Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Billy Jean King]

Efficacy relates to symptomatic infection. The vaccine trials and data from Israel show near 100% prevention of serious illness and hospitalisation.
Again, there is going to be major crossover between immunity from natural infection and vaccination, which boosts the number of immune individuals.

Hopefully that is the case. As I said I was only posting the theory behind all the "doomsday " masks for ever type rhetoric. I can see logic in the theory but it is just that, we simply don't know and only time will tell.

There is still as it stands absolutely no reason not to start reducing measures come the spring.

[Burnieman]

1 minute ago, latapythelegend said:

 where do we pluck trained nurses and doctors from to do so? I'm going to assume that anybody willing to step forward (retired nhs workers, trainee nurses, etc) and help already made that pledge in the 1st lockdown. 

I'm talking consistent numbers, 7 days a week. I'm sure it's not beyond our ability to organise shifts to cover Sundays.  Now maybe the weather had an impact in some areas, but a 25k drop from the previous day is huge.

[Elixir]

10 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

At least I’m not continually wallowing in self pity like you.

Some of us have the rest of our lives to live, rather than a care home just around the corner.

[Billy Jean King]

Could be! I would have thought they would be open. I hope next Sunday is treble again.

Hard to get a GP practice with few staff to work 7 days a week. Six days isn't unreasonable with the mass centres keeping a 7 day cycle going

[peasy23]

use the same calculation as they daily express weather man?

Yep, you won't need to worry about the vaccine when we are all set to freeze to death by a week on Tuesday.

[Michael W]

24 minutes ago, madwullie said:

@The Moonster

The chat re two jags is that most other countries are focusing on giving two jags to get full protection - we are going for one jagging as many as possible and leaving longer between first and second dose to get the initial immunity and a larger %ge of the popation jagged. 

Depending on where you read, our approach is either a stroke of genius or wildly experimental. France and Spain have said officially our approach is too risky. The JVCI have said our approach is by far the best. 

Some people say there is actually better immunity our way, others are saying the new variant escapes the first jag and needs the second to proper kill it. 

Like everything (including here) , it's become so polarised it's impossible to know who to believe, and your opinion just gets rubbished because you want, for eg, to stay in lockdown forever / are happy to kill the elderly so you can go to the pub on a Friday. 

I'm looking for a holiday in the summer, in. Scotland, completely under the impression that we'll be able to get away no problem. I'm shielding too, so even more at risk than most, but in a situation where my life is probably going to be shorter than most, so this is properly wasted time for me that could be used to tick off bucket list shit. I'm desperate to get out and about and will also reach a point where I do it anyway or I won't ever actually do it. 

But I'm not just going to listen to twitter accounts and read think pieces that reaffirm what I want, because that's not actually critically examining the point. I mean, South Africa have stopped using the vaccine because there's not enough data to show it stops serious illness- that's quite a big thing: but on here we just drag out the opinion pieces, or the head of AZ who says not to worry, or point out what some statistician noone has ever heard of thinks and that's supposed to be it. Not a problem. Just fear porn. Lalalalala. That seems like a daft way to approach it to me. 

Some validation of the approach from the WHO here: 

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-vindicated-over-brave-decision-to-delay-second-vaccine-dose-who-official-says-12211550 

Link amended now, apologies. 

No question that it was a risk doing it the way we've chosen to, though granted this was probably heralded by the panic-stricken reaction to the Kent variant. 

Edited February 8, 2021 by Michael W

[Billy Jean King]

f**k me journo..."why are you opening more local testing stations when folk are not allowed to leave the house to get tested" Seriously get these idiots to f**k.

[Erih Shtrep]

2 minutes ago, Elixir said:

Some of us have the rest of our lives to live, rather than a care home just around the corner.

 

[vikingTON]

32 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

2 hours ago, Ron Aldo said:

I don't mean to come across as ignorant and/or thick but if the population is fully vaccinated then what difference does the R number make? If the virus is still spreading but the majority of people aren't getting seriously ill then what difference does it make?

I'm just struggling to understand how in a fully vaccinated population the virus could still run rampant and overwhelm the health service. If that's likely to be the case then what's the point in vaccinating?

