By election updates

[Glenconner]

On 27 February 2017 at 10:20, Scary Bear said:

Ban auld MPs?

Bertie Auld?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It was Kauffman who called the 1983 Labour Party manifesto the "longest suicide note in history".

[topcat(The most tip top)]

It was Kauffman who called the 1983 Labour Party manifesto the "longest suicide note in history".

That was the last time Labour opposed EU Membership

It was also when Jeremy Corbyn first entered parliament

[WaffenThinMint]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

It was Kauffman who called the 1983 Labour Party manifesto the "longest suicide note in history".

Yeah, but only after they lost & the traditional Labour scapegoating & retributions began - which saw able people like Ken Livingstone sidelined as well as the trash. Kaufmann was a slimy little creep whose only concern was staying at the top of the greasy pole - a buckled leftie for Foot but a New Labourite for Blair. It was his sort that brought Labour to where they are today, where getting into power for power's sake was all that mattered.

When people without principles become your MPs, eventually you get a principle free party whose word even the most stupid learn to distrust for good.

[mjw]

Mans not even cold yet ffs.

[dorlomin]

Manchester Gorton was about 60% remain, UKIP only polled about 8% in 2015. This is not UKIPs for the taking.

The Libs got mid 30s in General Elections until 2015 and the coalition. They are the challanger here. The seat does cover the student heavy district of Fallowfield so you can expect a lot of pro Corbyn loyalty from that quarter.

 

Id say Labour to hold it with the Libs a strong second, pushing Labour to within 10%

[WaffenThinMint]

2 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

Manchester Gorton was about 60% remain, UKIP only polled about 8% in 2015. This is not UKIPs for the taking.

The Libs got mid 30s in General Elections until 2015 and the coalition. They are the challanger here. The seat does cover the student heavy district of Fallowfield so you can expect a lot of pro Corbyn loyalty from that quarter.

 

Id say Labour to hold it with the Libs a strong second, pushing Labour to within 10%

I'd say the only actual challengers are the Greens. They finished second & appear to be picking & choosing their targets with more care. Moreover, the eyebrow raising tactics revealed last week where they were bussing in supporters to fight target council seats in by elections suggests they're starting to up their game somewhat. If they choose to use Gorton as a test run of their more professional approach in order to hang on & improve on than second place, could be interesting, although it would take a Paul Nuttall scale omnishambles for Labour to lose this one.

[dorlomin]

4 minutes ago, WaffenThinMint said:

 although it would take a Paul Nuttall scale omnishambles for Labour to lose this one.

Momentum have their eyes very firmly on this seat and with the students are likely to put their candidate in, Sam Wheeler. See how that plays locally.

[sergie's no1 fan]

They just don't get it [emoji23]. Another Tory Lite there by the look of it.

[Fide]

14 minutes ago, sergie's no1 fan said:

They just don't get it . Another Tory Lite there by the look of it.

[Crossbill]

Two by elections yesterday:

 

Cardonald by-election result :

Labour 48.6% (+10.1)
SNP 36.7% (-7.5)
Conservatives 10.3% (-1.7)
Greens 2.7% (+0.2)
Liberal Democrats 1.5% (n/a)
Scottish Libertarians 0.2% (n/a)

 

Fortissat by-election result :

Labour 38.5% (+2.0)
A Better Britain - Unionist 23.3% (+12.2)
SNP 20.6% (-8.4)
Conservatives 11.5% (-1.8)
Independent - Cefferty 5.0% (-5.1)
Greens 0.7% (n/a)
UKIP 0.5% (n/a)

 

I'm starting to come round to the unionists point of view.  Maybe Scotland is too stupid for independence.

