Holyrood '16 polls and predictions

[renton]

I can't find them anywhere unfortunately. It's a yougov poll for the times, and that 'Scotland votes' twitter feed posted it earlier on.

 

Found the tracker here:

 

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ngteikz0fp/YG-trackers-Scotland.pdf

 

Remarkably consistent. Last three constiuency polls have SNP 50/49/50. For Labour it's 19/19/21. So SNP are technically +1 and Labour +2 from the last poll. Oddly enough the SNP are +1 on the list at 45, whereas the other recent polls idnicated a wee slip on the list there.Tories came in at 18 on the last three constituency polls.

[renton]

Sturgeon net approval rating: +30

Dugdale net approval rating: -20

Davidson net approval rating: +3.

[Crossbill]

Sturgeon net approval rating: +30

Dugdale net approval rating: -20

Davidson net approval rating: +3.

 

The desperate attempts to avoid mentioning that Ruth Davidson is a tory seem to be paying off.  

 

I had a leaflet through from them for the local conservative candidate yesterday that had just a single mention of the conservatives - a small party emblem on the bottom right corner.  Everything else was 'Vote Ruth'.

[renton]

The desperate attempts to avoid mentioning that Ruth Davidson is a tory seem to be paying off.  

 

I had a leaflet through from them for the local conservative candidate yesterday that had just a single mention of the conservatives - a small party emblem on the bottom right corner.  Everything else was 'Vote Ruth'.

 

Yeah, since January there has been a 5-6 point direct swing from Labour to the Tories. SNP and Lib dems were static over the same time period. basically 20% of Labour's remaining vote going into 2016 has deserted, largely over Tory claims to be the true defender of the Union. Half of Labour's old support deserted to the SNP post 2014, and now a fifth of the remaining support has gone to the Tories. Labour really are a party without a cause at the minute, and it's killing them.

[Dunning1874]

 

UKIP 2 (are UKIP even standing in constituencies?)

 

Nope, not a single one, so there's a wee flaw in the pollsters methodology there in allowing anyone to pick UKIP for the constituency.

 

I really can't see how the Tories could end up with 24 seats from that share of the vote. Even allowing for them holding their three constituency seats in South rather than losing two or all three, where are all the List seats coming from when their vote share is lower than Labour?

[John Lambies Doos]

Labour )

[Kyle]

Found the changes;

 

Constituency

 

SNP 50 (+1)

LAB 21 (+2)

CON 19 (-1)

LIB DEMS 5 (-1)

OTHER (-1)

 

List

 

SNP 45 (+2)

LAB 19 (+2)

CON 18 (-1)

LIB DEMS 5 (-)

OTHER 12 (-3)

 

Here's the article in the times also;

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-prefer-davidson-to-dugdale-in-opposition-qpsn855gx

 

To answer Dunning's post earlier - they have the Tories winning 5 consistuencies and 19 on the list, with labour taking all of their 23 seats on the list based on these figures.

 

http://www.scotlandvotes.com/share/f2u0imbrri

[welshbairn]

 

 

Here's the article in the times also;

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/scotland/scots-prefer-davidson-to-dugdale-in-opposition-qpsn855gx

 

 

 

Cutting cutting..

 

 

It was hoped that Kezia Dugdale’s popularity would rise with her profile, but the opposite appears to have happened

[doulikefish]

I wonder when we're getting a Gordon Brown intervention?

He was in Cowdenbeath high street last saturday

[Miguel Sanchez]

Got a leaflet through the door today from JoLo. It only mentions the SNP once, bemoaning the drop in college courses. I'm almost disappointed.

[Fide]

From Britain Elects via Yougov

 

On how well Ruth Davidson is doing as Scottish Conservative Party leader:

 

Well: 37% (+2)

Badly: 35% (+2)

NET: +2

 

On how well Kezia Dugdale is doing as Scottish Labour Party leader: .

