Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Bring Your Own Socks]

Given that Sturgeon and Salmond have said this election is nothing to do with independence then why would it impact on your vote. The mandate was in the 2016 Holyrood elections. This is a election between May and Corbyn at WM surely. Or was what the SNP leadership said disingenuous?

It's not about Corbyn and May. It's about Tories v the rest. This "union" we hear of already has separate leading parties in the four distinct nations. The only one where The Cons are prominent in is England.

Since GE2015 the Labour Party have largely spent their time sniping at each other. Those against Corbyn, career politicians, offered a future akin to what Milliband and Brown had already failed at. A reddish purple hue. Corbyn has realised that's playing straight at the Tory strengths and has wheeled out a manifesto that in practise is ridiculously unachievable but has cynical mimicked the Cons in their tactics; tell the people what they want to hear. Forgiveness rather than permission. And it's working. Back to red. And if he manages to keep the majority narrow those in his back benches who think he's wrong will quickly get in step, pull off the ties and revive their careers.

And a strong Labour\SNP\Plaid\Green working relationship will encourage dissident Tories in Westminster, who are pro-EU, to push against the Whip as the inevitable failures unfurl when the incompetent Tory negotiators get hampered by the Brussels version of filibustering, a tactic that May is admired for ironically.

Plenty to play for yet.

[LongTimeLurker]

12 hours ago, Glenconner said:

Good to see your still around LLL, thought you'd jumped in the North Channel after Arlene did that stunt at Ibrox.

Do you still think I'm pals with Willie Frazer? The point I was making on Arlene at Ibrox is that most people who vote SNP in Scotland are exactly the type of people that would vote DUP if they had grown up in NI instead given the shared obsession with identity politics where the DUP and SNP are concerned even if the preferred coloured piece of cloth is different and there is less bible thumping going on in the latter case John Mason notwithstanding. Good to see you have finally come out of the closet where your junior football allegiances are concerned.

[LongTimeLurker]

2 hours ago, Kyle said:

Yougov (18/19 May)

English voting intentions (Change since 20/21 Apr)

CON 47% (-5%)
LAB 37% (+11%)
LD 10% (-3%)
UKIP 4% (-2%)
GRN 2% (-1%)

this is much better. Still not great, but that's the first time you can see a direct link between the Tory drop and labour rise in England. 

¡Ay, Caramba! What was Therea May thinking when she decided to announce policies that went after pensioners financially when pensioners form her core demographic? This election could finally start to get interesting over the next week or so.

[Glenconner]

1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Do you still think I'm pals with Willie Frazer? The point I was making on Arlene at Ibrox is that most people who vote SNP in Scotland are exactly the type of people that would vote DUP if they had grown up in NI instead given the shared obsession with identity politics where the DUP and SNP are concerned even if the preferred coloured piece of cloth is different and there is less bible thumping going on in the latter case John Mason notwithstanding. Good to see you have finally come out of the closet where your junior football allegiances are concerned.

Bit unfair on John Mason. Last i heard he was still living up a close in Barlanark rather than a Big Donald (faither of the nation) style million quid house at the bus stop in Cleveden Rd. As for voters in Scotland, as you well know, it's a lot more broad churched when it comes to voting for political parties or even Indy v more of the same. Wee Ruth advisors might buy into the Ulsterisation of Scottish politics but there's far too many Jim Murphyites around to keep it semi same. For every Tory Orangeman supporting the Union there's a wee Catholic Labout voting pensioner doing the same thing. Larkhall ain't never a Larne.

Oops Donegal sorry Glasgow Celtic just scored.

History in politics and football's a funny thing.

[LongTimeLurker]

Meanwhile, Aberdeen have rattled six past Partick Thistle quicker than you can say unusual betting patterns. Agree that Scotland isn't turning into a replica of Ulster and having been to both I think Larkhall would probably benefit from having some of the coastal scenery that Larne has, but what has changed in recent times is that class politics has weakened in Scotland and national identity and differing forms of tub thumping populism that revolve around it has become more prominent.

[DrewDon]

Some people have a bizarre obsession with attributing the SNP's recent rise primarily to identity politics, rather than valence issues - most likely because it feeds into a sneering stereotype about SNP voters not being intelligent enough to vote rationally. 

Funny how it often tends to be from Scottish Tory voters, many of whom are guilty of basing their own post-referendum allegiances largely along identity lines and using their vote as a proxy to express their opposition to Scottish independence. 

[Glenconner]

3 minutes ago, DrewDon said:

Some people have a bizarre obsession with attributing the SNP's recent rise primarily to identity politics, rather than valence issues - most likely because it feeds into a sneering stereotype about SNP voters not being intelligent enough to vote rationally. 

Funny how it often tends to be from Scottish Tory voters, many of whom are guilty of basing their own post-referendum allegiances largely along identity lines and using their vote as a proxy to express their opposition to Scottish independence. 

Suppose some folk need try and understand how and why things happen even in politics. Or they just like to muddy the waters. You can bet every Brit Nat blood and soil type in Scotland will be voting Tory come next month.

