General Election Speculation

[Colkitto]

Just now, ICTJohnboy said:

 

I wouldn't give him beyond October 31st.

You could well be right.... 

[ICTJohnboy]

1 minute ago, Colkitto said:

You could well be right.... 

 

And surrounded as I am in here NW Englandshire by ignorant Boris supporting c***s, who tell me on a daily basis that he is the only person capable of getting the country out of this horrible EU, I'll be so fucking happy when he does throw in the towel.

He's lost his brother, lost his party, lost the country and totally lost the plot.

[tirso]

2 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

And surrounded as I am in here NW Englandshire by ignorant Boris supporting c***s, who tell me on a daily basis that he is the only person capable of getting the country out of this horrible EU, I'll be so fucking happy when he does throw in the towel.

He's lost his brother, lost his party, lost the country and totally lost the plot.

do you think it's still a majority down there then?

[oneteaminglasgow]

do you think it's still a majority down there then?

Pretty sure he stays in Burnley.

I’ve never been, but it strikes me as the sort of place where the majority of people routinely get furious about “them” getting to use the N word. To hear that it’s gammon central isn’t surprising.

[ICTJohnboy]

Just now, tirso said:

do you think it's still a majority down there then?

 

It's a good question. I'm presently living in a labour heartland area, but also a very pro leave EU area. Many have said they will vote conservative for the first time in their lives, because they think they will deliver on Brexit - any kind of a Brexit.

I haven't got any direct evidence of anyone having changed their mind in this matter, but I'd like to think they must surely be having second thoughts.

[tirso]

1 minute ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

It's a good question. I'm presently living in a labour heartland area, but also a very pro leave EU area. Many have said they will vote conservative for the first time in their lives, because they think they will deliver on Brexit - any kind of a Brexit.

I haven't got any direct evidence of anyone having changed their mind in this matter, but I'd like to think they must surely be having second thoughts.

just shows how strongly people feel, I suppose.  I'm in favour of remain for Scotland but feel ignoring the rest of the UK's leave vote is really not on.  

[Malky3]

21 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Boris can blame anyone and everyone he wants to, but at the end of the day he staked his whole reputation on being out by 31st October. It won't wash and will be total humiliation.

May tried the blame game too, it won't work on a very frustrated electorate.  The pressure is all on Boris and this week the wheels on the wagon loosened.

The SNP stand for independence. If getting Corbyn into No.10 is what we have to do for indyref2 then no one will complain.

I'm calling it early - Boris won't survive 6 months as PM. If he loses the election it could be the shortest reign ever  

Sky are currently claiming Johnson will resign by the 18th of October and if he doesn't there would be a no confidence vote so you aren't really sticking your neck out. The theory is that Johnston won't ask for an extension from the EU and if he has to he'll force Corbyn to do it. 

Why? Well an extension from the EU costs £1Bn per month - £744m when you factor in rebates. That's money wasted if you land up coming out anyway and it won't play out well with the electorate. 

[dorlomin]

16 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

It's a good question. I'm presently living in a labour heartland area, but also a very pro leave EU area. Many have said they will vote conservative for the first time in their lives, because they think they will deliver on Brexit - any kind of a Brexit.

I haven't got any direct evidence of anyone having changed their mind in this matter, but I'd like to think they must surely be having second thoughts.

It shows up in the polling. It is a classic wedge issue, with the Brexit Party being an intermediate step between your life long allegiance and moving to a new party on the wedge issue. It has been a big part of US politics for decdes, pushing the entire South out of the Democrats into the Republicans but also has done the same for NE Republicans etc. Labour has been weakening in the NW over issues around social and cultural identity etc. 

Everything is very fluid at the moment and public sentiment is likely to make some bigish shifts over the next three months. 

edited apologies some text ended up where it should not. 

[dorlomin]

2 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Sky are currently claiming Johnson will resign by the 18th of October and if he doesn't there would be a no confidence vote so you aren't really sticking your neck out.

Chiltern Hundreds? Leader of the Conservative Party or First Lord of the Treasury, if its the later by custom and convention the leader of the opposition is asked to try to form a government? Am I remember that correctly?

[ICTJohnboy]

10 minutes ago, tirso said:

just shows how strongly people feel, I suppose.  I'm in favour of remain for Scotland but feel ignoring the rest of the UK's leave vote is really not on.  

 

I've had so many conversations with several who have assured me they knew what they were voting for, and now claim that No Deal will be absolutely fine. 

It's a kind of a cult thing, I guess,  as they see leaving the EU as winning independence. No doubt Malky3 will say the desire for Scottish Independence is exactly the same thing, and something that has not been properly thought through. 

 

 

[Colkitto]

2 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Sky are currently claiming Johnson will resign by the 18th of October and if he doesn't there would be a no confidence vote so you aren't really sticking your neck out. The theory is that Johnston won't ask for an extension from the EU and if he has to he'll force Corbyn to do it. 

Why? Well an extension from the EU costs £1Bn per month - £744m when you factor in rebates. That's money wasted if you land up coming out anyway and it won't play out well with the electorate. 

If you're calling it for a PM who's just had his first week in parliament then I would say you're calling it early 

Lets face it, he won't ask the EU as it would be too much humiliation. 

Even in May's darkest days you thought this is it, it can't get any worse and here we are - what a farce. The sooner we get out of this Westminster pantomime the better!  

 

[tirso]

4 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

I've had so many conversations with several who have assured me they knew what they were voting for, and now claim that No Deal will be absolutely fine. 

