Cream Cheese Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 1 hour ago, Bishop Briggs said: The markets had expected Britain to vote to Remain in the EU. They are not perfect forecasters of events and their recent track record has been abysmal. The banksters' and hedge funds' pollsters even screwed up their forecasts on referendum day. Fair point. I reckon things will turn out even worse than they're forecasting. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 On 12/07/2016 at 10:17, Ross. said: We live in interesting times. Perhaps Div is a lizard person and we have more influence here than we were previously credited for... And who can forget that time when the Brazilian real dropped 2% against a trade weighted basked of currencies after a particularly heated exchange on Steelmen online 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 5 hours ago, Ross. said: Who said they were? Most expect a cut in UK interest rates. I'd say it's more likely to happen than not. FWIW I predicted during the Independence debate that England would vote to take Scotland out of the EU if Scotland voted to remain in the UK. Shame HB's not around anymore, a huge punt against his predictions would make us very rich. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 Aberdeen Asset Management lifts its suspension on withdrawals. My uninformed guess is the drop in the pound plus the drop on their valuation means extracting money will be a big loss in value. So many more will hope that the pound and property markets are more likely to recover over the next couple of years than to suffer bigger falls. Others will disagree. Also private property sales have apparently dropped by about 36%. Will this just be temporary? Some will jump into the market hoping for bargains others will be wary. The "mini-panic" phase seems over and now its just waiting for all the dull data like jobs, PMI, consumer sentiment, inflation and so on to try to gauge what Brexit has done\ where the world economy is leading us. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 14, 2016 Share Posted July 14, 2016 http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/97a10864-490b-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab.html#axzz4EQIR5X83 Quote High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/97a10864-490b-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab.html#ixzz4EQIiB3L0 The slowdown in world trade has been much worse than previously reported, with global trade volumes plateauing over the past 18 months amid a rise in protectionism, according to a new report. The analysis illustrates why business leaders such as GE’s Jeff Immelt are anxious about trade and the world economy as politicians such as US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump rail against “globalism” and promise to erect new barriers to commerce. High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/97a10864-490b-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab.html#ixzz4EQIdx1Ng Policymakers and economists have grown increasingly concerned about a slowdown in global trade growth. But according to the latest report by Global Trade Alert, which monitors protectionism around the world, that growth has disappeared altogether with the volume of goods traded around the world stagnant since January 2015. Such a prolonged period of no growth is rare in economic history, said Simon Evenett, professor of international trade and economic development at Switzerland’s University of St Gallen and the report’s lead author. “It really doesn’t happen very much outside of recessions,” he said. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 15, 2016 Share Posted July 15, 2016 Lowcost Holidays demise blamed on Brexit vote Construction output slumps in May Quote On an annual basis construction output fell 1.9% compared with May 2015. The most recent figures from the ONS showed UK economic growth slowed to 0.4% in the three months to the end of March. The first estimate of second quarter economic growth is due on 27 July. 'Concerns' Financial firm Markit, which has given an estimate of construction activity in June, said the weakness had continued into last month. It said the industry suffered its worst contraction in seven years in June as concern grew about the EU referendum. Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist at IHS Markit said the figures showed the construction sector was "hit appreciably by increased caution among clients as the run-up to the referendum on EU membership magnified UK and global economic uncertainties". Cheers Boris and mates. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 On 11/07/2016 at 18:16, topcat(The most tip top) said: Well half of that theory is now in the process of being tested. Sterling had dropped about 1% this morning and then after you posted rallied back to roughly where it was yesterday This could have been down to the markets reading your post but, with all due respect, it probably had more to do with the new Prime Minister being sorted out. If the US electorate shoots itself in both feet by electing Trump then the UK's decision to only shoot itself in one foot will look pretty smart by comparison so that bit makes sense but theoretically some of that risk is factored in to the market already so if Hilary starts to look safe then the Dollar should rise further. It would only do that if the feet were black, surely? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McSpreader Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 Lowcost Holidays had a bad business model. That's why they failed. A good business model copes with adverse market conditions. Brexit will be so good for Scotland and the UK. Good times are-a coming, boys! -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted July 16, 2016 Share Posted July 16, 2016 Did you study on the Bishops courses? