Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Gordon EF]

Survey Monkey's about half a step up from just asking folk at the bar who they're voting for.

[NotThePars]

Survey Monkey's about half a step up from just asking folk at the bar who they're voting for.

And less valid than the Tryfield method of polling.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Survey Monkey is what my Nat 5/Higher pupils would use - it's fine for a school assignment but is completely meaningless in terms of statistical analysis. They didn't even say how many were surveyed - if they were using a free Survey Monkey account only 100 people could be surveyed.

[Blue-Toon]

11 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Survey Monkey is what my Nat 5/Higher pupils would use - it's fine for a school assignment but is completely meaningless in terms of statistical analysis. They didn't even say how many were surveyed - if they were using a free Survey Monkey account only 100 people could be surveyed.

Pollsters carried out online interviews with 1,970 Scots liable to vote. Our results exclude those who did not answer or were undecided.

It was carried out by SurveyMonkey, the world’s No1 survey platform, between May 19 and 25.

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/

[John Lambies Doos]

Pollsters carried out online interviews with 1,970 Scots liable to vote. Our results exclude those who did not answer or were undecided.
It was carried out by SurveyMonkey, the world’s No1 survey platform, between May 19 and 25.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/

In fairness... what chance do they have against the UK media

[sons superhero]

1 hour ago, Blue-Toon said:

Pollsters carried out online interviews with 1,970 Scots liable to vote. Our results exclude those who did not answer or were undecided.

It was carried out by SurveyMonkey, the world’s No1 survey platform, between May 19 and 25.

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/

How many of the 1,970 actually answered?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Pollsters carried out online interviews with 1,970 Scots liable to vote. Our results exclude those who did not answer or were undecided.
It was carried out by SurveyMonkey, the world’s No1 survey platform, between May 19 and 25.
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/1069407/poll-snp-mp-at-risk-three-year-low-general-election/

No weighting or balance to the survey. Any c**t could have responded and multiple times if they deleted their history/cookies.

[git-intae-thum]

Tories getting 29% in Scotland 

Sorry nawbags, but you getting slightly over half of that figure will be a bit more likely.

[Kyle]

The Courier are running a story which has the SNP losing Perth, but retaining North East Fife and gaining Edinburgh south and Orkney and Shetland. 

This apparently stems from Ashcroft polls. The Tories have a 51% chance of winning in Perth. I'll see if I can find the article. I can't find the polling data anywhere. 

[Sooky]

The Courier are running a story which has the SNP losing Perth, but retaining North East Fife and gaining Edinburgh south and Orkney and Shetland. 
This apparently stems from Ashcroft polls. The Tories have a 51% chance of winning in Perth. I'll see if I can find the article. I can't find the polling data anywhere. 

The Ashcroft model is a bit weird though, it has the SNP as likely to win Orkney & Shetland. If they couldn't win it in 2015, I'd suggest it's even more difficult now. Though I'd probably agree that Perth is basically a 50/50 atm. He also says the Lib Dems would come third in North East Fife.

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

2 minutes ago, Sooky said:

The Ashcroft model is a bit weird though, it has the SNP as likely to win Orkney & Shetland. If they couldn't win it in 2015, I'd suggest it's even more difficult now. Though I'd probably agree that Perth is basically a 50/50 atm. He also says the Lib Dems would come third in North East Fife.

 

Maybe the electorate have decided that Carmichael is an untrustworthy c**t since then.

[mizfit]

The Courier are running a story which has the SNP losing Perth, but retaining North East Fife and gaining Edinburgh south and Orkney and Shetland. 
This apparently stems from Ashcroft polls. The Tories have a 51% chance of winning in Perth. I'll see if I can find the article. I can't find the polling data anywhere. 

The courier are desperate for the SNP to lose Perth.

[lichtgilphead]

23 minutes ago, Sooky said:

 

The Ashcroft model is a bit weird though, it has the SNP as likely to win Orkney & Shetland. If they couldn't win it in 2015, I'd suggest it's even more difficult now. Though I'd probably agree that Perth is basically a 50/50 atm. He also says the Lib Dems would come third in North East Fife.

