Cerberus Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 It has unearthed some utterly backward c***s in the UK. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvilScotsman Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said: It's not a tiny Most British national opinion polls have samples of around 1000. It's a reasonable sample size and the margin of error will be around 3 to 4%. Learn a bit about polling before making more silly statements like that. " when it comes to the UK government’s Brexit deal Scottish voters have largely similar expectations to voters across Britain as a whole. " Every question (I infer, since they haven't seen fit to publish the actual questions as far as I can see) is about Britain, not Scotland, and is based on the assumption that Scotland will still be part of the UK when it leaves the EU. Also, one or two things have happened since polling concluded (2nd March), which one might expect to influence those results..... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 I wouldn't give a f**k about this story if it wasn't for the collective maggot thrashing that Britnats have been doing about how the Spanish are going to slap down Scotland. The absolute seethe that this will cause from those very people is going to be delicious. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, EvilScotsman said: " when it comes to the UK government’s Brexit deal Scottish voters have largely similar expectations to voters across Britain as a whole. " Every question (I infer, since they haven't seen fit to publish the actual questions as far as I can see) is about Britain, not Scotland, and is based on the assumption that Scotland will still be part of the UK when it leaves the EU. Also, one or two things have happened since polling concluded (2nd March), which one might expect to influence those results..... The IndyRef White Paper had the assumption that the independence negotiations would take 18 months. Based upon that optimistic assumption and Sturgeon's recent statements, Scottish independence day will be after Brexit day. All polls are snapshots of opinions at that time. Opinions tend to change slowly so it's still an interesting article four weeks after polling concluded. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williemillersmoustache Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Except the opinion that you are a tedious, probably a bit racist, bodies under the patio type c**t. That is always a rock solid perpetual constant. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williemillersmoustache Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 36 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said: It's not a tiny Most British national opinion polls have samples of around 1000. It's a reasonable sample size and the margin of error will be around 3 to 4%. Learn a bit about polling before making more silly statements like that. OK, below average sample size. But the sudden crowdwank over any kind of negative indy polls is just hilarious. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, williemillersmoustache said: OK, below average sample size. But the sudden crowdwank over any kind of negative indy polls is just hilarious. It was Prof Curtice who put in the negative indy spin. It detracted from the real substance of the article - what Scots want in the Brexit deal. Around 35% of voters who backed the SNP in 2015 also voted to Leave the EU. They need a better advocate in the SNP than Jim Sillars. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williemillersmoustache Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, Bishop Briggs said: It was Prof Curtice who put in the negative indy spin. It detracted from the real substance of the article - what Scots want in the Brexit deal. Around 35% of voters who backed the SNP in 2015 also voted to Leave the EU. They need a better advocate in the SNP than Jim Sillars. No, there is wide dispute of that figure. Some SNP voters probably did vote brexit, no way to know how many and it is utter drivel to put any figure on it at all. Could be just Jim Sillars. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, williemillersmoustache said: No, there is wide dispute of that figure. Some SNP voters probably did vote brexit, no way to know how many and it is utter drivel to put any figure on it at all. Could be just Jim Sillars. That figure is valid. Lord Ashcroft's Brexit poll was held at the same time as the referendum - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/. The tables are here - http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/How-the-UK-voted-Full-tables-1.pdf. Note that the fieldwork was 21 to 23rd June and Scottish sample size was over 1100, i.e. similar to a normal Scottish opinion poll. Ashcroft uses the top polling companies. Table 2 on page 7 - 176 SNP voters for Leave (34%), 343 for Remain. The margin of error is 3%. Those figures are very credible and the best available. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
williemillersmoustache Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Lord Ashcroft, f**k off pal. Nobody can take you seriously, give up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alan Stubbs Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 hour ago, Bishop Briggs said: Clause relates to post-Brexit deals. All the Gibraltar issues will be covered in the main Brexit deal. Large parts of Spain depend on British tourist and ex-pat spending. British holiday bookings are up around 40% compared to 18 months ago and hotel companies raised their prices by around a quarter. Spain would be crazy to use the EU to pick a needless fight over Gibraltar. It's amusing that the Brexiter default position on everything still seems to revolve around how everyone needs the UK and will be getting in line to beg for the blue red and white pound. The ink is barely dry on Theresa's letter and Europe has merked Britain about five times already. The EU is going to run rings around this Government and the absolute delusion of everyone involved on "our" side will be one of the reasons for that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 10 minutes ago, Bishop Briggs said: Table 2 on page 7 - 176 SNP voters for Leave (34%), 343 for Remain. The margin of error is 3% How did you calculate a margin of error of 3% with a sample size that small? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 5 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said: Lord Ashcroft, f**k off pal. Nobody can take you seriously, give up. The old "shoot the messenger" nonsense yet again! Lord Ashcroft uses the top polling companies. The media takes his polls seriously because they cover areas that other polls don't. If you bother to read the article and the poll, they have a lot of useful ammunition for Remain supporters. Only a biased idiot or moronic cretin would dismiss such a huge poll. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Willie Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, Bishop Briggs said: The old "shoot the messenger" nonsense yet again! Lord Ashcroft uses the top polling companies. The media takes his polls seriously because they cover areas that other polls don't. If you bother to read the article and the poll, they have a lot of useful ammunition for Remain supporters. Only a biased idiot or moronic cretin would dismiss such a huge poll. Then why is it nae bugger ever asks me for my opinion? Any time I walk doon the high street all they c**ts wi' clipboards or tablets f**k off until I'm past. Sno fair. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 1 minute ago, welshbairn said: How did you calculate a margin of error of 3% with a sample size that small? Do you seriously think there were only the 519 SNP voters in the Scottish sample? The sample size in Scotland was 1102, similar to a national Scottish or British opinion poll. The margin of error would therefore be the same as an typical opinion poll. Got it? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, Bishop Briggs said: Do you seriously think there were only the 519 SNP voters in the Scottish sample? The sample size in Scotland was 1102, similar to a national Scottish or British opinion poll. The margin of error would therefore be the same as an typical opinion poll. Got it? There were only 519 in the SNP sample. That's what counts. When you break down a sample into smaller categories the margin of error rises. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, Wee Willie said: Then why is it nae bugger ever asks me for my opinion? Any time I walk doon the high street all they c**ts wi' clipboards or tablets f**k off until I'm past. Sno fair. Have you bothered to register with any of the online pollsters? Political polling companies use online respondents or telephone polls. Clipboard interviewers are usually working for commercial clients. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, welshbairn said: There were only 519 in the SNP sample. That's what counts. When you break down a sample into smaller categories the margin of error rises. Not on a two option(Leave/Remain) question. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Just now, Bishop Briggs said: Not on a two option(Leave/Remain) question. So if you broke the sample down to a category with one of the overall group included you'd still have a margin of error of 3%? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 (edited) 9 minutes ago, welshbairn said: So if you broke the sample down to a category with one of the overall group included you'd still have a margin of error of 3%? Based on the number of national SNP voters, that sample size would give you a margin of error of around 4%. So the minimum % of SNP voters who voted Leave would be 30%. The maximum would be 38%, same as the national result. Edited March 31, 2017 by Bishop Briggs 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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