Jump to content

election betting


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 153
  • Created
  • Last Reply

And SNP are apparently 1/4 to win Fife NE; sensing that these odds have some weird local discrepancies again.

I'm in NE Fife. Ming Campbell the outgoing Mp. LD canvassing using the "us or the snp" line. SNP candidate is Stephen Gethins, former advisor to Salmond

In assuming the expected LD collapse is making the bookies give the nats the advantage. Possible student vote on tuition fee stance, although I'd think there are proportionally more international students than elsewhere.

Trident may be an issue for student population.

snp did take this area in Holyrood albeit with slightly different boundaries

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't doubt that NE Fife is a major SNP target but it's currently 1/4, Glenrothes (!) is 8/11 and Dunfermline/W is 11/10. Any local insight into that would be welcome as barring some accys I'm sensing putting on the 20-30 seats which seem decent value for SNP wins - some Edinburgh seats are also far too short at 1/3 IMO; as is Inverclyde at 8/15.

Though the fact that the SNP are 8/15 to win Inverclyde remains absolutely tremendous.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't overstate the student vote in NE fife. St Andrews has around 8000 students so is basically as significant as Tayport. Also many of these students are international or vote at home.

SNP second to the lib dems in terms of council seats in the area but if the collapse is as predicted the snp should be able to take some of those votes.

Interesting to see Hayward Smith under his third banner in as many elections standing as an independent having stood for ukip last time out and Tories before.

It's a funny old seat. Lots of very wealthy smallholding farmers which is prime Tory country, old liberal traditions of st Andrews itself and the north part of the constituency being a colony of Dundee.

The big problem the snp used to have here was the RAF vote in terms of personnel and families but also local businesses relying on Leuchars. Well now the Tories and lib dems have managed to f**k that for themselves.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only if you'd hope to lay it closer to the time - he's utterly finished.

Trying to run through Bet365 singles now - why are Labour considerable favourites (4-6 v 11-10) in Dunfermline and West Fife? It can't be one of their safest seats, whereas SNP are 8-15 to take East Kilbride etc.

Dunfermline went SNP in 2011 but Yes got horsed in the referendum. Having said that, I'd probably imagine it's worth a punt at 11/10

I think anywhere that's South of the river Tay but north of Ayrshire/Borders, the general rule will be that the further West you go the better it is for the SNP. Glasgow and the West looks like shooty in, Edinburgh and Fife might be tougher to win.

Fife might be a struggle for the SNP, in fact. Edinburgh is made a bit easier by the fact that there is a large Lib Dem base to hoover votes from and a fairly large Conservative base which shortens the winning post. Fife might be one part of the country that the SNP find it quite difficult to wipeout.

Paddy Power on their "Government After The Election" sort have Labour Minority at 7/4 favourite.

Labour - SNP coalition was 25/1

Tory - UKIP coalition at 33/1.

Both of those coalitions are mug bets. UKIP simply won't have enough seats to form a coalition and both the SNP and Labour have all but ruled out a formal coalition with each other. If Labour and the SNP do work together, it's almost certain Ed Miliband will be running a minority government with the SNP in a looser agreement to prop the government up and vote with them on occasion.

I don't doubt that NE Fife is a major SNP target but it's currently 1/4, Glenrothes (!) is 8/11 and Dunfermline/W is 11/10. Any local insight into that would be welcome as barring some accys I'm sensing putting on the 20-30 seats which seem decent value for SNP wins - some Edinburgh seats are also far too short at 1/3 IMO; as is Inverclyde at 8/15.

Though the fact that the SNP are 8/15 to win Inverclyde remains absolutely tremendous.

Inverclyde a tough call because they were a bawhair away from going Yes in the referendum, but the SNP failed to win it in 2011 by-election right after the landslide election victory. I'm going to put that down to the fact the SNP had a terrible candidate in Anne McLaughlin but I wouldn't be completely shocked if Labour held on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (minus Brown) is 4/5 for SNP following the non NE Fife trend; Gordon is 1/6. I'd of course reckon that Gordon is more attainable for the SNP than the former but again - the outcome in a two-party seat is easier to predict than a Lib Dem seat against Salmond that could involve tactical voting. The latter is best avoided IMO and the gap between prices there is excessive.

