WullieBroonIsGod Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Unsure whether to put this thread here or in the gambling section. Just thought I'd start a thread for folks having a flutter. I'm looking at UKIP seats and tempted to back <3.5 seats. odds are sitting at 8/11 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dee4Life1893 Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Unsure whether to put this thread here or in the gambling section. Just thought I'd start a thread for folks having a flutter. I'm looking at UKIP seats and tempted to back <3.5 seats. odds are sitting at 8/11 right now Yet a member of the UKIP party was told they'd be lucky to win 1 seat on national BBC radio this morning. I'm in no way a UKIP supporter but I think they'll probably get about 10, so great bet. Just a point on how the meant to be unbiased BBC portrays the party. They had their manifesto release on the same loop as peacocks damaging cars yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Yet a member of the UKIP party was told they'd be lucky to win 1 seat on national BBC radio this morning. I'm in no way a UKIP supporter but I think they'll probably get about 10, so great bet. Just a point on how the meant to be unbiased BBC portrays the party. They had their manifesto release on the same loop as peacocks damaging cars yesterday. What odds do you want on ukip getting 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Well which ten seats, give or take, would you expect them to win then, and why? There is little indication that UKIP's general support will consolidate into a seat in anything more than a couple of areas: half a dozen if they're very lucky on the night. More interestingly then is the question of individual seat bets in Scotland ahead of the SNP landslide - is it possible to accumulate them like betting against the diddies on an international weekend? Apparently busted flush Alexander is 1/5 to lose Inverness; I'd like to combine that with many similar outcomes in the Central Belt to gain at least an evens' return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WullieBroonIsGod Posted April 15, 2015 Author Share Posted April 15, 2015 Yet a member of the UKIP party was told they'd be lucky to win 1 seat on national BBC radio this morning. I'm in no way a UKIP supporter but I think they'll probably get about 10, so great bet. Just a point on how the meant to be unbiased BBC portrays the party. They had their manifesto release on the same loop as peacocks damaging cars yesterday. Think you've picked me up wrong. I'm on less than 3.5 I'm not even convinced Farage will take Thanet South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Well which ten seats, give or take, would you expect them to win then, and why? There is little indication that UKIP's general support will consolidate into a seat in anything more than a couple of areas: half a dozen if they're very lucky on the night. More interestingly then is the question of individual seat bets in Scotland ahead of the SNP landslide - is it possible to accumulate them like betting against the diddies on an international weekend? Apparently busted flush Alexander is 1/5 to lose Inverness; I'd like to combine that with many similar outcomes in the Central Belt to gain at least an evens' return. I don't see why not, intending to do similar. As a side bet I might pop a bit on a Tory/Labour coalition at 33/1, it's not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WullieBroonIsGod Posted April 15, 2015 Author Share Posted April 15, 2015 Well which ten seats, give or take, would you expect them to win then, and why? There is little indication that UKIP's general support will consolidate into a seat in anything more than a couple of areas: half a dozen if they're very lucky on the night. More interestingly then is the question of individual seat bets in Scotland ahead of the SNP landslide - is it possible to accumulate them like betting against the diddies on an international weekend? Apparently busted flush Alexander is 1/5 to lose Inverness; I'd like to combine that with many similar outcomes in the Central Belt to gain at least an evens' return. Individual constituency odds are available on bet 365 but you can't acca them up.Neither can you with McBookie, I dunno about any of the other bookmakers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 The fear I have is that the bookies would see each bet as impacting on the other: if you deploy a general swing then an event like the SNP taking Inverness would then seem to make many other seats shoo-ins (even though UNS is stupid and is meaningless now). Which seems to be the "reasoning" now with the bookies. It might be a case of hunting value, like the ridiculous (IIRC Evens) odds on Dundee to have the highest Yes winning margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dee4Life1893 Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Think you've picked me up wrong. I'm on less than 3.5 I'm not even convinced Farage will take Thanet South. Yeah, I've misread you. Apologies. Still think they'll at least cover that over/under. Think I'll back out slowly from this thread. I'll be voting SNP btw, please don't kill me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Under 3.5 seems decent at that price, wouldn't launch a lot into it because I'm not massively convinced that the English marginal polling is definitive yet - UKIP seem to be within margin of error in a few more places and it's difficult to weight a party with considerably more popularity than in 2010 in any poll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WullieBroonIsGod Posted April 15, 2015 Author Share Posted April 15, 2015 Yeah, I've misread you. Apologies. Still think they'll at least cover that over/under. Think I'll back out slowly from this thread. I'll be voting SNP btw, please don't kill me. No, not at all mate. Interested to see where people see value in the betting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Yeah, I've misread you. Apologies. Still think they'll at least cover that over/under. Think I'll back out slowly from this thread. I'll be voting SNP btw, please don't kill me. Aye ok you can stay. The general consensus seems to be 1-3 on UKIP. Their national share of the vote has dipped as we get closer to the poll and even at the heights of the high teens just wasn't concentrated enough anywhere to make a real impact. Although I would forgive anyone watching the BBC who thought they were major players. For my money they return reckless in Rochester and thats their lot. Possibly carswell and farage but I'm sticking with 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Individual constituency odds are available on bet 365 but you can't acca them up. Neither can you with McBookie, I dunno about any of the other bookmakers The fear I have is that the bookies would see each bet as impacting on the other: if you deploy a general swing then an event like the SNP taking Inverness would then seem to make many other seats shoo-ins (even though UNS is stupid and is meaningless now). Which seems to be the "reasoning" now with the bookies. It might be a case of hunting value, like the ridiculous (IIRC Evens) odds on Dundee to have the highest Yes winning margin. Didn't think of that. Think I'll leave the constituency bets alone then because the bookies usually do better than the pollsters, apart from the odd seat where I have personal knowledge. Might even take a bit of that 5/1 on Heelind Champ Danny, the elderly vote might bring it closer than indicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Apparently (Private Eye IIRC) Carsewell is likely to return based on a strong local consitutency backing but Reckless won't. Would expect Farage to slither through on the day (whoever he is up against, crucially) - a shock or two elsewhere in eastern England isn't out of the question though. 1-6 is their likely limit, weighted to the bottom half in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Malkmus Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Got £10 on SNP winning 36-40 seats at 5/1. If they won more than that I'd be happy anyway and I really can't see them winning less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Didn't think of that. Think I'll leave the constituency bets alone then because the bookies usually do better than the pollsters, apart from the odd seat where I have personal knowledge. Might even take a bit of that 5/1 on Heelind Champ Danny, the elderly vote might bring it closer than indicated. Only if you'd hope to lay it closer to the time - he's utterly finished. Trying to run through Bet365 singles now - why are Labour considerable favourites (4-6 v 11-10) in Dunfermline and West Fife? It can't be one of their safest seats, whereas SNP are 8-15 to take East Kilbride etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 And SNP are apparently 1/4 to win Fife NE; sensing that these odds have some weird local discrepancies again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kryptonite Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 Paddy Power on their "Government After The Election" sort have Labour Minority at 7/4 favourite. Labour - SNP coalition was 25/1 Tory - UKIP coalition at 33/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 What are the odds on UKIP winning no seats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted April 15, 2015 Share Posted April 15, 2015 And SNP are apparently 1/4 to win Fife NE; sensing that these odds have some weird local discrepancies again. Dunfermline and WF is one I looked up other day which according to electoral calculus is 71% to go to SNP on a 10% Maj. Fife NE at 1/4 seems reasonable. SNP should take it comfortably as St Andrews aside the SNP are strong here and word on the ground is they are soaking up Ming Campbell's personal vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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