[Baxter Parp]

5 minutes ago, Crossbill said:

Two by elections yesterday:

 

Cardonald by-election result :

Labour 48.6% (+10.1)
SNP 36.7% (-7.5)
Conservatives 10.3% (-1.7)
Greens 2.7% (+0.2)
Liberal Democrats 1.5% (n/a)
Scottish Libertarians 0.2% (n/a)

 

Fortissat by-election result :

Labour 38.5% (+2.0)
A Better Britain - Unionist 23.3% (+12.2)
SNP 20.6% (-8.4)
Conservatives 11.5% (-1.8)
Independent - Cefferty 5.0% (-5.1)
Greens 0.7% (n/a)
UKIP 0.5% (n/a)

 

I'm starting to come round to the unionists point of view.  Maybe Scotland is too stupid for independence.

Yes, pretty bad, turnout was woeful too.  I noted some idiot Labour MP/MSP cheering on the far right-wing "A Better Britain - Unionist" party like they were his bezzy mates.

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, Crossbill said:

Two by elections yesterday:

 

Cardonald by-election result :

Labour 48.6% (+10.1)
SNP 36.7% (-7.5)
Conservatives 10.3% (-1.7)
Greens 2.7% (+0.2)
Liberal Democrats 1.5% (n/a)
Scottish Libertarians 0.2% (n/a)

 

Fortissat by-election result :

Labour 38.5% (+2.0)
A Better Britain - Unionist 23.3% (+12.2)
SNP 20.6% (-8.4)
Conservatives 11.5% (-1.8)
Independent - Cefferty 5.0% (-5.1)
Greens 0.7% (n/a)
UKIP 0.5% (n/a)

 

I'm starting to come round to the unionists point of view.  Maybe Scotland is too stupid for independence.

It is the job of the SNP to show folk why they deserve their vote.  That is obviously not happening.

The average drop of about 8% on the SNP share over these two contests is pretty disappointing.

 

[capybara]

It is the job of the SNP to show folk why they deserve their vote.  That is obviously not happening.
The average drop of about 8% on the SNP share over these two contests is pretty disappointing.
 

Yip momentum is a two way thing.

[John Lambies Doos]

It is the job of the SNP to show folk why they deserve their vote.  That is obviously not happening.
The average drop of about 8% on the SNP share over these two contests is pretty disappointing.
 

The Corbyn bounce

[NotThePars]

Plenty of good reading earlier on in this thread.

[Glenconner]

4 hours ago, Crossbill said:

Two by elections yesterday:

 

Cardonald by-election result :

Labour 48.6% (+10.1)
SNP 36.7% (-7.5)
Conservatives 10.3% (-1.7)
Greens 2.7% (+0.2)
Liberal Democrats 1.5% (n/a)
Scottish Libertarians 0.2% (n/a)

 

Fortissat by-election result :

Labour 38.5% (+2.0)
A Better Britain - Unionist 23.3% (+12.2)
SNP 20.6% (-8.4)
Conservatives 11.5% (-1.8)
Independent - Cefferty 5.0% (-5.1)
Greens 0.7% (n/a)
UKIP 0.5% (n/a)

 

I'm starting to come round to the unionists point of view.  Maybe Scotland is too stupid for independence.

Tory bounce seems to be over.

[Colkitto]

SNP vote is not coming out to vote in elections. 23% turnout in Cardonald ffs!. 

Maybe we need to start talking about Independence again! 

 

[zidane's child]

1 hour ago, Colkitto said:

SNP vote is not coming out to vote in elections. 23% turnout in Cardonald ffs!. 

Maybe we need to start talking about Independence again! 

 

Would it be fair to say the SNP resurgence from 3-4 years ago was down to the Cameron Tory government and they're stance on austerity?

Corbyn's anti austerity message seemed to cut through in the last election

[LongTimeLurker]

Think a lot of hardcore Leavers have left the SNP bandwagon since the SNP adopted an independence to stay in the EU posture (while before they would have been hearing that independence meant being forced to leave it) and hardcore Remainers haven't joined in anything like the same numbers. I guess Shotts would feature prominently as being the kind of place where A Better Britain - Unionist candidate could beat the SNP into third place given Harthill would probably be the epicentre on that.