Aysrhire Central is evens for SNP against 8/11 Labour - a local view on that would be much welcomed, given that the odds around that constituency seem to be massively less profitable. For context: N Ayrshire and Arran is 1/6; these are huge differences at work within 30 miles of each other.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is probably the only market I'm interested in so far, from Betfair:

Screen%20Shot%202015-04-15%20at%2023.53.

Salmond only was out at 8/1 for a while, but I think Clegg will hold onto Sheffield Hallam. There Labour have come in from about 3/1 to 6/4, but Clegg has put himself about well recently so I think that'll pull him over the line.

I'm pretty confident Farage won't win: he's apparently barely on the ground there, and the private polling isn't looking very good for him. 5/2 for the blues at Betfair.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't doubt that NE Fife is a major SNP target but it's currently 1/4, Glenrothes (!) is 8/11 and Dunfermline/W is 11/10. Any local insight into that would be welcome as barring some accys I'm sensing putting on the 20-30 seats which seem decent value for SNP wins - some Edinburgh seats are also far too short at 1/3 IMO; as is Inverclyde at 8/15.

Though the fact that the SNP are 8/15 to win Inverclyde remains absolutely tremendous.

You can get Glenrothes at 5/6 with McBookie

I'm having a bit of that.

Outgoing Mp former teacher Lindsay Roy.

Was a huge labour majority which I think is affecting the price.

Peter Grant local SNP councillor contesting the seat.

SNP recently won a council by-election (Glenrothes west and Kinglassie)

Constituency includes Most of the Levenmout, Kinglassie

At Holyrood, mid fife and Glenrothes retured Marwick as MSP

Not a cert, as labour majority in 2010 was huge, but losing local incumbent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Inverclyde a tough call because they were a bawhair away from going Yes in the referendum, but the SNP failed to win it in 2011 by-election right after the landslide election victory. I'm going to put that down to the fact the SNP had a terrible candidate in Anne McLaughlin but I wouldn't be completely shocked if Labour held on.

I wouldn't be shocked by Inverclyde voting for Labour ever; the opposite remains the case. That said, SNP have a stronger candidate than they could have selected from the council ranks and they should win the seat.

Any level of swing involves outliers though so I wouldn't consider 8/15 good value, least of all in an area where the SNP have never had an MP nor an MSP so far; the Lib Dems were previous representatives in the area so tend to cling onto more potentially costly votes than elsewhere. Now is probably the time for representation to finally change but those odds remain too short.

In more general terms, an analysis that largely relies on the votes of the referendum will fail, massively. It would be more useful for the larger bloc of ex-Labour pro-Yes voters who seem to be contributing to the newly decisive SNP plurality. Otherwise I very much doubt it can provide any insight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (minus Brown) is 4/5 for SNP following the non NE Fife trend; Gordon is 1/6. I'd of course reckon that Gordon is more attainable for the SNP than the former but again - the outcome in a two-party seat is easier to predict than a Lib Dem seat against Salmond that could involve tactical voting. The latter is best avoided IMO and the gap between prices there is excessive.

Aysrhire Central is evens for SNP against 8/11 Labour - a local view on that would be much welcomed, given that the odds around that constituency seem to be massively less profitable. For context: N Ayrshire and Arran is 1/6; these are huge differences at work within 30 miles of each other.

SNP coming from 3rd place in Central as opposed to 2nd in North and Arran, bigger Tory base in Central Ayrshire that may vote tactically as well

Higher Yes vote in North Ayrshire than in South and East Ayrshire as well

Also if you look at the corresponding Holyrood chairs. Cunninghame North went SNP in 2007 and was a massive SNP majority in 2011, Cunninghame South was Labour in 2007 and marginally SNP in 2011.

