Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[ayrmad]

5 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

People who casualy use phrases like "new normal" as if the Government introducing regulations which will completely change the way society as we know it operates is ok are freaks and part of the problem tbh.

I think those that don't accept that their might be a new normal are the freaks, in nature the freaks usually die due to an unwillingness or inability to adapt. 

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

Latest fear propaganda from the BBC today - you can catch it again and again and again!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-56049680?__twitter_impression=true

If having a headache is the worst she's ever felt in her life then she's done not bad IMO.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

I think those that don't accept that their might be a new normal are the freaks, in nature the freaks usually die due to an unwillingness or inability to adapt. 

RIP then m9

Edited February 16, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[vikingTON]

10 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said:

Pubs and various other hospitality providers will adapt as well. Twenty years ago folk were complaining that the smoking ban would finish the pub trade when all that really happened was that a few shiteholes closed their doors and pubs/restaurants became places you could go without leaving smelling like you'd been standing a bit close to a bonfire for 3 hours.

This is purely anecdotal of course but the only pub I know of round here that's not planning on re-opening is a total shitpit whose owner has been trying to get his son to take it over for years so he can retire to Blackpool. 

I expect a large number of 'wet-led pubs' to never recover properly and will eventually throw in the towel, unless this endless social distancing drivel is punted. The only winners will be 'family-friendly,  glorified barns serving food to Coldplay backing music. Very much a clownshoes Leitch and the gang's sort of place.

[Paco]

On the subject of Israel, worth noting that they are going down the domestic vaccine passport route at least in the short-term. Opening up a lot of domestic activity next week - under social distancing - for those who can prove they’ve either been fully vaccinated or have had Covid. About 30% of the population had been fully vaccinated, in the UK about 23% have received one dose so we’re probably about sixteen weeks away from an equivalent scenario.

Anything other than it going absolutely fine in Israel would be a disaster for us here. No reason it shouldn’t, but worth watching closely.

[ayrmad]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

RIP then m9

I just take things in my stride, I've always found my best hospitality experiences were due to the company I was in rather than the environment. 

[Dons_1988]

2 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

I think those that don't accept that their might be a new normal are the freaks, in nature the freaks usually die due to an unwillingness or inability to adapt. 

You seem to be taking a Standard Grade concept of business studies and applying it fairly simplistically.

Yes, it is the case that businesses must adapt to circumstances, and the most successful ones are agile in that regards.

No, that doesn't mean the government have a blank canvas to set policy that completely re-shapes an entire industry, particularly if it's based on speculative modelling by scientists over a short term period, and the new industry that emerges from it is not what the public want. The adapted model could quite easily end up being a massively downscaled version of what we had before.

Don't forget that Tim Martin is one of these entrepreneurs who adapted to the modern hospitality industry prior to Covid-19 by creating a business model that completely undercut local pubs in pricing. Industries 'adapting' can be a bad thing.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Paco said:

On the subject of Israel, worth noting that they are going down the domestic vaccine passport route at least in the short-term. Opening up a lot of domestic activity next week - under social distancing - for those who can prove they’ve either been fully vaccinated or have had Covid. About 30% of the population had been fully vaccinated, in the UK about 23% have received one dose so we’re probably about sixteen weeks away from an equivalent scenario.

Anything other than it going absolutely fine in Israel would be an absolute disaster for us here. No reason it shouldn’t be, but worth watching closely.

Two things are guaranteed here.

If it goes well, it will get ignored by NS and Leitch.

If it goes badly, though, they will be all over it.

[renton]

33 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

Israel was pumping out positive data within 4-6 weeks of starting their vaccination program. We are 9 weeks in and the UK is still saying another 2 weeks, the line that been peddled for at least 3 weeks now.


 

1. Israel have blasted through it much quicker. Currently at something like 77% where we are on 23% - so they would have hit a tipping point for seeing meaningful differences in the various cohorts much faster than us.

2. They probably weren't delaying the second Pfizer shot, so our groups will have some protection but likely lower than the comparable Israeli group, so again likely to see a more dramatic impact sooner.

3. On a good day, AZ 2 shots is something like 82% vs. Pfizer 95% and one shot AZ interim data was something grim like 50%? So while Israel will be benefiting from double shotting large swathes of their population to >90% in a much quicker time frame, we will be chunking along, slower, with a likely 60-70% efficiency rate, until we get heavy into double dosing.

 

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, ayrmad said:

I just take things in my stride, I've always found my best hospitality experiences were due to the company I was in rather than the environment. 

Well, yes. But I don't generally keep myself 1m/2m away from the company i'm with. I'd find needing to phone the opposite site of the room (because shouting would be banned) a bit of a mood killer tbh.

[Steven W]

12 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

There is a whole host of relevant info on travelling tabby. You should have a look if you are interested.

Scottish journalists have largely been a disgrace - there was a cracker yesterday where one asked a question that NS had already answered essentially word for word in her main address, and another who you could tell was so excited about how clever she would look asking about yellow and red cards she could hardly speak.

Absolute cretins.

Can only echo your thoughts on Traveling Tabby. Really quite remarkable what that lad is putting together on a daily basis.

You can be sure the politicians of the country are casting their eye on it too. And if not, they most certainly should be.