 

Well: 24% (+2)

Badly: 44% (+5)

NET: -20

 

On how well Nicola Sturgeon is doing as First Minister:

 

Well: 60% (-)

Badly: 30% (-1)

NET: +30

 

Scottish Parliament VI (constituency):

 

SNP: 50% (+1)

LAB: 21% (+2)

CON: 18% (-1)

LDEM: 5% (-1)

(via YouGov / 07 - 11 Apr)

 

Scottish Parliament VI (list):

 

SNP: 45% (+2)

LAB: 19% (+2)

CON: 18% (-1)

GRN: 8% (-) 3

LDEM: 5% (-1)

UKIP: 3% (-1)

(via YouGov / 07 - 11 Apr)

[Mr Rational]

Yeah, I've just been polled by Panelbase, lots of Scottish questions in this one, do you think there should be another referendum, EU, immigration, how did you vote etc.

So obviously I was a no/labour voter that had seen the light and was now SNP and yes.....

[glasgow-sheep]

Cutbot comes up with some rather different figures:
http://vote.cutbot.net/forecast/bd4a7792

 

SNP 71

Labour 25

Tory 20

Green 9

LibDem 3

UKIP 1

 

Site also breaks it down seat by seat too with their prediction giving the SNP Orkney and the Greens squeezing out two seats in Lothian and Glasgow while only just missing out on Glasgow Kelvin and Edinburgh Central

 

ETA: it gives the Tories Eastwood by quite a margin and shoves Ken MacIntosh into 3rd

[Kyle]

Cutbot comes up with some rather different figures:

http://vote.cutbot.net/forecast/bd4a7792

 

SNP 71

Labour 25

Tory 20

Green 9

LibDem 3

UKIP 1

 

Site also breaks it down seat by seat too with their prediction giving the SNP Orkney and the Greens squeezing out two seats in Lothian and Glasgow while only just missing out on Glasgow Kelvin and Edinburgh Central

 

ETA: it gives the Tories Eastwood by quite a margin and shoves Ken MacIntosh into 3rd

 

That's some website. Cheers for that! Very interesting.

[glasgow-sheep]

That's some website. Cheers for that! Very interesting.

 Lot of assumptions and guess work, esp looking at Kelvin/E.Central but interesting none the less.

Shows how relatively few votes from/to the SNP and others on the List can have a significant effect too.

[invergowrie arab]

There seems to be a few polls now that suggest about 10% of SNP constituency voters will give their votes to the Greens for the list.

What polls show this?

[Glenn Medeiros]

When the SNP drops from 50% to 45% on the list.   These polls. 

[Mark Connolly]

I listened to a bit of the Ruthie phone in on Radio Scotland this morning, and I just don't get her approach.

 

Most of her answers involved telling people about stuff that will be in the manifesto, then telling them that she wants to be leader of the opposition so she can hold the SNP to account.

 

What's the point (insert Mixu.gif) in having a manifesto telling everyone what you'll do if you win when your stated objective isn't to actually win?

[Reluctant Hero]

If anyone is interested, I have pulled together a spreadsheet to record the election results as they come in.

 

You can also use it beforehand to forecast the number of seats each party will get as well.

 

To use it, simply click on the link at the bottom, then download the file.  Then go into the “2016 Result†tab and enter the results or forecasts in column F, for the constituency results.  Also record the size of the electorate in the relevant white box in Column L

 

For the regional results or forecasts enter the relevant amounts in each column in the “Regional Results†tab.

 

The “Overviewâ€, “No of Seats†and “Turnout†tabs will then be automatically updated.  Column P on the far right of the Overview tab can be used to make notes about constituencies to make the evening even more exciting lol.  I have started the ball rolling with a few notes.

 

This is just for a bit of fun, so this spreadsheet is used at your own risk.  I cannot take any responsibility for any going wrong or any errors.

 

The calculations for allocating the regional results were pretty complex, but I am hopeful it all works OK.

 

Link to Spready

 

Hope someone uses it! 

[Granny Danger]

What polls show this?

Is this a serious question?