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Coronavirus (COVID-19)


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10 minutes ago, Honest Saints Fan said:

46% of all over 80s. So 54% to be done in a week?

They must feel they are on target as my dad is in his 70s and has just got his letter to go for his vaccination on the 8th Feb. I don’t suppose they’ll start the next round till they are confident of finishing the current one.

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4 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

when the government publish that icu figures have decreased, do they count people going out in boxes in that reduction?

yesterday was a sunday so expect tomorows cases to be higher, but those are the best numbers for weeks now

I have always assumed it includes any means of departure from the ICU. 

 

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1 minute ago, Michael W said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55791914

No schools in England will open before Easter. They are closed currently until mid-Feb, which you'd fancy will be prolonged until at least the end of the month. 

I think most reasonable people don't expect schools to be back now until after the planned Easter break, but what is the problem in telling everyone that.  it is this constant 3 week kicking the can down the road bullshit that all governments are coming out with. and is pissing off the public even more as they are unable to plan for anything?

 

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Boris Johnson says he is 'looking at the potential of relaxing some measures' before mid-February - but Number 10 immediately clarifies this is not what he meant !

Above from Sky under a headline that the average age of hospital admissions is now 59 as if that's a bad thing. Surely that means fewer of the most vulnerable are now being hospitalised thus reducing the average age ?

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5 minutes ago, The Stig said:

I think most reasonable people don't expect schools to be back now until after the planned Easter break, but what is the problem in telling everyone that.  it is this constant 3 week kicking the can down the road bullshit that all governments are coming out with. and is pissing off the public even more as they are unable to plan for anything?

 

Agreed. 

If they don't want to put a time on it (fair enough, things change), how about a level of infection/hospital bed occupancy rate that will be suitable instead? This applies to all restrictions as well; its not good enough just to keep extending them without some indication. 

Instead we'll just drop things on people at the last possible moment, ruining preparations once again. It's a farce.

Edited by Michael W
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7 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Agreed. 

If they don't want to put a time on it (fair enough, things change), how about a level of infection/hospital bed occupancy rate that will be suitable instead? This applies to all restrictions as well; its not good enough just to keep extending them without some indication. 

Instead we'll just drop things on people at the last possible moment, ruining preparations once again. It's a farce.

I guess it’s because level of infection or hospital bed occupancy isn’t a stable measure. It may go down to a set figure but fluctuates too easily and could rise again - do you then shut everything down again?

They won’t tie themselves to a fixed point because when they get there, they will want to see if the downward trend looks to continue. If they make it a public target then people will expect everything to open and stay open regardless of what the virus is actually doing at that point.

Edited by Jambomo
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11 minutes ago, Glen Sannox said:

And not one question to NS re the woeful vaccine figures. These lunchtime debacles are so staged it’s embarrassing. A question about a spike in Langholm and Canonbie though!!! 

I'm not convinced they are staged, just that the journalists have their questions ready to ask before NS speaks, and are unwilling / incapable of dropping these in favour of asking pertinent questions based on what she says.

Edited by Todd_is_God
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3 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

The schools up here go back on April 19th after Easter. Surely they can't justify the nationwide lockdown until then with infection numbers already dropping to pre Xmas rates?

bUt tEh uNdIscOveRed VaRiAnTs

Edited by Todd_is_God
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5 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

The schools up here go back on April 19th after Easter. Surely they can't justify the nationwide lockdown until then with infection numbers already dropping to pre Xmas rates?

I don’t particularly see how it could be justified here. It’s not even the end of January and our numbers are going quickly down. You would think by March the whole country would be sub 100 cases per 100000. 

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I'm not convinced they are staged, just that the journalists have their questions ready to ask before NS speaks, and are unwilling / incapable of dropping these in favour of asking pertinent questions based on what she says.
The journalists are either desperate for some sort of gotcha moment off a scripted question based on 'an email we've received from x' or some laughably parochial query about a town in darkest f**k knows where.

They're absolutely useless.
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39 minutes ago, Jan Vojáček said:

Eeech. NS still seems confident of hitting the February target though, I suspect numbers will really take off with the publishing of this new statistical dashboard she spoke about.

Why would publishing a statistical dashboard help improve the numbers? It's just a way of displaying them.

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4 hours ago, Bob Mahelp said:

I don't detect much in the way of good news at the beginning of ...ho hum...another week.

Every single indicator seems to be pointing both towards an extended lockdown...possibly well into the summer, and the growing feeling that nobody in authority really has any kind of fucking clue of how we're going to ever going to come out of this.

Your detection skills are good.

The evidence however will be hard to ignore.

When I do my daily update in a couple of days that removes last Sundays figures and replaces them with yesterdays.  There will be a substantial reduction in the per 100k rate.

By next Tuesday when Scotgov are to review I predict the Cases per 100K will be around 150 per 100K.  A figure 50% lower than the peak on Jan 4th.  That is not a metric that supports Lockdown and should not be hidden.

Hospitals are not going to be at bursting point bursting  up here either.

England by contrast will likely be around (IMO 330) cases per 100K.   That in itself would still be higher than the Scottish Peak.

 

Edited by superbigal
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3 minutes ago, superbigal said:

Your detection skills are good.

The evidence however will be hard to ignore.

When I do my daily update in a couple of days that removes last Sundays figures and replaces them with yesterdays.  There will be a substantial reduction in the per 100k rate.

By next Tuesday when Scotgov are to review I predict the Cases per 100K will be around 150 per 100K.  A figure 50% lower than the peak on Jan 4th.  That is not a metric that supports Lockdown and should not be hidden.

Hospitals are not going to be at bursting point bursting  up here either.

England by contrast will likely be around (IMO 330) cases per 100K.   That in itself would still be higher than the Scottish Peak.

There is only so long ScotGov can hide behind the English problems.   

I like your updates; they are in depth and informative.

However, they don't take in to account anything other than cases, in particular hospital & ICU occupancy levels.

You may find that NS will prefer to keep tight measures in place a few weeks longer than the cases alone suggest is needed because of that, especially with the fear over the potential increased fatality rate of the new variant.

Being looser than England would go against the trend of the last 10 months, and with "Zero Hero" Sridhar in her ear, anything is possible...

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