Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Ross.]

9 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Been posted before, it's very good. Doesn't really explain how they're going to suddenly cut down the infection rate when the hospitals reach peak capacity, ignoring WHO guidelines to ruthlessly carry on containment measures to flatten the curve and add to the delay efforts.

I think they are trying to delay a peak until they have greater capacity for handling it. They just don’t want to come out and say that.

[welshbairn]

17 minutes ago, GordonS said:

They'll shut schools, unis, colleges, pubs and restaurants, advise against travelling to a workplace if it can be avoided; everything people are calling for now.

Different countries have different social structures, cultures, behavioural patterns and capacity in their healthcare systems.

And if that takes a while to turn off the tap the half bottle will be be overflowing, ie. the NHS swamped before severe control measures are put into action. Seems to me that it would be better to follow the example of the likes of Singapore and WHO advice at least until we actually have the capacity to manufacture new ventilators and more people trained to operate them. And maybe even getting closer to antiviral drugs being developed.

Edited March 16, 2020 by welshbairn

[s_dog]

8 hours ago, PauloPerth said:

So you'd go along with the strategy of letting half the population get infected to build up an immunity?  

No, I think we should all have been encouraged to practise social distancing as early as possible and maybe look to South Korea for how to use rigorous testing and isolation for those who test positive. Instead we are not testing many... that just seems crazy. 

59 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

We also don't know what the consequences will be of the lifting of the limits on freedoms in China.

They may well find they have just delayed another spike. We won't know for a few weeks.

Exactly, we also don't really know if people can be re-infected or not, or if this virus is going to end up being a virus that continually comes back and changes slightly every year.

5 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Isn't it the thing that you just can't have a total and comprehensive quarantine of an entire population like that?

even if 80% of the population could stay inside their homes, you'll need people providing essential services. Food needs delivered, health/police/fire service etc, the electricity network needs to keep going.

So you'll still see some small levels of transmission of the virus. Maybe only a couple of hundred people have it by the time the quarantine ends. Then, when everyone re-emerges, it'll just run riot again.

This is what I mean about not being able to have a complete lockdown. As well as the things Gordon EF has already listed, what about refuse collection, child care for those that still have to work, all the people who require care at home (home cares for the elderly, support workers for those with learning disabilities), maintenance workers for roads, lighting, sewerage, etc, etc, etc.

[highlandcowden]

32 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said:

45 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

Because it’s impossible to lock everyone away for a month. 

Not if they bring in the army.

thatll be the absolutely massive british army,aye?

[Jacksgranda]

7 minutes ago, Florentine_Pogen said:

Over-70s asked to 'stay at home' should get more family contact, not less, says Scottish health chief

Echoing a point made by Grant Shapps in his Today interview this morning (see 9.20am), Prof Jason Leitch, the Scottish government’s national clinical director, told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland today that the government advice to the over-70s, which is due soon, would not include telling them to cut off all contact with others. They should have more family contact, not less, he said.

And, even though this has been characterised as people being asked to stay at home, he said that people would not have to stay at home all the time: He explained:

We will almost certainly, as a four-country UK, we will move to a position in the next few weeks where we will ask those groups [the over-70s and those with pre-existing conditions] to not stay at home in the social isolation way that we are telling the symptomatic to do so, but to reduce their social contact.

It might be mosques, it might be churches, it might be bingo ... and pubs [that people have to avoid]. What we are not suggesting, unlike those with symptoms, is that those people would cut off family contact and not be able to receive visitors.

In fact, quite the opposite, we expect family contact to increase in that group so that those people will be looked after. The last thing that we want is four months of loneliness.

They are not going to be asked to stay at home, they are going to be asked to reduce social contact and to be careful and to use common sense.

There has been a lot of confusion about the ‘stay at home’ advice because in interviews about the proposal yesterday, Matt Hancock, the health secretary, and people interviewing him referred to staying at home as self-isolating. Some people use the phrase in this way, but the term has also been used to apply to a much stricter, no-contact regime meant to be followed by people with coronavirus.

If 80% of the population get it we'll be self isolating so more contact won't happen, surely?

[Guest Moomintroll]

Another great interview with Jason Leitch on GMS there. Apparently he has also just rinsed Piers Morgan on the telly.
In classic Scottish style, the next item was the travel news, where the first reported issue was sheep on the road  in Aberdeen. Business as usual.

Didn't see it myself but heard him reference it on the BBC News Channel, sounds like the odious slug was doing his usual I know best act before Leitch enquired where his Masters Degree on this highly specialised subject matter was, good man.

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Ross. said:

I think they are trying to delay a peak until they have greater capacity for handling it. They just don’t want to come out and say that.

If that was so they'd still be trying to identify carriers and their contacts. They've given up on that part, which is inevitable at some point but very early compared to other countries.

