Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[JMDP]

Good to see political heavyweights oaksoft and H_B giving their hot take on things. I'm sure they will be bang on and not utterly batshit, attention seeking nonsense. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

H_ B

 

[emoji23]

 

 

[BawWatchin]

10 hours ago, oaksoft said:

It's actually known as "groupthink" and it absolutely is not normal on any level.

It leads to bad decisions and bad implementations because people are afraid to challenge properly.

Is it not for the opposition to challenge?

[NotThePars]

It’s almost like there hasn’t been a fortnight or so of quite public infighting among SNP members.

[BawWatchin]

2 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Yes, but that's not much help if a party with a full majority is passing poor legislation thanks to group-think within its own party.

We saw this with some of the SNP legislation when they had a Holyrood majority.

There is no good which can come from groupthink.

Really? So why was Scotlands economic performance at it's peak when the SNP had a majority? Everything was going swimmingly until the coalition nonsense.

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I think Yes should wait until it is regularly polling at least 60% before going to the polls.

That might take 15 to 20 years, yes.

It really depends on whether you want to risk a probably permanent second defeat or are so desperate to get a Yes win that you'd be willing to put up with potentially over a decade of effort to challenge or overturn an ultra narrow win - exactly as we are seeing with Brexit.

I doubt there will ever be a better opportunity with the shambles in Westminster and Brexit. There would be no problem having another go in 15 to 20 years if the answer is No.

[Ira Gaines]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

Who put you in charge of which posters can post opinions on political issues?

Either contribute to the discussion or wind your neck in.

[Colkitto]

28 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I think Yes should wait until it is regularly polling at least 60% before going to the polls.

That might take 15 to 20 years, yes.

It really depends on whether you want to risk a probably permanent second defeat or are so desperate to get a Yes win that you'd be willing to put up with potentially over a decade of effort to challenge or overturn an ultra narrow win - exactly as we are seeing with Brexit.

Don't think you can make a call on that just based on polls. Remember Brexit was called when Remain was ahead and indyref1 No was miles ahead when that was called.

You look at the political landscape and you make a judgement whilst obviously glancing at where you are in the polls. 

If you're confident enough then <5% of the winning line should be worth the gamble. 

Calling indyref2 right now is absolutely the right thing to do. Getting over 50% against a back drop of Brexit and a calamitous Tory Government and a very weak opposition is worth the gamble. Add to that a Tory Government telling Scotland you can't have independence should be enough for a convincing win.

 

 

 

Edited May 23, 2019 by Colkitto

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Who put you in charge of which posters can post opinions on political issues?
Either contribute to the discussion or wind your neck in.

No one is telling you that you can't post, simply that what you DO post is largely utter drivel.

[BawWatchin]

5 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I am talking about bad legislation being passed because of groupthink in a majority government.

What are you talking about?

I'm talking about a majority government that performed rather successfully. More so than they are now as a minority.

[Blootoon87]

It won't be the SNP's call to make. How do you persuade Westminster to give us the power to call a referendum when polling still hasn't consistently even hit a majority Yes?

You think Westminster is more likely to allow us to have a referendum if polls are consistently in favour of independence?!

[welshbairn]

It won't be the SNP's call to make. How do you persuade Westminster to give us the power to call a referendum when polling still hasn't consistently even hit a majority Yes?

If Boris takes over and Parliament blocks a hard brexit after his futile attempt at renegotiating, and is forced to call a Euro ref 2, the Brexiters will be delighted to see us go first.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It won't be the SNP's call to make. How do you persuade Westminster to give us the power to call a referendum when polling still hasn't consistently even hit a majority Yes?

All it takes is for the SNP and Greens to agree to go for an extraordinary Scottish General Election.

It wouldn't get the necessary 2/3 majority but if Sturgeon then resigned and new FM could not be agreed within 28 days then it would happen.

Go in on an IndyRef2 ticket and secure a majority (SNP and Greens) playing the Westminster won't let us vote card.