It's a kind of a cult thing, I guess,  as they see leaving the EU as winning independence. No doubt Malky3 will say the desire for Scottish Independence is exactly the same thing, and something that has not been properly thought through. 

 

 

Definitely gives unionist opponents ammunition to give a terrible deal should Scotland ever vote Yes.

If they think they're being ignored, views harden.

[Malky3]

4 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

If you're calling it for a PM who's just had his first week in parliament then I would say you're calling it early 

Lets face it, he won't ask the EU as it would be too much humiliation. 

Even in May's darkest days you thought this is it, it can't get any worse and here we are - what a farce. The sooner we get out of this Westminster pantomime the better!  

I'm not calling anything. I'm reporting what Sky News is saying right now. How based in fact that is would be for anyone to speculate on but it does look like one possible route for Johnston to go down to force a general election. 

[Malky3]

8 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

Chiltern Hundreds? Leader of the Conservative Party or First Lord of the Treasury, if its the later by custom and convention the leader of the opposition is asked to try to form a government? Am I remember that correctly?

I don't know what the technicalities of it are but it's something like that. And if Corbyn refuses saying he doesn't have the confidence of the house then the country would be forced to hold a General Election anyway. 

[Malky3]

4 minutes ago, tirso said:

Definitely gives unionist opponents ammunition to give a terrible deal should Scotland ever vote Yes.

If they think they're being ignored, views harden.

Absolutely. Jim Sillars called this way back when Sturgeon started to call for a second vote on the EU referendum. He said she'd let the "cat out of the bag" and now everyone knew that if Scotland ever did vote for independence you'd simply be able to offer a rotten divorce deal and insist on running another independence referendum. For some reason SNP Voters write off Sillars as an idiot but I think he's the most astute party member they've got. 

If you come away from listening to politicians arguing with each other - which is an absolute head f**k at the moment - I think there is a large proportion of the UK electorate who feel that the result of the EU Referendum has to be carried, we need to leave the EU, and whether it's with a deal or not it just needs to happen soon so the country can move on. The polling seems to back that up. Labour have made absolutely no ground at all, and the Lib Dems are still a long way behind the Conservatives and the big "disrupter" wasn't TIG, it was the Brexit Party who had a great result in the European Elections. 

 

[dorlomin]

10 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

I don't know what the technicalities of it are but it's something like that. And if Corbyn refuses saying he doesn't have the confidence of the house then the country would be forced to hold a General Election anyway. 

In terms of the vote of no confidence others have 14 days to put together a coalition that could win a vote of confidence from the house, this plan has been doing the rounds for a month, anti No Deal tories give that coalition enough votes to become a government and run with various outcomes, mostly extending A50 then either setting an election at a time they feel works for them, or setting a new referendum. 

If Boris submits a vote of no confidence about the best move the opposition could pull is to abstain and force the tories to vote no confidence in themselves, it would reinforce a sense of farce around his administration. 

[Malky3]

3 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

In terms of the vote of no confidence others have 14 days to put together a coalition that could win a vote of no confidence, this plan has been doing the rounds for a month, anti No Deal tories give that coalition enough votes to become a government and run with various outcomes, mostly extending A50 then either setting an election at a time they feel works for them, or setting a new referendum. 

If Boris submits a vote of no confidence about the best move the opposition could pull is to abstain and force the tories to vote no confidence in themselves, it would reinforce a sense of farce around his administration. 

What Sky were talking about was that Parliament has now voted for Boris to ask for an extension. If he refuses to do that then Parliament would have to call a vote of no confidence before the 31st of October on the grounds that Johnston was refusing to do the will of the parliament. 

If no-one asks for an extension the UK would leave the EU without a deal on the 31st of October. 

The last 20 minutes or so on Sky News has seen claims that another motion for a General Election will be tabled on Monday, another Conservative is calling for Theresa May's Withdrawal deal to be put back to the house saying it would have a majority vote in favour of it now and we've got political commentators talking about how Boris Johnston will force Corbyn to ask for the extension and how he will force a general election if he keeps on being denied. 

It's the kind of TV that makes "Yes Prime Minister", "House of Cards" and "The Thick of It" look like tame works of fiction.

 

[Boo Khaki]

26 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

I've had so many conversations with several who have assured me they knew what they were voting for, and now claim that No Deal will be absolutely fine. 

It's a kind of a cult thing, I guess,  as they see leaving the EU as winning independence. No doubt Malky3 will say the desire for Scottish Independence is exactly the same thing, and something that has not been properly thought through. 

 

 

Cognitive Dissonance.

When their lives turn to shit post-Brexit, it'll all be the fault of 'Remoaners' and the dastardly EU for not handing them the fairy tale Brexit they were promised.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

2 hours ago, ICTJohnboy said:

 

His performance in the House yesterday was the best I've ever seen from him.

I'm an unashamed admirer of Corbyn, as many on here know, but I reckon yesterday was more a case of Johnson displaying such an eyewateringly awful caricature of political naivete that I could have looked like Churchill (c.1941) opposite him.

Regardless, the Labour Leadership's long-game strategy is starting to pay off, and I am slightly optimistic.

 

[O'Kelly Isley III]

41 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

Sky are currently claiming Johnson will resign by the 18th of October and if he doesn't there would be a no confidence vote so you aren't really sticking your neck out. The theory is that Johnston won't ask for an extension from the EU and if he has to he'll force Corbyn to do it. 

Why? Well an extension from the EU costs £1Bn per month - £744m when you factor in rebates. That's money wasted if you land up coming out anyway and it won't play out well with the electorate. 

And HS2 is what exactly ?