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Aberdeen Asset Management lifts its suspension on withdrawals. My uninformed guess is the drop in the pound plus the drop on their valuation means extracting money will be a big loss in value. So many more will hope that the pound and property markets are more likely to recover over the next couple of years than to suffer bigger falls. Others will disagree. Also private property sales have apparently dropped by about 36%. Will this just be temporary? Some will jump into the market hoping for bargains others will be wary. The "mini-panic" phase seems over and now its just waiting for all the dull data like jobs, PMI, consumer sentiment, inflation and so on to try to gauge what Brexit has done\ where the world economy is leading us. As well as waiting for data we're also waiting for clues as to what form Brexit will take. It's pretty clear that Brexit Voters aren't going to get all the things they were promised so the big question is which promises to break.For example how far we sacrifice access to markets for the sake of immigration control or vice versa.We may yet end up with a deal that's not functionally significantly different from the existing deal or may end up with the racist wonderland for morons that millions seemingly thought they were voting for.This game isn't over 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyderspaceman Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 28 minutes ago, topcat(The most tip top) said: As well as waiting for data we're also waiting for clues as to what form Brexit will take.It's pretty clear that Brexit Voters aren't going to get all the things they were promised so the big question is which promises to break. For example how far we sacrifice access to markets for the sake of immigration control or vice versa. We may yet end up with a deal that's not functionally significantly different from the existing deal or may end up with the racist wonderland for morons that millions seemingly thought they were voting for. This game isn't over So if they don't get what they voted for, the whole thing should be declared null and void and the status quo should prevail. That seems a very equitable solution to me. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 So if they don't get what they voted for, the whole thing should be declared null and void and the status quo should prevail. That seems a very equitable solution to me. If politicians making promises they can't keep becomes grounds for annulling results of votes then the whole of Western Democracy is on shaky ground.More likely would be a second referendum asking the public to back a particular form Brexit as opposed to the general principle of it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 1 hour ago, topcat(The most tip top) said: If politicians making promises they can't keep becomes grounds for annulling results of votes then the whole of Western Democracy is on shaky ground. More likely would be a second referendum asking the public to back a particular form Brexit as opposed to the general principle of it. I totally agree with the first paragraph. I totally disagree with a second referendum. Countries should get what they vote for in a Referendum, and I include Scotland as a country - not as a region of the UK England. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 I totally agree with the first paragraph. I totally disagree with a second referendum. Countries should get what they vote for in a Referendum, and I include Scotland as a country - not as a region of the UK England. A worthy principle that becomes awkward to implement in practice if the people vote to have their cake and also eat it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
topcat(The most tip top) Posted July 17, 2016 Share Posted July 17, 2016 Simplified diagram of the options facing the UK Government l 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted July 20, 2016 Share Posted July 20, 2016 Back below 1.30 versus CHF 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-36812583 Quote Markit's purchasing managers' index for July has come in at 47.7, the lowest reading since April 2009. That's down from the June figure of 52.1. The report is based on a survey of purchasing executives at 600 manufacturing companies and more than 650 services firms. Quote Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: July saw a dramatic deterioration in the economy, with business activity slumping at the fastest rate since the height of the global financial crisis in early-2009. The downturn, whether manifesting itself in order book cancellations, a lack of new orders or the postponement or halting of projects, was most commonly attributed in one way or another to ‘Brexit’. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross. Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 (edited) Lloyds announce they will punt 3000 more jobs than previously confirmed, with Brexit being one of the reasons: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36911896 Edited July 28, 2016 by Ross. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strichener Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 7 hours ago, Ross. said: Lloyds announce they will punt 3000 more jobs than previously confirmed, with Brexit being one of the reasons: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36911896 How can Brexit be a reason when the bank confirmed that the decision was made before the vote? Quote The bank attributed the cuts to changes in people's banking habits, and the effects of interest rates remaining low for the foreseeable future. The bank confirmed that the decision to make further cuts was taken before the EU referendum on 23 June. It also announced that profits more than doubled. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cream Cheese Posted July 28, 2016 Share Posted July 28, 2016 38 minutes ago, strichener said: How can Brexit be a reason when the bank confirmed that the decision was made before the vote? It also announced that profits more than doubled. 3000 more jobs than previously confirmed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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