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General Election Speculation


NotThePars

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I'm not arguing with what you are saying but if over 50% of those who voted in 2017 had voted to remain the year before it would be startling at just how the Remain vote collapsed in the General Election. Lets face it both the Conservatives and the Labour Party were promising to abide by the Referendum result and to leave. The Lib Dems were the main Remain party and they got their arses booted all over the place. And the SNP, who did their usual whinging about everything without actually doing anything, lost a slurry of votes and seats to the Conservatives in Scotland.
 
 


Probably because no one was seriously talking about stopping Brexit in 2017. The Brexit debate at that point was hard Brexit Tory v soft Brexit Labour.
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1 hour ago, harry94 said:

Having a search of it though, it's not the first time this has been mooted. This Independent article in 2017 discusses the prospect of May calling an election and the mechanisms she has to do it with the suggestion that she may run into the problem of Labour rejecting it and would consider scrapping FTPA. Constitutional law professor Robert Hazell at UCL is quoted and discusses an alternative way of introducing a one clause bill to do it.

I think its something they could try, but it would likely face legal challenges in courts and so on. It would be a test between two pieces of legislation. Off the top of my head the FTPA repealed the previous legislation that explained when elections happen so if it came before the courts it could be a whole can of warms over who and when elections can be held. 

The idea of it was to protect the junior partner in a coalition that the senior one could not just pull the rug when polling and another small party fancied it. 

Our "constitution" is a clusterfuckingmess. 

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acob Rees-Mogg also confirmed Parliament would not be suspended - or prorogued - until the bill to block a no-deal Brexit has been passed into law

Strategy now seems to be to get the Benn-Burt Bill into law asap then try to get a October 15 election out of Labour, thus having a majority to repeal the bill, though would parliament sit before the 19th? I strongly doubt it. So it would perhaps be to ignore court rulings on asking for an extension of A50 until October 31st or when they could have an emergency session of parliament to repeal the bill. The idea they need No Deal only as a negotiating position is nonsense. 

 

Also as I have said before, the civil service would be in purdah for the election. No policies could not be announced and no action could be taken that could be seen as being impartial. So any preparations for No Deal would be off the table. 

That is how kamikaze this government is. 

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9 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Another vote for one on Monday

Hopefully the speaker will follow the rules and say they can't bring back an identical motion that has been defeated in the same parliament. So they'd have to wait till October, which would mean a November election at the earliest.

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1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

Hopefully the speaker will follow the rules and say they can't bring back an identical motion that has been defeated in the same parliament. So they'd have to wait till October, which would mean a November election at the earliest.

 

He's generally a stickler for the rules, there would need to be some changes to the motion before it could be brought before the house again.

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Corbyn has played this relatively cleverly in the last few days; hopefully he continues to do so.

The only people that will be upset by him not dancing to Johnson’s tune over the timing of a GE are those who won’t vote for him anyway.

People who are likely to support Labour are not going to change their minds or get upset about ‘chicken talk’.

If the U.K. is still in Europe after 31 October Johnson will look like he’s failed and been unable to deliver on his promise.

I hope the SNP are on board with this strategy too, though they have a different perspective.

 

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7 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Corbyn has played this relatively cleverly in the last few days; hopefully he continues to do so.

The only people that will be upset by him not dancing to Johnson’s tune over the timing of a GE are those who won’t vote for him anyway.

People who are likely to support Labour are not going to change their minds or get upset about ‘chicken talk’.

If the U.K. is still in Europe after 31 October Johnson will look like he’s failed and been unable to deliver on his promise.

I hope the SNP are on board with this strategy too, though they have a different perspective.

 

 

His performance in the House yesterday was the best I've ever seen from him.

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1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

Corbyn has played this relatively cleverly in the last few days; hopefully he continues to do so.

The only people that will be upset by him not dancing to Johnson’s tune over the timing of a GE are those who won’t vote for him anyway.

On Monday he promised to support an general election no matter what. On Wednesday he seemed to be rallying to the idea to delay an election till after October 31.Today he seems to be behind the idea of going for an early election again (McDonald this morning)

Can you tell me what Labours definitive position on this is?

 

Quote

People who are likely to support Labour are not going to change their minds or get upset about ‘chicken talk’.

Labour needs millions of people who currently do not seem likely to vote Labour to start seeing them as their main choice before we go to the polls. 

