage in the space of two days.

Can't see them dealing with this without resorting to at least one massacre tbh.

turmoil.gif

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  • 2 weeks later...

Donald Trump for President is a campaign we should all get behind, what an absolute gold mine of fun if he gets anywhere..

Looks like he fucked the Mexican vote and upset the golf world in one speech.
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  • 2 weeks later...

Time for that great American tradition of rabble rousing religious bigots for votes.

http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/jul/19/republicans-iowa-family-leadership-summit-donald-trump

The GOP must be absolutely fucked if Trump is leading the polls. Quality trolling though, must take balls for a draft dodger to have a pop at a veteran POW.

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Is he leading the polls?! The Republicans are fucked if that's the case. He'll surely be immensely unpopular for anyone who has more than one brain cell to muster.

He was leading the latest one ;

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/17/politics/donald-trump-poll-2016-elections/index.html

He'll no doubt fall away, but he'll do some damage to the GOP first I imagine.

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