The Northern part of Ayrshire is by far the most SNP friendly bit of the county.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can get Glenrothes at 5/6 with McBookie

I'm having a bit of that.

Outgoing Mp former teacher Lindsay Roy.

Was a huge labour majority which I think is affecting the price.

Peter Grant local SNP councillor contesting the seat.

SNP recently won a council by-election (Glenrothes west and Kinglassie)

Constituency includes Most of the Levenmout, Kinglassie

At Holyrood, mid fife and Glenrothes retured Marwick as MSP

Not a cert, as labour majority in 2010 was huge, but losing local incumbent.

Definitely seems worth a punt; the Dunfermline price still seems the biggest prize going so far though

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I put a fairly hefty bet on a Tory/Liberal coalition a few weeks ago at 6/1, hasn't changed. My theory is that people tell pollsters about their dreams, not their fears, and on polling day they side with the status quo if it hasn't been too awful to them personally, and fcuk everyone else. Scotland has had an earthquake of change, but a lot of people carried away with the SNP bandwagon will retain a loyalty or liking for the incumbent, and of course the rest of the UK will carry on as usual.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SNP coming from 3rd place in Central as opposed to 2nd in North and Arran, bigger Tory base in Central Ayrshire that may vote tactically as well

Higher Yes vote in North Ayrshire than in South and East Ayrshire as well

Also if you look at the corresponding Holyrood chairs. Cunninghame North went SNP in 2007 and was a massive SNP majority in 2011, Cunninghame South was Labour in 2007 and marginally SNP in 2011.

The Northern part of Ayrshire is by far the most SNP friendly bit of the county.

We're still dealing with an absolutely huge, 1/6 v evens pricing, in a current environment where the SNP are polling easily at 45%. That remains to me a huge discrepancy; and if the polls are correct, Ayrshire Central is barely on the 'maybe' list.

It seems to me that the bookies are cutting their losses by placing tiny prices on a number of presumed safe SNP gains; best to plough through the rest for value.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I put a fairly hefty bet on a Tory/Liberal coalition a few weeks ago at 6/1, hasn't changed. My theory is that people tell pollsters about their dreams, not their fears, and on polling day they side with the status quo if it hasn't been too awful to them personally, and fcuk everyone else. Scotland has had an earthquake of change, but a lot of people carried away with the SNP bandwagon will retain a loyalty or liking for the incumbent, and of course the rest of the UK will carry on as usual.

Shame that your theory isn't actually backed up with any credible social scientific analyses then - otherwise you'd actually make a killing in this market, every time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Individual constituency odds are available on bet 365 but you can't acca them up.

Neither can you with McBookie, I dunno about any of the other bookmakers

There is no way if I was a bookie. I'd accept accumulation bets for election seats. Since if one seat goes a certain way, you can be pretty sure a whole bunch of other seats have gone the same way. I'd just bet on 20 odd seats I know are sure fire certainties for the SNP or Tories to win, and get a ridiculous payoff as a result.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Shame that your theory isn't actually backed up with any credible social scientific analyses then - otherwise you'd actually make a killing in this market, every time.

Terribly sorry.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I hate to be "that guy" but I think the best value odds might be on some of the potential Labour holds

Edinburgh South West 11/4

Paisley and Renfrewshire North 11/10

Stirling 11/8

Dumfries and Galloway 5/4

Also really like the look of the Tories at 7/4 in Berwickshire,

Best value SNP odds IMO

Dunfermline EVS

East Lothian 11/8

Edinburgh North and Leith 6/5

Glasgow South West 11/10

Ross, Skye and Lochaber EVS

Rutherglen and Hamilton West 11/8

Link to comment
Share on other sites

East Lothian 11/8

Edinburgh South 6/5

Glasgow South-West Evens

Paisley and Renf N 10/11

P and Renf S 11/10

Renfrewshire E 2/1

Ross Skye and Lochaber 11/10

Rutherglen and Hamilton West 11/8

All strike me as fairly generous odds for the winning party against the assorted rabble up against them. Local views of the campaign very much appreciated.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...