[Kuro]

3 hours ago, welshbairn said:

3 hours ago, oaksoft said:

It won't be the SNP's call to make. How do you persuade Westminster to give us the power to call a referendum when polling still hasn't consistently even hit a majority Yes?

If Boris takes over and Parliament blocks a hard brexit after his futile attempt at renegotiating, and is forced to call a Euro ref 2, the Brexiters will be delighted to see us go first.

Doesn't matter, the UK govt will not agree to a referendum for the simple reason they know they'd probably lose it and to lose the oil is unthinkable. 

That's the long and short of it, its illegal, immoral, anti democratic and outrageous, but there's no chance whatsoever under any circumstances at all the UK govt will agree to indyref2.  Its out of the question.  How scotgov react to that is the issue now.

[JMDP]

5 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Who put you in charge of which posters can post opinions on political issues?

Either contribute to the discussion or wind your neck in.

You've been utterly embarrassed on a variety of issues on here ranging from benefits to education and everywhere else in between. Even serial loser H_B had his way with you all over the forum.

You're an attention seeking moron with nothing to contribute. I won't be deciding what posters can contribute, but I will be pointing out you're a waste of blood and organs.

[welshbairn]

50 minutes ago, Kuro said:

Doesn't matter, the UK govt will not agree to a referendum for the simple reason they know they'd probably lose it and to lose the oil is unthinkable. 

That's the long and short of it, its illegal, immoral, anti democratic and outrageous, but there's no chance whatsoever under any circumstances at all the UK govt will agree to indyref2.  Its out of the question.  How scotgov react to that is the issue now.

The Bexiteers don't give a f**k about the economy and oil isn't a huge deal to the rUK anyway. They'd happily give it up to get out of the EU.

[Kuro]

17 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The Bexiteers don't give a f**k about the economy and oil isn't a huge deal to the rUK anyway. They'd happily give it up to get out of the EU.

That's simply untrue.  Its massive for the UK economy, and no UK govt of any shade will ever countenance giving it up ever for any price at all no matter what under any circumstances.  Even if we become independent they'll try to keep it.  You're just denying reality.  They just found another 100 years worth too.

[John Lambies Doos]

You've been utterly embarrassed on a variety of issues on here ranging from benefits to education and everywhere else in between. Even serial loser H_B had his way with you all over the forum.
You're an attention seeking moron with nothing to contribute. I won't be deciding what posters can contribute, but I will be pointing out you're a waste of blood and organs.

Harsh but fair

[welshbairn]

16 minutes ago, Kuro said:

That's simply untrue.  Its massive for the UK economy, and no UK govt of any shade will ever countenance giving it up ever for any price at all no matter what under any circumstances.  Even if we become independent they'll try to keep it.  You're just denying reality.  They just found another 100 years worth too.

The UK has the 5th or 6th economy in the world. If this graphic is remotely accurate oil isn't a big part of it. And oil is going to be less significant as cars move to electric and industries find alternatives. Russia is 12th by the way.

Edited May 23, 2019 by welshbairn

[Kuro]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The UK has the 5th or 6th economy in the world. If this graphic is remotely accurate oil isn't a big part of it. And oil is going to be less significant as cars move to electric and industries find alternatives.

Sigh.  Oil represents typically 1.5% of UK GDP.  The 2008 financial crash saw a temporary drop of GDP of around 2% for 3-5 years.  It was the most devastating economic event in decades and ushered in a decade or more of austerity and arguably Brexit. 

Losing oil would represent a drop of 1.5% for 50-100 years.  I can tell you're not stupid.  Therefore I have no idea why you pursue this utterly moronic line of shite. 

The UK has virtually nothing of any value, its all services, oil is one of the very few tangible commodities it has and by far the largest.  Oil is finite and used for thousands of things not just cars, basic economics dictates the price will only rise long term.

You're just lying, and you know it too.