Over 25% of the population would still be susceptible is the theory ie efficacy deficiency plus non vaccination

Susceptible to what exactly? A cough and fever for a few days? 

[Todd_is_God]

31 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

2 hours ago, Burnieman said:

We have vaccines that reduce death to almost zero. How do they get to the point of modelling 130k deaths?

It reduces deaths to zero up to the efficacy rate, about 75% add in unvaccinated population and a fair chunk still susceptible.

Maybe i've gotten this wrong, but my understanding is that deaths among those vaccinated is almost zero.

The efficacy rate is the percentage of those vaccinated who are prevented from catching covid altogether.

All the data so far is pointing towards pretty much all of those who do still contract it following being vaccinated having, at worst, mild - moderate illness.

[budmiester1]

6 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

I'm talking consistent numbers, 7 days a week. I'm sure it's not beyond our ability to organise shifts to cover Sundays.  Now maybe the weather had an impact in some areas, but a 25k drop from the previous day is huge.

Is it possible that for some older folk Sunday is still a day of rest? hopefully as they are vaccinated and we move down the list the younger ones will be more responsive to a Sunday appointment and the numbers will increase?

 

[Elixir]

 

[Burnieman]

1 minute ago, budmiester1 said:

Is it possible that for some older folk Sunday is still a day of rest? hopefully as they are vaccinated and we move down the list the younger ones will be more responsive to a Sunday appointment and the numbers will increase?

Fingers crossed.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Billy Jean King said:

f**k me journo..."why are you opening more local testing stations when folk are not allowed to leave the house to get tested" Seriously get these idiots to f**k.

The irony is that these idiots who believe that they're giving NS and the SG a hard time are in fact boosting their profile with their sheer idiotic questioning and politicising of a dire situation.

Let's be honest, if that was the best you had to offer then you'd just keep your mouth shut.

Of course the biggest indictment is that these clowns are allegedly "professionals" and actually get paid for this !!!

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, Elixir said:

 

We just don't know if it will work, though.

[Marshmallo]

People need to have a breather and cannot work 7 days every week. If the Sunday figures are lower than other days but we're hitting 400k plus over the course of a week then I don't think it matters too much if it's split into 7 equal numbers.

[Billy Jean King]

Maybe i've gotten this wrong, but my understanding is that deaths among those vaccinated is almost zero.
The efficacy rate is the percentage of those vaccinated who are prevented from catching covid altogether.
All the data so far is pointing towards pretty much all of those who do still contract it following being vaccinated having, at worst, mild - moderate illness.

This appears to be the case in Israel so far so hopefully it's the same here despite what the scientists think could happen. Again I suspect we won't even start to get any idea until October or November.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Maybe i've gotten this wrong, but my understanding is that deaths among those vaccinated is almost zero.

The efficacy rate is the percentage of those vaccinated who are prevented from catching covid altogether.

All the data so far is pointing towards pretty much all of those who do still contract it following being vaccinated having, at worst, mild - moderate illness.

Imagine the flu vaccine had that efficacy.

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

8 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Maybe i've gotten this wrong, but my understanding is that deaths among those vaccinated is almost zero.
The efficacy rate is the percentage of those vaccinated who are prevented from catching covid altogether.
All the data so far is pointing towards pretty much all of those who do still contract it following being vaccinated having, at worst, mild - moderate illness.

This appears to be the case in Israel so far so hopefully it's the same here despite what the scientists think could happen. Again I suspect we won't even start to get any idea until October or November.

I suspect we will get a pretty good idea much quicker than that tbh. Perhaps as early as late April / May.

I just hope that they don't then move the goalposts again and claim we need to wait and see what happens in the Winter before we can read anything into the figures.

Edited February 8, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[Billy Jean King]

The irony is that these idiots who believe that they're giving NS and the SG a hard time are in fact boosting their profile with their sheer idiotic questioning and politicising of a dire situation.
Let's be honest, if that was the best you had to offer then you'd just keep your mouth shut.
Of course the biggest indictment is that these clowns are allegedly "professionals" and actually get paid for this !!!

And now a p***k from the Express says "has the small ray of sunlight disappeared behind the clouds again" because test positivity had "crept back above 6 again".