Baxter Parp Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Mahelp said: The Herald readership tends to be largely pro-independence. But the Herald is largely pro-union. I doubt there's any evidence that their readership is largely pro-independence given the majority of their online comments. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Baxter Parp said: It's not 2014 anymore. HTH. If only it was for Lex. The constitutional question seemingly settled. St Mirren in the top flight. The good old days, as Lex calls them. 3 hours ago, Loondave1 said: Pantlion said "should never get to decide" i am merely pointing out the obvious flaw in that statement. Are you 6? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 12 minutes ago, renton said: She could have in Summer 2020, if she so wished. Any time frame for an independence referendum is a gamble, a campaign to be won through persuasion rather than the other kind of referendum that is a rubber stamp for accepted popular opinion. Support for independence has remained largely static in the mid 40s (dks removed) even as SNP vote share dropped in the last Westminster election (the only time SNP vote share has really dropped, from what was an unsustainable figure), that's as good a platform as we are likely to get. And if, as you argue, the SNP look likely to lose sufficient momentum to allow them to call a referendum after 2021, why would they wait? Well If Brexit doesn't work they'll surely keep the majority. They've had a pro indy majority in Holyrood since 2011 afterall. Yes's best chance is that Brexit is a disaster, another pro indy majority in 2021 as a result and a referendum in 2022. They'll surely win in those circumstances, that would shift the momentum right back in their favour. Or have it it before Brexit has been given an opportunity to be a disaster when the SNP have just lost seats at 3 elections in a row...? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Bob Mahelp Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Lex said: Well If Brexit doesn't work they'll surely keep the majority. They've had a pro indy majority in Holyrood since 2011 afterall. Yes's best chance is that Brexit is a disaster, another pro indy majority in 2021 as a result and a referendum in 2022. They'll surely win in those circumstances, that would shift the momentum right back in their favour. Or have it it before Brexit has been given an opportunity to be a disaster when the SNP have just lost seats at 3 elections in a row...? The concept of Brexit 'working' is going to be purely down to perception. If you read the DM or Express, it's the greatest thing ever and they're continue saying that no matter what the hell happens. If you're a Grauniad reader then it's doom and gloom and disaster all the way (probably closer to the truth of Brexit). If the UK becomes an economic and social wilderness due to Brexit, the right-wing media will still keep on banging the drum about 'getting back control', and tens of millions of ignorant, braindead, blinkered fuckwits the UK over will actually believe it. Edited June 23, 2017 by Bob Mahelp 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lex Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said: The concept of Brexit 'working' is going to be purely down to perception. If you read the DM or Express, it's the greatest thing ever and they're continue saying that no matter what the hell happens. If you're a Grauniad reader then it's doom and gloom and disaster all the way (probably closer to the truth of Brexit). If the UK becomes an economic and social wilderness due to Brexit, the right-wing media will still keep on banging the drum about 'getting back control', and tens of millions of ignorant, braindead, blinkered fuckwits the UK over will actually believe it. The reality of Brexit is that not much is going to change in the short term, certainly not for Joe Public. Won't stop politicians on both sides over egging the positives and negatives for political capital though. It's going to be down to who eggs best. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, Lex said: Well If Brexit doesn't work they'll surely keep the majority. They've had a pro indy majority in Holyrood since 2011 afterall. Yes's best chance is that Brexit is a disaster, another pro indy majority in 2021 as a result and a referendum in 2022. They'll surely win in those circumstances, that would shift the momentum right back in their favour. Or have it it before Brexit has been given an opportunity to be a disaster when the SNP have just lost seats at 3 elections in a row...? Very much depends on what the election issues are, at the time. In terms of the timing, people don't thank you for standing aside while they get shat on. Therefore waiting until the disaster, such as it may be, unfold will not garner favour for the SNP. Factor in also, that there is not a simple relationship between regressive economic circumstances and deciding to jump for another constitutional option. Indy has to be more than 'not Brexit' to succeed, even if Brexit is the Cuasus Belli. No way you cut it makes going after another election any less risky than going before it. As for losing seats, well they got more actual votes in '16 vs '11, even as the vagaries of d'Hondt robbed them of an overall majority, that the 'lost' 7 seats in the council elections were largely illusory based on one academic's assumed model, leaving only the Westminster election as a real push back for the SNP, on their traditionally least favoured ground and still with an overall majority. In a mechanical sense, it leaves them in the same place as it was before in terms of their overall ability to influence Westminster. In a PR sense it's certainly a wound, but not mortal, and shouldn't be sufficient to make the leadership frit of sticking to a referendum in the space between negotiation and leaving the EU. Edited June 23, 2017 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 The reality of Brexit is that not much is going to change in the short term, certainly not for Joe Public. Won't stop politicians on both sides over egging the positives and negatives for political capital though. It's going to be down to who eggs best. You don't have referendums so that nothing changes.Joe Public will be the first to suffer and suffer the hardest when this all goes to shit.You only need to look at the financial crash to see where Joe public fits in to this country. