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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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Ruth Davidson hurtling around Perthshire for photo opportunities yesterday.

Still no idea what Ian Duncan's other policies are and we're 2 weeks from the election.

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19 hours ago, Kejan said:

Lib Dems ahead in their polling in NE Fife - 35% Lib 30% SNP 20% Tory

To be fair, I'm ahead in my polling in my house, even though my wife and kids think I'm a tit*

 

 

*I'm only joking, they think I'm utterly tremendous

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Ive long been convinced that large parts of the electorate are indeed sheep like.Basically if you can entice a few into your field eventually the other ones follow just to be the same as the rest.That for me is what the SNP need to keep an eye on.Corbyns field looks enticing to a few and Davidsons is similar.Create the perception you are on a roll and get the gate open and it can become self fullfilling once the media start picking up on it.

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Ive long been convinced that large parts of the electorate are indeed sheep like.Basically if you can entice a few into your field eventually the other ones follow just to be the same as the rest.That for me is what the SNP need to keep an eye on.Corbyns field looks enticing to a few and Davidsons is similar.Create the perception you are on a roll and get the gate open and it can become self fullfilling once the media start picking up on it.



^this.
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Some performance from Nicola today after a thumping opening from Pete Wishart and Angus Robertson. The only party leader who is consistent with the messaging. A natural born leader. We are very lucky.

An impressive cast alongside and the hall packed to the rafters. Was talking to an aulder fella from Dumfries. Says the young farmers are with us and Mundell's been posted missing for 2 weeks. 

Set phasers to Malky!

 

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17 minutes ago, Bring Your Own Socks said:

Mob-handed Tory protest in Perth today across form the Concert Hall...

IMG_0333.thumb.JPG.88ed769a5a5da062fbebc58027e04fe3.JPG

 

 

They certainly had the male, white, 55-75 demographic well represented.

Also nice to see their entire manifesto presented in such a concise format.

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Tories still losing ground. SNP vote holding up.

Quote

Meanwhile, we have a new GB-wide poll from ICM...

Conservatives 45% (-1)
Labour 33% (+1)
Liberal Democrats 8% (n/c)
UKIP 5% (n/c)
SNP 4% (n/c)
Greens 3% (+1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (n/c)

The Scottish subsample is : SNP 43%, Conservatives 26%, Labour 22%.  That's reassuringly normal after Survation served up the SNP's worst subsample of the campaign last night (albeit based on a particularly tiny number of respondents).

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/ice-cold-icm-poll-sends-chill-down.html

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IMG_1496179458.046945.thumb.jpg.119903bdc16e9d506ba9d4b93a243f2a.jpg

 

YouGov have just plucked a very random set of seat predictions out. National polling would surely have to see Labour at least even for this to occur? And their most favourable poll of the campaign has them 5% behind. I'd be very keen to know which 30 seats they see Labour gaining, so hopefully they publish a bit more in depth. But nice to know that Northern Ireland are getting the 10 seats back that they mysteriously lost last parliament...

 

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This projection looks pretty odd. The front page of the times says that this is the same model used which predicted a narrow leave win, and it's been based on constituency interviews with 50,000 people. 

 

Would be pretty hilarious if that panned out, but I can't see it. 

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IMG_1496179821.503910.thumb.jpg.cbcd535ace1dd67c5f97265256e7d491.jpg

Although this was their seat projection AFTER polls had closed in 2015...


In fairness Sooky. That wasn't actually an exit poll from you gov. It was a final poll published that evening but had not asked how people voted rather who they would vote for. (Fieldwork previous 2 days). It was also in line with every other polls from final days
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This projection looks pretty odd. The front page of the times says that this is the same model used which predicted a narrow leave win, and it's been based on constituency interviews with 50,000 people. 

 

Would be pretty hilarious if that panned out, but I can't see it. 

 

There would be no real realistic workable majority from that (from either side), would there? What a mess that would be!

 

Guess it lets the Tories go all "coalition of chaos" x100.

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