Thereisalight.. Posted June 7, 2020 Share Posted June 7, 2020 I wonder what stance NS will take at the briefing later in regards to the protests this weekend. She was quick enough to pour scorn on the loonies at the antilockdown gathering and those that clogged up Luss last weekend. Wonder if she’ll brush this under the carpet incase she upsets the left 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JTS98 Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 5 hours ago, Billy Jean King said: I wish some of the govt employed scientific experts (I know, I know) could actually explain whether the reduction in infections and deaths (albeit slow with uk deaths) is down to the measures and SD or down to the virus becoming less potent. If there is no spike by the next review as a layman I would have to conclude it's the later but it would be nice to see this analysed. As it stands and assuming no spike then phase two has to be a goer a week on Thursday. Fingers crossed. There's no credible evidence that the virus is becoming less potent. That doesn't mean it won't happen in future, but no serious organisation or body currently believes that to be true. So the scientific experts are unlikely to specifically mention it because it's just not a 'thing' yet Distancing measure work. We are seeing this all over the world. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamski Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 5 hours ago, Billy Jean King said: I wish some of the govt employed scientific experts (I know, I know) could actually explain whether the reduction in infections and deaths (albeit slow with uk deaths) is down to the measures and SD or down to the virus becoming less potent. If there is no spike by the next review as a layman I would have to conclude it's the later but it would be nice to see this analysed. As it stands and assuming no spike then phase two has to be a goer a week on Thursday. Fingers crossed. The virus almost certainly hasn’t lost potency. The genetic sequence for the virus has been analysed in thousands of patients, and there haven’t been any changes indicating this. Reductions probably are due to the measures. However, most respiratory viruses follow a seasonal pattern and in most cases the summer is the period where rates are lowest. Covid-19 hasn’t been around long enough though to know how much that is a factor that is, but it might be significant. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 4 hours ago, Adamski said: The virus almost certainly hasn’t lost potency. The genetic sequence for the virus has been analysed in thousands of patients, and there haven’t been any changes indicating this. Reductions probably are due to the measures. However, most respiratory viruses follow a seasonal pattern and in most cases the summer is the period where rates are lowest. Covid-19 hasn’t been around long enough though to know how much that is a factor that is, but it might be significant. There seems a consensus that indoor, crowded and poorly ventilated places are the most likely locations for transmission, just as with other respiratory viruses. In most of Europe people spend less time in such places in summer so it would make sense that it's easier to control at this time of year. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 5 hours ago, Adamski said: The virus almost certainly hasn’t lost potency. The genetic sequence for the virus has been analysed in thousands of patients, and there haven’t been any changes indicating this. Reductions probably are due to the measures. However, most respiratory viruses follow a seasonal pattern and in most cases the summer is the period where rates are lowest. Covid-19 hasn’t been around long enough though to know how much that is a factor that is, but it might be significant. In the southern hemisphere it is winter. Presumably we would expect to see things getting worse down there. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, Fullerene said: In the southern hemisphere it is winter. Presumably we would expect to see things getting worse down there. I don't think it's summer itself that reduces transmission of respiratory viruses, it's just that people's behaviour tends to change. In some countries like the UK, that makes transmission harder because people spend more time outside, they are more likely to have windows open, and their immune system may be stronger. If it forced everyone inside because it was too hot, you wouldn't expect the effect to be the same. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Pikey Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 (edited) 12 hours ago, Highland Capital said: What's the deal with people who have the mask over their mouth but not their nose? Surely that defeats the purpose to some degree? Edited June 8, 2020 by Mr Pikey 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 1 hour ago, bendan said: I don't think it's summer itself that reduces transmission of respiratory viruses, it's just that people's behaviour tends to change. In some countries like the UK, that makes transmission harder because people spend more time outside, they are more likely to have windows open, and their immune system may be stronger. If it forced everyone inside because it was too hot, you wouldn't expect the effect to be the same. Some parts of the southern hemisphere are currently as cold just now as what it like here in December. For example the southern parts of Chile and Argentina. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, Fullerene said: Some parts of the southern hemisphere are currently as cold just now as what it like here in December. For example the southern parts of Chile and Argentina. Yes, I realise that. It will be a long time before we know what the actual impact is, seeing as there are so many other factors currently influencing things. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dee Man Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Fullerene said: In the southern hemisphere it is winter. Presumably we would expect to see things getting worse down there. It is indeed winter. I'll keep you all updated as the horrendous weather starts to bite... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 46 minutes ago, bendan said: Yes, I realise that. It will be a long time before we know what the actual impact is, seeing as there are so many other factors currently influencing things. 31 degrees in Qom today, centre of the Iranian outbreak, second wave reported. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 26 minutes ago, Dee Man said: It is indeed winter. I'll keep you all updated as the horrendous weather starts to bite... I hope you fucking drown on Thursday. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dee Man Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, welshbairn said: I hope you fucking drown on Thursday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bendan Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, welshbairn said: 31 degrees in Qom today, centre of the Iranian outbreak, second wave reported. Yes, we can be sure warm temperatures don't stop the virus all by themselves. Would it be worse in cooler temperatures? We'll have to wait and see. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, bendan said: Yes, we can be sure warm temperatures don't stop the virus all by themselves. Would it be worse in cooler temperatures? We'll have to wait and see. It was chilly in Iran when it first kicked off, and it hasn't seemed to have taken hold in Africa. As you say, too early to tell, too many variables. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dee Man Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 2 hours ago, Mr Pikey said: I think saying you can catch Covid through your knob is a bit far-fetched tbh. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven W Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 21 hours ago, Steven W said: My own personal thoughts are that we're thundering along towards a job market abyss, and for a fair amount child care issue will be negated via unemployment / reduced hours owing to lack of demand for products. However, obviously that creates another, bigger, problem... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-52955200 The employment situation is going to get really grim before much longer, especially with furlough winding down soon. There should be very few people in the country feeling confident about their income over the coming years. Demand for goods is going to plummet 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btb Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 35 minutes ago, bendan said: Yes, we can be sure warm temperatures don't stop the virus all by themselves. Would it be worse in cooler temperatures? We'll have to wait and see. I thought humidity was a more important factor with dry conditions being better when it comes to reducing spread of the virus - however a quick Google shows there are about as many opinions as there are scientists. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamski Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 I used to be a researcher working on respiratory virus transmission. I moved on in 2014, and although I keep my eye on what's happening and know quite a few of the people involved at the moment, my finger is off the pulse a bit so I might well have missed things. Certainly back then the seasonal/cyclic nature of virus outbreaks was something that was poorly understood, but generally accepted that it involved multiple factors. Respiratory viruses do tend to crop up in the winter, and being indoors more almost certainly does play a part, however if it was that alone then you'd expect to see more significant outbreaks in colder countries (or colder regions of countries compared to warmer regions), but you don't really get that. You'd also expect that all respiratory viruses to have infection peaks at similar times matching weather patterns/indoor times over the course of a winter, but again you don't really get that: some peak in November, some in March, the other coronaviruses that have been circulating for years (229E, OC43, NL63) tend to match the flu season and usually peak in December/January. If we abandoned social distancing etc then I wouldn't be surprised if Covid-19 eventually fell into a similar patter to the other coronaviruses. Respiratory viruses do tend to settle in to a yearly cyclic pattern though, but when a new one comes along it sometimes takes a couple of waves for that to happen. When swine flu hit, the first wave was May/June 2009, and it came back again in early autumn of the same year. It was only really the third wave that it started to fall into the usual cycle for influenza. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Willie Posted June 8, 2020 Share Posted June 8, 2020 My sheltered housing office popped this through my letter-box this morning. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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