Majority

[HomelandsOur]

So we all know that the SNP are going to win the most votes and seats, but what people are forgetting is that AMS is designed to avoid majorities. Is the SNP likely to get their majority again (could be crucial in event of brexit) and if they don't, is a coalition with the greens going to be viable?

Hopefully this is just pre-polling day jitters.

[Kyle]

They'll get the majority I'd think. They'll probably win enough constituencies to be over the line before taking the list into account (they'll get list seats in the South and probably the highlands too, and they may pinch 1 or 2 others as well).

 

I think it would be a shock if they don't get a majority tbh.

[lionel hutz]

So we all know that the SNP are going to win the most votes and seats, but what people are forgetting is that AMS is designed to avoid majorities. Is the SNP likely to get their majority again (could be crucial in event of brexit) and if they don't, is a coalition with the greens going to be viable?

Hopefully this is just pre-polling day jitters.

The SNP are on course to win anything from 70-80 seats, 65 is needed for a majority.

Can't see there being a coalition.

[Mr Rational]

It's certainly not going to be the massacre that folk were predicting a few months back. We are obviously going to be the largest party and that's the only prediction anyone can make at this point.

[John Lambies Doos]

Yes. They will get majority

[Crossbill]

AMS is NOT designed to prevent a majority - it is designed to prevent a majority when not supported by a majority of voters.  The system is not quite properly representative, as there are more FPTP constituency seats than list seats, but it is not bad at dividing seats proportionally based on the number of votes.

 

The reason it is not properly proportional is that Labour tried to rig the system to favour themselves - they did not anticipate their crash in support, so built in more FPTP seats so that they would always get an advantage.  This advantage now works for the SNP instead.  I actually think it would be worthwhile correcting this imbalance as it would make tactical voting on the list (based on the assumption that a majority can be gained on the constituency vote alone)impossible.  No more arguments about who you should give your second vote to!

 

In this election, the SNP seem likely to get about 50% of the vote, so a majority is a realistic representation of the electorates wishes (compare with Westminster where the Conservatives have a majority with only 37% of the vote). 

 

I think a coalition with the Greens would work if necessary.  The nightmare scenario is a Labour-Conservative-Lib Dem coalition.  God, just imagine.

[Kyle]

Is everyone shitting themselves again?

 

The SNP's support hasn't dropped below 49% in any poll I've seen and I think 43% is their low mark on the list. If they get anywhere near that, they'll waltz their way to another majority.

 

I think they'll poll around the 50% mark for the constituencies and maybe 45 or 46% on the list.

[Wee Willie]

AMS is NOT designed to prevent a majority - it is designed to prevent a majority when not supported by a majority of voters.  The system is not quite properly representative, as there are more FPTP constituency seats than list seats, but it is not bad at dividing seats proportionally based on the number of votes.

 

The reason it is not properly proportional is that Labour tried to rig the system to favour themselves - they did not anticipate their crash in support, so built in more FPTP seats so that they would always get an advantage.  This advantage now works for the SNP instead.  I actually think it would be worthwhile correcting this imbalance as it would make tactical voting on the list (based on the assumption that a majority can be gained on the constituency vote alone)impossible.  No more arguments about who you should give your second vote to!

 

In this election, the SNP seem likely to get about 50% of the vote, so a majority is a realistic representation of the electorates wishes (compare with Westminster where the Conservatives have a majority with only 37% of the vote). 

 

I think a coalition with the Greens would work if necessary.  The nightmare scenario is a Labour-Conservative-Lib Dem coalition.  God, just imagine.

I cannae imagine that.

Who would lead.....and who would follow?

[kevthedee]

SNP majority easy

[welshbairn]

7/1 for No overall majority. Having a wee punt on that, think the turnout will be low and have a hunch the pollsters have overestimated the snp vote.

[invergowrie arab]

Is everyone shitting themselves again?

The SNP's support hasn't dropped below 49% in any poll I've seen and I think 43% is their low mark on the list. If they get anywhere near that, they'll waltz their way to another majority.

I think they'll poll around the 50% mark for the constituencies and maybe 45 or 46% on the list.

Only slight panic for me is on turnout although I suspect it will still be comfortably higher than 2011.

[John Lambies Doos]

7/1 for No overall majority. Having a wee punt on that, think the turnout will be low and have a hunch the pollsters have overestimated the snp vote.

Nah. Underestimated it if anything

[Kyle]

7/1 for No overall majority. Having a wee punt on that, think the turnout will be low and have a hunch the pollsters have overestimated the snp vote.

 

Like they have done so many times in the past.

[John Lambies Doos]

I hope for a snp majority and the torys to beat labour

[Wee Willie]

I hope for a snp majority and the torys to beat labour

One sleep tae go then we will find out

[John Lambies Doos]

Is there a constituency exit poll?

[Owsley]

Sturgeon's popularity is well ahead of Salmond's and the SNP got an amazing result in 2011. Since then we've had the aftermath of the referendum and all the promises and lies exposed, a stunning near clean sweep in the GE, the saving of the steel jobs, Carmichael, media bias becoming obvious to even the sceptical; this list could go on and on.

Only worry is lazy voters but then there will likely be many disillusioned voters of other parties who won't leave their sofas. 74 seats is my forecast. Labour cling on as opposition by one seat. Greens fourth. No ukip.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The biggest danger is apathy. This has to be the most low key election in a long time.

[invergowrie arab]

The biggest danger is apathy. This has to be the most low key election in a long time.

Turnout at the general election in Scotland was 71%, the last Holyrood election was 50%. There is no way it will drop back down to that again.

[Mr Heliums]

The SNP will be the largest party but even if they didn't get a majority, I'd assume they'd form a minority government as they did in 2007.