[Florentine_Pogen]

2 minutes ago, highlandcowden said:

thatll be the absolutely massive british army,aye?

Don't tell them, Pike.......

[highlandcowden]

1 hour ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Well, another Monday, another load of guesswork and headless-chicken impersonating at HMPPS.

1. Prison Officers can't exactly work from home.

2. There arent enough of them anyway.

3. There are no facilities within our overcrowded jails for offenders to self-isolate.

4. Once any virus gets into a prison, it goes round like wildfire.

5. We're fucked, basically. BUT we've got some wipes for the prisoner phones.

feel your pain,mate-ive been asking questions about contingencies for the past week,its apparent there are pretty much none and itll be a case of "wing it" when the time comes

[FrankChickens1]

2 minutes ago, highlandcowden said:

thatll be the absolutely massive british army,aye?

Well it won two world wars

so, in DAFCs eyes its the best ever. I don't think you're taking enough of a red white and blue approach to this Virus thing highland

[Jacksgranda]

2 minutes ago, FrankChickens1 said:

Well it won two world wars

so, in DAFCs eyes its the best ever. I don't think you're taking enough of a red white and blue approach to this Virus thing highland

Talking about the war - how are the Russians getting on with this?

[Jeremiah Cole]

1 hour ago, staggy1929 said:

Aye I got that one wrong fair enough...

To be fair, I thought the same as you at the time

[RandomGuy.]

41 minutes ago, JTS98 said:

Aye, that might be it.

There may be something in the hope that hot and humid weather helps to contain this. That said, Malaysia has seen a sudden spike so maybe not.

Waiting game, really.

You need to get your head around the fact that these "spikes" aren't real time figures, nor are they comprehensive. 

The figures are skewed by the fact not everyone with the virus is getting tested, and the fact that, with symptoms not showing for up to 5 days, you're almost always at least one week behind.

No idea why people are putting so much into the figures, the real time ones would be much higher.

[Guest JTS98]

1 minute ago, RandomGuy. said:

You need to get your head around the fact that these "spikes" aren't real time figures, nor are they comprehensive. 

The figures are skewed by the fact not everyone with the virus is getting tested, and the fact that, with symptoms not showing for up to 5 days, you're almost always at least one week behind.

No idea why people are putting so much into the figures, the real time ones would be much higher.

I know. I've said that since about page 2 of this thread.

I used the term spike to refer to hidden infections suddenly becoming unhidden. I thought that was obvious.

[Dee Man]

2 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

You need to get your head around the fact that these "spikes" aren't real time figures, nor are they comprehensive. 

The figures are skewed by the fact not everyone with the virus is getting tested, and the fact that, with symptoms not showing for up to 5 days, you're almost always at least one week behind.

No idea why people are putting so much into the figures, the real time ones would be much higher.

O/T but did you have a honeymoon planned and did you get to go on it?

[RandomGuy.]

1 minute ago, JTS98 said:

I know. I've said that since about page 2 of this thread.

I used the term spike to refer to hidden infections suddenly becoming unhidden. I thought that was obvious.

I'm just frustrated at the amount of folk who are effectively fear mongering at the moment by talking about the figures rising every day, tbh, apologies if that's not you.

It doesnt help anyone and causing more issues as seen by this moronic panic buying of toilet roll.

[RandomGuy.]

Just now, Dee Man said:

O/T but did you have a honeymoon planned and did you get to go on it?

We were planning to go abroad but luckily didnt book before this whole thing started, decided it's now not worth the risk of trying to leave the country, so just having a few days away in Scotland later this week instead.

Fingers crossed we get told not to travel back once we're in the hotel

[Guest JTS98]

1 minute ago, RandomGuy. said:

I'm just frustrated at the amount of folk who are effectively fear mongering at the moment by talking about the figures rising every day, tbh, apologies if that's not you.

It doesnt help anyone and causing more issues as seen by this moronic panic buying of toilet roll.

Aye. The shopping thing has finally kicked off here in Malaysia too. Prime Minister released a statement telling people there is plenty of food and please don't panic buy.

Clearly being told not to panic has never stopped anybody who wants to do so.

What to do, lah.

[welshbairn]

Just now, RandomGuy. said:

I'm just frustrated at the amount of folk who are effectively fear mongering at the moment by talking about the figures rising every day, tbh, apologies if that's not you.

It doesnt help anyone and causing more issues as seen by this moronic panic buying of toilet roll.

The UK death figures are probably accurate.

[FrankChickens1]

We shouldn't be reposting Chinese propaganda.

The Chinese govt has already been ramping up the efforts with nonsense stories about sending staff to Italy, then the Jack Ma donation etc, both of which went absolutely wild on reddit. 

Then the stories of cases being imported into China - although clearly true - are obviously being worded so as to try and make people forget where it started.

Then this nonsense US caused it theory - that the BBC would report that is just playing right into their hands.