Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

1 hour ago, Detournement said:

When they get into government they will open negotiations with Brussels on a better deal.

 

So just to be clear here; you are telling us that the Labour Party which has always relied on a quota of Scottish MP's to form the UK Government will still succeed in that endeavour if that quota continues to run at the present level ?

[welshbairn]

The Labour leadership are going to have to change tack if this YouGov poll is accurate.

Quote

A YouGov poll commissioned by the People’s Vote campaign showed nearly 90 per cent of Labour Party members want another referendum, three-quarters would like to see a commitment in Labour’s manifesto – but critically, it shows that 93 per cent would vote to stay in the EU if they were given a chance.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-brexit-corbyn-motion-referendum-peoples-vote-final-say-a8551736.html

[dorlomin]

6 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The Labour leadership are going to have to change tack if this YouGov poll is accurate.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-brexit-corbyn-motion-referendum-peoples-vote-final-say-a8551736.html

Why would they need too. They have their fake referendum up for vote in conference and its just a matter of ensuring the tories do not fall before March and they get their life long desire for Brexit. 

[btb]

25 minutes ago, zidane's child said:

A GE will not be called as the Tories will fear:

a) They'll lose the whole thing and they'll be opposition

b) Labour adds to its 260 seats and further decreases the Tory seat count

Any talk of a GE is just hopeful from Labour sadly.

It doesn't mean they shouldn't be trying to force one.

[zidane's child]

Just now, btb said:

It doesn't mean they shouldn't be trying to force one.

Yeah but in essence, the FTPA 2011 also makes that difficult.

[Detournement]

15 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

So just to be clear here; you are telling us that the Labour Party which has always relied on a quota of Scottish MP's to form the UK Government will still succeed in that endeavour if that quota continues to run at the present level ?

Labour have 7 target seats in Scotland where they need less than 1000 votes. I would expect them to take them all.

There are another 16 seats that require less than a 5% swing. The SNP will need to seriously improve their messaging on their purpose at Westminster to hold onto them.

 

[Colkitto]

10 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Labour have 7 target seats in Scotland where they need less than 1000 votes. I would expect them to take them all.

There are another 16 seats that require less than a 5% swing. The SNP will need to seriously improve their messaging on their purpose at Westminster to hold onto them.

 

Why do you expect them to take all these seats?  No polls showing they would do such a thing. 

The SNP will not run another disastrous campaign like the last one in which their supporters stayed at home.

I fully expect the SNP to take back all the seats from Labour that they lost. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Labour have 7 target seats in Scotland where they need less than 1000 votes. I would expect them to take them all.
There are another 16 seats that require less than a 5% swing. The SNP will need to seriously improve their messaging on their purpose at Westminster to hold onto them.
 

That is about as accurate as your Northern Rock predictions.

[Enigma]

When they get into government they will open negotiations with Brussels on a better deal.

 

 

So would they accept free movement of labour or would the put a hard border between NI and ROI or down the Irish Sea?

[Detournement]

33 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Why do you expect them to take all these seats?  No polls showing they would do such a thing. 

The SNP will not run another disastrous campaign like the last one in which their supporters stayed at home.

I fully expect the SNP to take back all the seats from Labour that they lost. 

Due to tactical voting.

A lot of people in the central belt thought that voting Tory was the best way to unseat the SNP. All it takes is a bit of that anti SNP vote to switch to Labour and they take the seats.

[zidane's child]

3 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Due to tactical voting.

A lot of people in the central belt thought that voting Tory was the best way to unseat the SNP. All it takes is a bit of that anti SNP vote to switch to Labour and they take the seats.

I don't have the latest polls at hand but I'm sure they had the SNP as a +6 gain for the next election!

[Colkitto]

Just now, Detournement said:

Due to tactical voting.

A lot of people in the central belt thought that voting Tory was the best way to unseat the SNP. All it takes is a bit of that anti SNP vote to switch to Labour and they take the seats.

In the country overall the SNP lost about 10,000 votes per seat compared to 2015. When Nicola decided not to make independence an issue in 2017, the pro indy voters just stayed at home.

Any future election will be run on indyref2 and Brexit. Those voters will come back out again. We may not get a repeat of the 2015 tsunami, but we'll take back a lot of seats.

I'd expect Labour will hold possibly 1 seat.  

[dorlomin]

9 minutes ago, zidane's child said:

I don't have the latest polls at hand but I'm sure they had the SNP as a +6 gain for the next election!