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 5 hours ago, Loondave1 said: I think it did decide in 2014. To be a region of an EU member state, yes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakedee Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 We've got a majority now in parliament. There is a real danger this might not happen again in the next Holyrood election or even the one after that. We MUST seize the opportunity whilst we still have the numbers to do so. It could be an utter travesty if we don't in my opinion If we don't it will be like the Jacobites turning back at Derby and probably with the same consequences (in a political sense). I'm beginning to come to the view that this might not be a bad thing for the long term goal.Labour/Tory Government after the next Holyrood election and the clusterfuk that would then ensue, would have independence a certainty the parliament after that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 To be a region of an EU member state, yes. Yup.Democracy is so annoying when you are on the losing side. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Are you 6? I thought it was worthy of Oscar Wilde personaly. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 Yup.Democracy is so annoying when you are on the losing side. You should know all about that being a Scottish guy who votes Labour. If only there was something you could've done that would've meant you permanently lived under a Labour or Labour'esque type government. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 You should know all about that being a Scottish guy who votes Labour. If only there was something you could've done that would've meant you permanently lived under a Labour or Labour'esque type government. Yes of course a hundred year Reich of Corbynista Labour at Westminster.Looking forward to it.The vote SNP/YES and get a left wing Shangrila line just doesn't work with me.Indy2 imho has truly went in the bin recently and thinking it's a possibility i shall leave to Nats talking to each other. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUFC90 Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 3 hours ago, Loondave1 said: Yes of course a hundred year Reich of Corbynista Labour at Westminster.Looking forward to it.The vote SNP/YES and get a left wing Shangrila line just doesn't work with me.Indy2 imho has truly went in the bin recently and thinking it's a possibility i shall leave to Nats talking to each other. I have no doubts an independent Scotland would never elect a party of useless right wing charlatans like the London Tory party. Indy 2 hasn't went in the bin. There is still a mandate from a record breaking Holyrood victory just last year and of course a majority of seats this year. Yes hasn't dropped support one bit despite 4 years of SNP/Indy bad. It's not going anywhere I'm afraid. I don't want a referendum now and I'll always be a yes. I'd rather not have to listen to every politician and media pundit in the land continually bang on about it either. As for the end of your post....GOOD, one less self confessed troll can only be a good thing. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted June 23, 2017 Share Posted June 23, 2017 I think it did decide in 2014. Confusing the subjunctive with the past tense post in my opinion Are you 12? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted June 24, 2017 Share Posted June 24, 2017 (edited) 14 hours ago, Loondave1 said: Yup.Democracy is so annoying when you are on the losing side. It's also apparently annoying when it doesn't just stop happening after you've got the decision you want. Your strong 'n' stable dear leader Theresa has probably come to realise that too. Edited June 24, 2017 by Antlion 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted June 24, 2017 Share Posted June 24, 2017 Confusing the subjunctive with the past tense post in my opinion Are you 12? I was asked if i was 6 on another thread so feel real progress is being made. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted June 24, 2017 Share Posted June 24, 2017 Not really. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted June 24, 2017 Share Posted June 24, 2017 It's also apparently annoying when it doesn't just stop happening after you've got the decision you want. Your strong 'n' stable dear leader Theresa has probably come to realise that too. Assuming anyone disagreeing with you is a dyed in the wool Conservative is a tiresome logical process. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btb Posted June 24, 2017 Share Posted June 24, 2017 On 23/06/2017 at 11:50, renton said: On 23/06/2017 at 11:44, btb said: IndyRef2 should be put on the backburner until after the Brexit deal is completed. That's literally been Sturgeon's plan from the start, so not sure what would change other than emphasizing the fact. I'm a Nat myself but even allowing for the fact that different things have been said at different times that's just revisionism Quote First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announces independence referendum will be between Autumn 2018 and Spring 2019 Ms Sturgeon says she will seek Scottish Parliament approval for a second independence referendum next week The franchise and question in the second independence referendum is for the Scottish Parliament to decide says the first minister http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39255256 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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