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When will indyref2 happen?


Colkitto

Indyref2  

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4 hours ago, kirkyblue2 said:

Does that mean if yes win then we are out of the EU before rUK?

No. That would be an imbecilic conclusion to draw. We would remain in the EU courtesy of our UK membership.

Presuming post yes vote negotiation with the rUK took, as suggested above, 18 months and i-day would be after this, then as supported by the experts cited, there is no concievable way Scotland could be outwith the EU prior to the rUK.

If negotiaition between iScotland and the EU was not concluded prior to rUK exiting the EU then we would leave at the same time.

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33 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

No. That would be an imbecilic conclusion to draw. We would remain in the EU courtesy of our UK membership.

Presuming post yes vote negotiation with the rUK took, as suggested above, 18 months and i-day would be after this, then as supported by the experts cited, there is no concievable way Scotland could be outwith the EU prior to the rUK.

If negotiaition between iScotland and the EU was not concluded prior to rUK exiting the EU then we would leave at the same time.

Nonsense.

As I have stated previously on several occasions (with supporting links), the Vice-President of the European Commission says that Scotland would leave the EU if it votes for independence before Brexit. She says that Article 49, not Article 48 as claimed by the SNP and those cited "experts" would apply. Even those that disagree with her would agree that Article 49 is the "conceivable way". 

Even if Article 48 did apply, the Scottish Government would still need to demonstrate that iScotland would comply with all 35 chapters of the acquisition (European law) on independence day. Compliance would depend on completing a divorce agreement with the UK and then completing all necessary compliance legislation - all within 18 months. There is more chance of seeing Elvis riding Shergar down the Royal Mile to Holyrood on Independence Day. 

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7 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Nonsense.

As I have stated previously on several occasions (with supporting links), the Vice-President of the European Commission says that Scotland would leave the EU if it votes for independence before Brexit. She says that Article 49, not Article 48 as claimed by the SNP and those cited "experts" would apply. Even those that disagree with her would agree that Article 49 is the "conceivable way". 

Even if Article 48 did apply, the Scottish Government would still need to demonstrate that iScotland would comply with all 35 chapters of the acquisition (European law) on independence day. Compliance would depend on completing a divorce agreement with the UK and then completing all necessary compliance legislation - all within 18 months. There is more chance of seeing Elvis riding Shergar down the Royal Mile to Holyrood on Independence Day. 

You are not quite getting the point I was making.

The whole article 48/49 pathway debate is a whole different argument.

I was responding to the numptyish proposition that iScotland could be out the EU prior to the rUK.

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14 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Nonsense.

As I have stated previously on several occasions (with supporting links), the Vice-President of the European Commission says that Scotland would leave the EU if it votes for independence before Brexit. She says that Article 49, not Article 48 as claimed by the SNP and those cited "experts" would apply. Even those that disagree with her would agree that Article 49 is the "conceivable way". 

Even if Article 48 did apply, the Scottish Government would still need to demonstrate that iScotland would comply with all 35 chapters of the acquisition (European law) on independence day. Compliance would depend on completing a divorce agreement with the UK and then completing all necessary compliance legislation - all within 18 months. There is more chance of seeing Elvis riding Shergar down the Royal Mile to Holyrood on Independence Day. 

Easily done if the political will is there which it quite clearly will be.

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Just now, git-intae-thum said:

You are not quite getting the point I was making.

The whole article 48/49 pathway debate is a whole different argument.

I was responding to the numptyish proposition that iScotland could be out the EU prior to the rUK.

It could happen if independence was achieved before Brexit. The consolidated EU Treaties allow for the Brexit timetable to be extended beyond two years limit - with the agreement of all the other Member States.

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6 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

You are not quite getting the point I was making.

The whole article 48/49 pathway debate is a whole different argument.

I was responding to the numptyish proposition that iScotland could be out the EU prior to the rUK.

Alright calm down, I was forgetting about the 2 years or whatever it is to negotiate the terms of leaving.

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1 minute ago, AUFC90 said:

Easily done if the political will is there which it quite clearly will be.

No so. The currency issue alone could be a major barrier to EU entry. Then there are other non-devolved areas where major legislation would be required to comply with the acquisition. And all this would need to happen whilst Brexit is being negotiated!

EU Treaties are non-negotiable and are rigidly enforced by the Court of Justice. Then you have the Catalonia/Spanish problem plus the countries who are already negotiating entry who would object to Scotland's queue-jumping.

Get real!