Its old but they do look strong for the moment. 

 

2017 the votes were

SNP 36.9%

CON 28.6%

LAB 27.1%

LD 6.8%

 

How that would break into seats would take a lot of sifting. Fair to say you would expect CON>SNP and LAB>SNP to be the big moves in terms of seats. 

Edited September 24, 2018 by dorlomin

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, Colkitto said:

In the country overall the SNP lost about 10,000 votes per seat compared to 2015. When Nicola decided not to make independence an issue in 2017, the pro indy voters just stayed at home.

Any future election will be run on indyref2 and Brexit. Those voters will come back out again. We may not get a repeat of the 2015 tsunami, but we'll take back a lot of seats.

I'd expect Labour will hold possibly 1 seat.  

How can the SNP run on Indyref2 in 2021 or 2022 when they won't call it now? And it's not a WM issue. And there will possibly be a Holyrood election first where if there isn't a majority for independence it's off the menu for five years. The SNP don't have any credible message about how their Westminster MPs can improve the lives of Scots. The next election is going to be about ending austerity which means a Labour government.

[btb]

7 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

In the country overall the SNP lost about 10,000 votes per seat compared to 2015. When Nicola decided not to make independence an issue in 2017, the pro indy voters just stayed at home.

Any future election will be run on indyref2 and Brexit. Those voters will come back out again. We may not get a repeat of the 2015 tsunami, but we'll take back a lot of seats.

I'd expect Labour will hold possibly 1 seat.  

We wont but we I expect us to do better than 2017.

[Colkitto]

3 minutes ago, Detournement said:

How can the SNP run on Indyref2 in 2021 or 2022 when they won't call it now? And it's not a WM issue. And there will possibly be a Holyrood election first where if there isn't a majority for independence it's off the menu for five years. The SNP don't have any credible message about how their Westminster MPs can improve the lives of Scots. The next election is going to be about ending austerity which means a Labour government.

I was mainly talking about if an election was held soon, as in the next 12 months. 

If the WM election does come after the Holyrood election then yes, you would need to see what the outcome was first.

[Colkitto]

5 minutes ago, btb said:

We wont but we I expect us to do better than 2017.

The clamour for indyref2 has already started. If an election was held in the next 6-12 months, you couldn't avoid making it an issue in a WM election

[Detournement]

20 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

The clamour for indyref2 has already started. If an election was held in the next 6-12 months, you couldn't avoid making it an issue in a WM election

Surely the thing to do is table legislation at Holyrood?

The SNP conference will make their intentions more obvious.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

4 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Labour saying their preference is for a GE to deal with Brexit.

Fine, what is Labour’s policy on Brexit in the event of an election being called?  At the moment it is as clear as mud.

 

You're better than this, GD. Labour's policy, as it has been since the UK decided to self-harm, is to attempt to negotiate* an agreement which does the least harm to the majority of people (let's call them "the workers").

FWIW, I reckon the first conversation will go something like this:

Keir Starmer: "Look, those cúnts have gone now - any chance of an extension to A50 so we can talk like grown-ups?"

EU: "Not a problem."

*Tories and Brexit supporters please note - this negotiation would probably involve talking to people, not shouting at them, and I am fairly sure the use of images such as the White Cliffs, Churchill and Spitfires would be kept to a minimum. 

[Granny Danger]

7 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

You're better than this, GD. Labour's policy, as it has been since the UK decided to self-harm, is to attempt to negotiate* an agreement which does the least harm to the majority of people (let's call them "the workers").

FWIW, I reckon the first conversation will go something like this:

Keir Starmer: "Look, those cúnts have gone now - any chance of an extension to A50 so we can talk like grown-ups?"

EU: "Not a problem."

*Tories and Brexit supporters please note - this negotiation would probably involve talking to people, not shouting at them, and I am fairly sure the use of images such as the White Cliffs, Churchill and Spitfires would be kept to a minimum. 

Sorry pal, that a rose-tinted-glasses view.

Corbyn’s ‘Jobs Friendly Brexit’ is meaningless waffle.  The best thing for doing the least harm to most people is staying in the EU and McDonald and McCluskey are ruling that out whilst Corbyn is avoiding the question.

I reckon if that position is held many Labour activists, including Corbyn supporters, will be pissed off.

If Brexit goes ahead then the people who will suffer worst will be the most vulnerable; that’s the folk that those on the left are supposed to protect.