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21 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Corbyn has played this relatively cleverly in the last few days; hopefully he continues to do so.

The only people that will be upset by him not dancing to Johnson’s tune over the timing of a GE are those who won’t vote for him anyway.

People who are likely to support Labour are not going to change their minds or get upset about ‘chicken talk’.

If the U.K. is still in Europe after 31 October Johnson will look like he’s failed and been unable to deliver on his promise.

I hope the SNP are on board with this strategy too, though they have a different perspective.

 

Johnson has repeatedly said "No if's no buts, we're out of the EU by 31st October"  If that does not happen then it's total humiliation as he has been saying that since he ran for the leadership.

If he can't force an election then he may endure more humiliation by having to go to the EU and ask for an extension. Will he do it? And what happens if he doesn't? 

If an election happens after 31st October then the Brexit party comes into play. They will take votes of the Tories for sure. Could Labour take advantage with Corbyn getting into No.10 with the help of the SNP? 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Word on the street is Boris would walk before going back to the Eu to ask for an extension so keep delaying him seems to be the obvious choice

He managed to sneak Kinnock's compromise amendment on the bill, so maybe he'll actually try to get a deal with the EU. Anything to keep his job.

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30 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Johnson has repeatedly said "No if's no buts, we're out of the EU by 31st October"  If that does not happen then it's total humiliation as he has been saying that since he ran for the leadership.

If he can't force an election then he may endure more humiliation by having to go to the EU and ask for an extension. Will he do it? And what happens if he doesn't? 

If an election happens after 31st October then the Brexit party comes into play. They will take votes of the Tories for sure. Could Labour take advantage with Corbyn getting into No.10 with the help of the SNP? 

 

 

I disagree. If the UK isn't out by the 31st of October Johnston will point to the oppostion and party rebels and blame them for frustrating all attempts to leave. But withdrawing the whip from the rebels he strengthens his Brexit position and moves all over the ground the Brexit Party stand on so much so I can even see the likes of Widdicombe and Farage back in the party. At the very least I could see a strong pact between the two parties. Its a move to the right but its where there are votes to be had. 

The SNP need to be very careful too. Supporting a weak Marxist, terrorist supporting leader won't play well with some of their own party members or with a proportion of those who have voted SNP in the past

 

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35 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Johnson has repeatedly said "No if's no buts, we're out of the EU by 31st October"  If that does not happen then it's total humiliation as he has been saying that since he ran for the leadership.

If he can't force an election then he may endure more humiliation by having to go to the EU and ask for an extension. Will he do it? And what happens if he doesn't? 

If an election happens after 31st October then the Brexit party comes into play. They will take votes of the Tories for sure. Could Labour take advantage with Corbyn getting into No.10 with the help of the SNP? 

 

 

Yip, pretty much my thinking.

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28 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

I disagree. If the UK isn't out by the 31st of October Johnston will point to the oppostion and party rebels and blame them for frustrating all attempts to leave. But withdrawing the whip from the rebels he strengthens his Brexit position and moves all over the ground the Brexit Party stand on so much so I can even see the likes of Widdicombe and Farage back in the party. At the very least I could see a strong pact between the two parties. Its a move to the right but its where there are votes to be had. 

The SNP need to be very careful too. Supporting a weak Marxist, terrorist supporting leader won't play well with some of their own party members or with a proportion of those who have voted SNP in the past

 

Boris can blame anyone and everyone he wants to, but at the end of the day he staked his whole reputation on being out by 31st October. It won't wash and will be total humiliation.

May tried the blame game too, it won't work on a very frustrated electorate.  The pressure is all on Boris and this week the wheels on the wagon loosened.

The SNP stand for independence. If getting Corbyn into No.10 is what we have to do for indyref2 then no one will complain.

I'm calling it early - Boris won't survive 6 months as PM. If he loses the election it could be the shortest reign ever  

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2 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Boris can blame anyone and everyone he wants to, but at the end of the day he staked his whole reputation on being out by 31st October. It won't wash and will be total humiliation.

May tried the blame game too, it won't work on a very frustrated electorate.  The pressure is all on Boris and this week the wheels on the wagon loosened.

The SNP stand for independence. If getting Corbyn into No.10 is what we have to do for indyref2 then no one will complain.

I'm calling it early - Boris won't survive 6 months as PM. If he loses the election it could be the shortest reign ever  

 

I wouldn't give him beyond October 31st.

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