 

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

1. Israel have blasted through it much quicker. Currently at something like 77% where we are on 23% - so they would have hit a tipping point for seeing meaningful differences in the various cohorts much faster than us.

2. They probably weren't delaying the second Pfizer shot, so our groups will have some protection but likely lower than the comparable Israeli group, so again likely to see a more dramatic impact sooner.

3. On a good day, AZ 2 shots is something like 82% vs. Pfizer 95% and one shot AZ interim data was something grim like 50%? So while Israel will be benefiting from double shotting large swathes of their population to >90% in a much quicker time frame, we will be chunking along, slower, with a likely 60-70% efficiency rate, until we get heavy into double dosing.

 

70% and 92% (I think - was over 90 anyway) I got told prior to mine on Friday

[renton]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

70% and 92% (I think - was over 90 anyway) I got told prior to mine on Friday

Pfizer or AZ?

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, renton said:

Pfizer or AZ?

AZ

[renton]

5 minutes ago, Steven W said:

Can only echo your thoughts on Traveling Tabby. Really quite remarkable what that lad is putting together on a daily basis.

You can be sure the politicians of the country are casting their eye on it too. And if not, they most certainly should be.

 

Well, all the data comes from the Government.

I mean, it's a nice resource and much easier to navigate than comparable governmebt dashboards, although the PHS one is pretty decent.

It would be funny though if the public health statisticians were trying to give Sturgeon the updates prior to her press conferences but she was like "no, no I'll wait for Travelling Tabby at 3pm"

Edited February 16, 2021 by renton

[renton]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

AZ

Good to know. Point still stands, Israel will undoubtedly see a more dramatic positive impact than we will over the same timeframe.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

Well, all the data comes from the Government.

I mean, it's a nice resource and much easier to navigate than comparable governmebt dashboards, although the PHS one is pretty decent.

I was going to say that.

It is, however, much easier to read / see trends than the raw data, though.

I doubt any MSPs read it with any great purpose tbh. There's an election in May and no one will be queuing up to rock any boats.

Edited February 16, 2021 by Todd_is_God

[effeffsee_the2nd]

20 minutes ago, virginton said:

I expect a large number of 'wet-led pubs' to never recover properly and will eventually throw in the towel, unless this endless social distancing drivel is punted. The only winners will be 'family-friendly,  glorified barns serving food to Coldplay backing music. Very much a clownshoes Leitch and the gang's sort of place.

I said already , reading this forum you would hardly believe that Scottish  pubs have been in decline for some 30 odd years now,  you'd think all we did was go to the pub .  what happened to all those rural pubs once they stopped turning a blind eye to drunk driving? half of them gone. What happened to all those pishy hovels with the same dozen auld men nursing a pint for 2 hours after the smoking ban? gone!

What is it they are suggesting is going to happen long term? and by long term how long do they mean?

No large groups or partys? wedding? ever?

No standing at the bar?

no interacion with those not at your table?

No music & dancing? ever?

no standing in front of the big screen?

Theres no way THAT many places can operate by simply turning into low ish end restaurants with a large selection of draft beer and "pub grub" food, that's an already massively over subscribed market.

Also we have seen from countries where going out is prohibitively expensive that people simply switch to doing the majority of their socialising at home which 1, they can't keep prohibited forever and 2, they can't really enforce anyway

TL'DR

get new normal tae f**k

In fact. something we all understand. many of us have spent time on this forum lamenting the taylor report for how it changed the experience of going to watch football irreversably. modern newly built standard stadiums like ours at falkirk, make for a much less enjoyable matchday experience than there far more basic predesessors . now granted many clubs had allowed their grounds to fall into such a poor state that they were no longer safe or suitable to host large crowds. but many were forced to scrap areas which were hugely popular with supporters and replace them with facilities which were not wanted ( most old grounds already had seated areas for those who wanted that)  So ask yourself, is this what you want for hospitality and entertainment X10 ?

Edited February 16, 2021 by effeffsee_the2nd

[FFCinthearea]

3 minutes ago, Steven W said:

Can only echo your thoughts on Traveling Tabby. Really quite remarkable what that lad is putting together on a daily basis.

You can be sure the politicians of the country are casting their eye on it too. And if not, they most certainly should be.

 

His stats are very well put together.   Interestingly the R number in Scotland has been below one for over three weeks, the last time that happened we dropped down a tier.

[ayrmad]

10 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said:

You seem to be taking a Standard Grade concept of business studies and applying it fairly simplistically.

Yes, it is the case that businesses must adapt to circumstances, and the most successful ones are agile in that regards.

No, that doesn't mean the government have a blank canvas to set policy that completely re-shapes an entire industry, particularly if it's based on speculative modelling by scientists over a short term period, and the new industry that emerges from it is not what the public want. The adapted model could quite easily end up being a massively downscaled version of what we had before.

Don't forget that Tim Martin is one of these entrepreneurs who adapted to the modern hospitality industry prior to Covid-19 by creating a business model that completely undercut local pubs in pricing. Industries 'adapting' can be a bad thing.

Standard grade as opposed to p1 levels of "hospitality will be gone" where this all started. 

Knicker-wetting is just the norm on here nowadays, it's like reading posts from Bonnie Langford at times. 

Edited February 16, 2021 by ayrmad