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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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9 minutes ago, Kyle said:

My writing isn't any better to be fair.

Mine neither. The bookie just glances at my slip, copies it and hands me the copy, which I even I have difficulty in deciphering. Not sure how they keep a track on their potential liabilities and whether the odds need changing unless their number and writing recognition software is superhuman.

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3 hours ago, Sunrise said:

Bad candidates may not be enough - the Lib Dems will surely win Edinburgh West back even with poor candidate Christine Jardine though. 

Never even realised that bitch was standing here. She'll win it as well. QLFMjQU.png

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Never even realised that bitch was standing here. She'll win it as well. QLFMjQU.png

She'll win it if she keeps getting unopposed time on Reporting Scotland which goes against broadcast rules.
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For the first time, I'm ashamed to be British. UDI now, please.

On British membership of the Eurovision Song Contest:

Remain: 44%
Leave: 56%

(via @YouGov / 08 - 09 May)

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.@LordAshcroft’s new model with 3,054 in Scotland (d/k removed):

SNP 40.8% (43)
CON 30.3% (12)
LAB 16.7% (1)
LIB 7.4% (3)
GRN 3%
UKIP 1.4%

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"The Ashcroft Model combines the results of a 40,000-sample survey (the biggest I have ever conducted) with detailed census data. This shows us the likelihood that particular kinds of people – in terms of their age, sex, occupation, level of education, and so on – will have a particular opinion. It uses information from people of the same demographic background but who are from substantially different geographic areas to help calculate these probabilities. Crucially, the model then allows us to extrapolate this information to individual constituencies according to the profile of their population. On this basis we make estimates including whether each seat is “likely” or “leaning” to one party, or is “too close to call”; views on the best Prime Minister; and the level of personal economic optimism in each constituency – together with the potential implications for seat numbers for each party and the new government’s majority. The direction of each seat – and the implied range of potential gains and losses – are presented on the basis of three different scenarios: if turnout in June is as it was in 2015, if it matches that of the EU referendum, and if people turn out according to their own stated likelihood to do so."

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/05/election-2017-ashcroft-model/#more-15204

Predicts the possibility of the Tories winning just over 400 seats.

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4 minutes ago, Sooky said:

.@LordAshcroft’s new model with 3,054 in Scotland (d/k removed):

SNP 40.8% (43)
CON 30.3% (12)
LAB 16.7% (1)
LIB 7.4% (3)
GRN 3%
UKIP 1.4%

I simply don't believe that there are 3 Tory voters for every 4 SNP voters in Scotland.

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