 

Aye. The only way I could see the Lib-Dems losing Orkney & Shetland would be if the candidate made up a lie about the First Minister, leaked it to the press then denied it had anything to do with him.

That would never ever happen though, so I'm sure Mr Carmichaeliar is safe

 

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

The right-wing press...presumably in collusion with the Tory party... are upping the personal attacks on Corbyn and Sturgeon.

All mention of policies has gone out the window as panic sets in. The plan is to talk about the IRA and Scottish independence as much as possible.

Edited May 29, 2017 by Bob Mahelp

[Loondave1]

The right-wing press...presumably in collusion with the Tory party... are upping the personal attacks on Corbyn and Sturgeon.
All mention of policies has gone out the window as panic sets in. The plan is to talk about the IRA and Scottish independence as much as possible.

Agree apart from the Murdoch's Scottish SUN which is still burning a candle for the SNP.Why could that be...

[Kejan]

11 hours ago, mizfit said:

 

The courier are desperate for the SNP to lose Perth.

 

The Courier 

Is there still the wedding pictures on a Monday? 

The Ashcroft polls look all over the place. SNP to win Orkney/Shetland? You never know, but surely not. No idea how liked/disliked Carmichael or the SNP are ; but they both returned stinking 60 plus majorities in Holyrood for the Lib Dems. 

Perth seems to be of concern though. See Nicola was tweeting about helping out with a mass-canvas after the manifesto launch on Tuesday for members. Seems wild though - Wishart has a majority of 10,000 and the Tories polled 32% last time around. Is it basically Perth will mostly vote SNP and the rural areas Tory? 

I think Robertson to hold his seat looks a good bet in Moray. He's high-profile, and I think he'll get votes from non-SNP voters too to keep the (potentially) three-jobs Dougie oot.  

 

Edited May 29, 2017 by Kejan

[mizfit]

2 minutes ago, Kejan said:

The Courier 

Is there still the wedding pictures on a Monday? 

The Ashcroft polls look all over the place. SNP to win Orkney/Shetland? You never know, but surely not. No idea how liked/disliked Carmichael or the SNP are ; but they both returned stinking 60 plus majorities in Holyrood for the Lib Dems. 

Perth seems to be of concern though. See Nicola was tweeting about helping out with a mass-canvas after the manifesto launch on Tuesday for members. Seems wild though - Wishart has a majority of 10,000 and the Tories polled 32% last time around. Is it basically Perth will mostly vote SNP and the rural areas Tory? 

I think Robertson to hold his seat looks a good bet in Moray. He's high-profile, and I think he'll get votes from non-SNP voters too to keep the (potentially) three-jobs Dougie oot.  

 

 

I certainly think there is a bit of concern over losing the council to the Tories/LibDem/Labour/Independent coalition, that factored in with the Tory candidate being someone who genuinely has experience and might take most of the votes of Alyth and Blairgowrie (Local lad). 

Looking at the last campaign, even if the same number voted SNP and all the others combined to vote Tory, Wishart would still have a majority. 

[harry94]

Probably just a bit of expectation management but it's worth looking out for the UK wide polls over the next few days.

 

[Kejan]

1 minute ago, harry94 said:

Probably just a bit of expectation management but it's worth looking out for the UK wide polls over the next few days.

 

Even if it's just one poll. Mad, but fantastic!

Corbyn to be even in with a chance of winning when Tories had a 25% lead about three weeks ago! 

Theresa May  

[Kejan]

19 minutes ago, mizfit said:

 

I certainly think there is a bit of concern over losing the council to the Tories/LibDem/Labour/Independent coalition, that factored in with the Tory candidate being someone who genuinely has experience and might take most of the votes of Alyth and Blairgowrie (Local lad). 

Looking at the last campaign, even if the same number voted SNP and all the others combined to vote Tory, Wishart would still have a majority. 

Good point about the combined vote.

Just had a look at Wiki - turn out was 75% So even with that, they'll have to be a huge swing from SNP to Tory too.