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When will indyref2 happen?


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Indyref2  

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1 minute ago, The_Kincardine said:

On balance I'd probably be more comfortable living in Scotland within the EU than in England outside of The EU so I don't really have much skin in this game.

BUT when I read things like, "Scotland will have an " extremely short process of joining the EU"" then you know posters are talking shit.

It's contingent on an amicable and mutually beneficial settlement with the rUK, if Westminster finds some grown ups to run it by then, but if so, all the conditions for EU membership are already met, so it would just be a few forms to fill in. 

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3 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Then make it part of any future ballot.  I'd welcome it.  You won't, though.

As you know, that is impossible before a final settlement is known with the rUK, so at least 2 years after a referendum.

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5 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Then make it part of any future ballot.  I'd welcome it.  You won't, though.

As an irrelevant foreigner what you'd welcome is entirely irrelevant.

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

It's contingent on an amicable and mutually beneficial settlement with the rUK

No. The two aren't connected.

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3 minutes ago, This time Perthshirebell said:

My opinion is that Scotland would have an extremely short process of joining the EU.    Based on Scotland wanting to join/remain and the EU desperate to keep us, and the countless meeting our FM has had with Brussels representatives.     That's my opinion.   

Be interesting to hear your opinion about how long it would take Scotland to join the EU?    And evidence to back up your opinion.   

If there is a future ballot (and that's unanswered) but let's be optimistic:

2022 - Ballot for Scotland's divorce from rUK and assuming an outcome in favour of the Yessers:
2022 - 24 Negotiation over divorce settlement between New Scotland and rUK.
2025-27 Transition period for New Scotland and rUK to implement divorce plans
2028 - Application for New Scotland to join the EU
2028 to at least 2031 - due diligence from the EU to ensure New Scotland meets accession criteria.

How's that?

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Just now, This time Perthshirebell said:

So 0-3 years In your opinion.   

Can you be more specific as to why you believe it will take Scotland between 0-3 years to rejoin EU.    You failed to point that out.   

I typed 4 lines pointing that out.

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3 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

If there is a future ballot (and that's unanswered) but let's be optimistic:

2022 - Ballot for Scotland's divorce from rUK and assuming an outcome in favour of the Yessers:
2022 - 24 Negotiation over divorce settlement between New Scotland and rUK.
2025-27 Transition period for New Scotland and rUK to implement divorce plans
2028 - Application for New Scotland to join the EU
2028 to at least 2031 - due diligence from the EU to ensure New Scotland meets accession criteria.

How's that?

Hilariously funny.😂

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13 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

 

No. The two aren't connected.

Our financial settlement will have to be resolved, as will our trading arrangements. Apart from that we're good to go.

Edited by welshbairn
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18 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

As you know, that is impossible before a final settlement is known with the rUK, so at least 2 years after a referendum.

I accept that entirely.  BUT you secessionists have got to stop saying that you'll just fall easily in to the EU.  The choice is simple:  Commit to a timetable or stop trying to fool people.

Edit:  The driver for this second referendum centres around accession to The EU.  I sympathise with this.  BUT the electorate need more than just, "It will be easy" and only a fool would disagree.

Edited by The_Kincardine
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3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Our financial settlement will have to be resolved, as will our trading arrangements. Apart from that we're good to go.

The financial settlement will have to be resolved. But this has nothing to do with the EU.

Our trading arrangements will be as per the EU.

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2 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

I accept that entirely.  BUT you secessionists have got to stop saying that you'll just fall easily in to the EU.  The choice is simple:  Commit to a timetable or stop trying to fool people.

If you accept that then you know that a timetable can't be set while the rUK settlement is unknown. 

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1 minute ago, This time Perthshirebell said:

No you typed 4 lines suggesting ( without any evidence ) why it would take Scotland more than 1/2 a decade to divorce the UK.    You then go onto suggest it will take between 0-3 years (or more) for Scotland to rejoin the EU.    Just wondering your evidence for this?    Or did you just make it up?  

 

The latter.

Just now, welshbairn said:

If you accept that then you know that a timetable can't be set while the rUK settlement is unknown. 

Nope. The rUK settlement is irrelevant.

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Just now, welshbairn said:

If you accept that then you know that a timetable can't be set while the rUK settlement is unknown. 

I did a 'back of a fag packet' reckoning above - which is reasonably credible - and that puts New Scotland's EU accession to beyond 2030.  Are you happy putting that to the voters?

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1 minute ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

The financial settlement will have to be resolved. But this has nothing to do with the EU.

Our trading arrangements will be as per the EU.

The EU demands a stable financial system.

What happens if we have chlorinated chicken flowing through an open border to our food processing plants preparing tasty meals for export to the EU?

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5 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

I did a 'back of a fag packet' reckoning above - which is reasonably credible - and that puts New Scotland's EU accession to beyond 2030.  Are you happy putting that to the voters?

You made it 5 years for Scotland to break from rUK. It took Slovakia 6 months to break from the Czech Republic.

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8 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Half of me thinks we should be brutally honest about how long it might take and half of me wants us to sink lower than better together and just lie lie lie to victory.

Except we have the experience of Brexit to call upon and we all know how that turned septic   If any future independence campaign is precursored of shite like, "EU accession will be easy" then it will founder, just as the last one did.

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For information, Sweden, which had never been in the EU, applied to join on 1 July 1991 and became a member on 1 January 1995, 3 1/2 years later.

A country which has been in the EU for 46 years and which meets all entry requirements will have a far shorter negotiating period.

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Just now, The_Kincardine said:

Except we have the experience of Brexit to call upon and we all know how that turned septic   If any future independence campaign is precursored of shite like, "EU accession will be easy" then it will founder, just as the last one did.

Brexit isn't relevant.

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