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No so. The currency issue alone could be a major barrier to EU entry. Then there are other non-devolved areas where major legislation would be required to comply with the acquisition. And all this would need to happen whilst Brexit is being negotiated!
EU Treaties are non-negotiable and are rigidly enforced by the Court of Justice. Then you have the Catalonia/Spanish problem plus the countries who are already negotiating entry who would object to Scotland's queue-jumping.
Get real!

Queue jumping? Europeans don't know the meaning of the word! [emoji6]
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11 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

No so. The currency issue alone could be a major barrier to EU entry. Then there are other non-devolved areas where major legislation would be required to comply with the acquisition. And all this would need to happen whilst Brexit is being negotiated!

EU Treaties are non-negotiable and are rigidly enforced by the Court of Justice. Then you have the Catalonia/Spanish problem plus the countries who are already negotiating entry who would object to Scotland's queue-jumping.

Get real!

I am getting real, the courts will go along with whatever the major countries like as per usual. The " Spanish problem" doesn't exist and absolutely nobody cares about the mewlings of non members on the outskirts of Europe. Political expedience will win the day as always.

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Let's be practical. 

An independent Scotland, as a first step, could apply to join the EEA/Single Market as an EFTA member. That would avoid all the Article 48/49 nonsense and could also be achieved very quickly. Like Norway, it could negotiate its own bilateral trade agreements with rUK and other countries.

In the end, it will come down to a choice between Single Market membership or a trade agreement like the UK's Brexit deal. Hopefully, we'll get a referendum on that choice.

Edited by Bishop Briggs
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1 minute ago, AUFC90 said:

I am getting real, the courts will go along with whatever the major countries like as per usual. The " Spanish problem" doesn't exist and absolutely nobody cares about the mewlings of non members on the outskirts of Europe. Political expedience will win the day as always.

No they won't. The ECJ judges are rigid in enforcing the Treaties.

The Spanish problem will exist if a region is able to the EU immediately on gaining independence.

The EU Commission said that Article 49 will apply to an independent Catalonia.

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1 minute ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Let's be practical. 

An independent Scotland, as a first step, could apply to join the EEA/Single Market as an EFTA member. That would avoid all the Article 48/49 nonsense and could also be achieved very quickly. Like Norway, it could negotiate its own bilateral trade agreements with rUK and other countries.

In the end, it will come down to a choice between Single Market membership or a trade agreement like the UK's Brexit deal. Hopefully, we'll get a referendum on that choice.

I don't see the point in paying for access and abiding by all the rules anyway, might as well be a member. Hopefully we do get a referendum.....I think it would be foolish of the SNP to go into indy ref 2 arguing for the EU. Independence is bigger than that, Brexit vote is the trigger but allowing a referendum on both is how it will be won.

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1 minute ago, Bishop Briggs said:

No they won't. The ECJ judges are rigid in enforcing the Treaties.

The Spanish problem will exist if a region is able to the EU immediately on gaining independence.

The EU Commission said that Article 49 will apply to an independent Catalonia.

Are they aye ? What do they do to a member such a France if it flaunts the rules ? Community service ? Poland is due a fine and 50 lashes for not taking up the beloved Euro.

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5 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said:

Let's be practical. 

An independent Scotland, as a first step, could apply to join the EEA/Single Market as an EFTA member. That would avoid all the Article 48/49 nonsense and could also be achieved very quickly. Like Norway, it could negotiate its own bilateral trade agreements with rUK and other countries.

In the end, it will come down to a choice between Single Market membership or a trade agreement like the UK's Brexit deal. Hopefully, we'll get a referendum on that choice.

Good points in fairness. There is clearly a debate to be had regarding our European relations.

But it needs to be OUR debate, post indepence. 

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2 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:


Of course, Scotland doesn't have the intelligence to produce a white paper.. too wee and stupid. But of course the mighty GB does and it's gospel.
Wee man syndrome

WTF are you on about? There was a White Paper for IndyRef1, devalued with false promises and unrealistic timescales. There will be another for Indyref2, hopefully more realistic with a credible currency plan.

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1 minute ago, AUFC90 said:

Are they aye ? What do they do to a member such a France if it flaunts the rules ? Community service ? Poland is due a fine and 50 lashes for not taking up the beloved Euro.

The ECJ can levy harsh fines - http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-05-482_en.htm

For France -

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-06-1756_en.htm

http://www.ictsd.org/bridges-news/biores/news/european-court-fines-france-over-fishing

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