[sophia]

55 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

most people who vote SNP in Scotland are exactly the type of people that would vote DUP if they had grown up in NI 

nope

[NotThePars]

Not just "some" SNP voters but "MOST" as well. Because apparently you can win round most of the country on nationalism and nothing else for over a decade.

[DrewDon]

It is a typical middle-class trope. How can you explain the rise of the SNP in Scotland? Well, the working-class patently isn't intelligent enough to vote rationally, so they must be voting with their heart rather than their head; as a result, you have this baseless crowing about the rise of 'identity politics' from Tories (like it hasn't been a thing in politics for, well, pretty much forever) - and some Labour people - in Scotland despite there being very little concrete evidence that a rise in nationalist sentiment is responsible for the recent electoral growth of the SNP. But it is much easier to conclude that nobody sensible or rational would vote for them. More often than not, this sort of analysis is merely a smokescreen for social prejudice and stereotyping.

These same people will very rarely - if ever - complain about 'identity politics' producing a big vote for the Tories in largely middle-class communities and constituencies, though. Or unionist parties in Scotland now being brazenly appealing to voters' national identities and constitutional positions like never before. Funny thing, that.

[dorlomin]

4 hours ago, Kyle said:

Yougov (18/19 May)

English voting intentions (Change since 20/21 Apr)

CON 47% (-5%)
LAB 37% (+11%)
LD 10% (-3%)
UKIP 4% (-2%)
GRN 2% (-1%)

this is much better. Still not great, but that's the first time you can see a direct link between the Tory drop and labour rise in England. 

The death of UKIP. Labour just picking up some of their voters a little later than the Tories.

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

....and differing forms of tub thumping populism that revolve around it has become more prominent...

Does it really have to be spelled out that this applied to the Tories current hard Brexit Union Jack waving posture as well as the SNP's Saltire waving Indyref2? Combined those two nationalist populisms could attract up to 75% of the electorate this time around. Twenty years back when devolution was being established the dominant axis in Scottish politics was the Lab-LibDem coalition at Holyrood and most mainstream political commentaters thought that was going to last for a long time.

[EdgarusQPFC]

Well, unsurprisingly the tory manifesto is usual nasty party bollocks. Now they wanna be able to control what we can do online and ban porn.... Bring on indy ref 2

[Wee Willie]

2 hours ago, sophia said:

nope

ditto

[Glenconner]

10 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Does it really have to be spelled out that this applied to the Tories current hard Brexit Union Jack waving posture as well as the SNP's Saltire waving Indyref2? Combined those two nationalist populisms could attract up to 75% of the electorate this time around. Twenty years back when devolution was being established the dominant axis in Scottish politics was the Lab-LibDem coalition at Holyrood and most mainstream political commentaters thought that was going to last for a long time.

Would still be around yet had one or two things not happened.

Faither of the Nation drops dead and SLAB end up doing the footie thing and go through a manager sorry leader a year. 

Certain folk probably from the right and left (me included) figure out the only way to ditch the Blairites (Scottish Branch) was to vote in numbers for somebody else in this case the SNP. Very few unionists like to admit now they voted the SNP into office. But stats don't lie. The SNP vote came from somewhere. 

[Bedford White]

Some interesting details from latest set of polls. Labour polling 10% ahead in London and the north, with a poll out today in Wales that it seems will place Labour ahead. On the back of this Labour have announced it will scrap university fees with immediate effect (Sept) and it will also apply to those currently studying at University. Last day of voter registration today. Expect a surge. Mike Smithson from the political betting site is now selling tory seats on spread betting. Corbyn has been massively underestimated. He afterall has campaigned and won elections since the 70's. 

[Suspect Device]

I'd laugh my tits off if Corbyn won or even brought about a hung parliament.

Don't think it will happen but it would be hilarious.

[Crùbag]

17 hours ago, dorlomin said:

The death of UKIP. Labour just picking up some of their voters a little later than the Tories.

 

 

Interesting days.

If Corbyn can keep things to a narrow defeat or cause a hung-Parly then May will have 'lost' her gamble. Corbyn arguably not doing worse than Miliband or Brown.

Same poll had SNP with a 16% lead on circa 200 sub-sample. Ties in with recent polls.

Edited May 22, 2017 by Crùbag

[mizfit]

If it's looking like a hung parliament I wonder if corbyn would start discussing a possible deal with the SNP then...

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, Bedford White said:

....Corbyn has been massively underestimated. He afterall has campaigned and won elections since the 70's. 

...in an ultra-safe Labour seat. His most intelligent move in electoral terms if not in terms of its long term consequences for the country was to say that Labour won't block Brexit, because that pried loose about 8% of traditional Labour voters from UKIP getting him up into the mid-30s. Now if he pushes hard on the pensioner issue and can deal with the IRA/Hamas/Trident stuff to the satisfaction of his core base if not the Radio 4 listening Tunbrige Wells brigade he has a real shot at making this election interesting, because of how Theresa May has pushed so hard right.

Edited May 22, 2017 by LongTimeLurker