LongTimeLurker Posted November 6, 2021 Share Posted November 6, 2021 Don't doubt what you say in bigger picture terms globally but Vlad likes to maintain the notion that the Donbas conflict is a local revolt against neo-Nazi Banderites rather than an invasion. If I was of military age and from Donetsk some of the drone footage the Ukrainians are putting online of the DNR's trenchline right now would definitely seriously impact my enthusiasm level for going anywhere near them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Things are still nasty in Ethiopia. Looks like Addis Ababa could fall soon and Abiy is urging civilians to take up arms against the rebels. The humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 There are currently large numbers of refugees / migrants trying to cross the Poland-Belarusian border. There have been rumours that Belarusian authorities have transported the migrants to spots in the border to attempt to cross. A similar thing happened in Greece last year where Turkish authorities transported migrants/refugees to the border but Greek troops forced them back. Very grim scenes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigDoddyKane Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 The EU led by Merkel if I remember right doing a deal with Turkey incentivised thats sort of behaviour 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 (edited) On 07/11/2021 at 16:24, DiegoDiego said: Things are still nasty in Ethiopia. Looks like Addis Ababa could fall soon... How a rebel army from a landlocked territory on the brink of famine like Tigray can go from being invaded by the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies and driven out of all the larger cities and towns to the brink of victory against an enemy with a much larger population and stronger economy is completely bizarre. Either they are getting a lot of help on the sly from a superpower (no prizes for guessing who) or the Ethiopian side is spectacularly inept. Edited November 8, 2021 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 The Tigrayans were in power for three decades and have the military power which came from that and generals who lead during the war with Eritrea.They've also been joined by the Oromo who make up a third of the population while Eritrea have taken a seat on the sidelines. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 True to an extent on the first part which is why the getting invaded and initially severely beaten angle was mentioned. My understanding is that most of the weapons the Tigrayans have at this point had to be captured from the Ethiopian army since the conflict started and are not a direct legacy of the earlier era of dominance. The significance of their latest victories around the city of Dessie and how it tips the balance appears to be that they have now captured a massive fuel depot and a large WFP warehouse with famine relief supplies. The Oromo were actually the key driving force behind forcing the Tigrayan led coalition government that favoured ethnic federalism out of power in Addis Ababa a few years back but seem to have subsequently been sidelined by an attempt to wind back the clock to an Amhara dominated unitary Ethiopia similar to what was the case under Haile Selassie and Colonel Mengistu. They seem to have belatedly realised that wouldn't be good news for them and have decided that they would have been better off sticking with the Tigrayans. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 I think Abiy Ahmed is half Oromo, so you can understand why they thought they might have got a good deal under his leadership. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 4 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said: How a rebel army from a landlocked territory on the brink of famine like Tigray can go from being invaded by the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies and driven out of all the larger cities and towns to the brink of victory against an enemy with a much larger population and stronger economy is completely bizarre. Either they are getting a lot of help on the sly from a superpower (no prizes for guessing who) or the Ethiopian side is spectacularly inept. There are pro Tigray hashtags trending on Twitter regularly so they obviously have US support. The question is what did Ethiopia do to piss off Washington? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Got too close to China tends to be the speculation on that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 12 hours ago, DiegoDiego said: I think Abiy Ahmed is half Oromo, so you can understand why they thought they might have got a good deal under his leadership. Have seen him described as a Manchurian Candidate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Migrants at the Polish-Belarusian border. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 It was on the Twitter summary so who knows how accurate it is but Lithuania are in teh process of building a border fence hundreds of kilometres along it's border with Belarus. They are also pushing for EU sanctions to be tightened further against Belarus. Most of the migrants are Iraqi Kurds. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 (edited) Can't vouch for these tweets, but it sounds mental. Belarus flying in refugees from across the middle east and trying to force them through the Lithuanian and Polish borders. Edited November 10, 2021 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 (edited) That Visegrad 24 account isn't credible. He's very far right. I'd wager the entire EU border will be militarised by the end of decade. Edited November 10, 2021 by Detournement 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Detournement said: That Visegrad 24 account isn't credible. He's very far right. I'd wager the entire EU border will be militarised by the end of decade. Think it originally came from this new account, so looks fishy. I'm afraid you'll be correct, a new iron curtain to replace the old one. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Think it originally came from this new account, so looks fishy. I'm afraid you'll be correct, a new iron curtain to replace the old one. Anna Karina my all time fave. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 That Visegrad 24 account isn't credible. He's very far right. I'd wager the entire EU border will be militarised by the end of decade.Is he not credible and he's very far right, or is he not credible because he's very far right? Because some of the sources you've quoted in the past have been very far left.Was this Belarus flying in refugees then pushing them on the EU not a story about two years ago? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 He does seem to be far right, given the friends he quotes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 11 hours ago, DiegoDiego said: Is he not credible and he's very far right, or is he not credible because he's very far right? Because some of the sources you've quoted in the past have been very far left. Was this Belarus flying in refugees then pushing them on the EU not a story about two years ago? Every far right party makes up lies about immigration. It's safer to assume they are lying and work from there. As Welshbairn points out an account that is boosting Vox speeches is best ignored. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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