Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[ICTChris]

[ICTChris]

Apparently the previous President and his ‘people’ are in Dubai.  Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned a few years ago, after previous protests, but is still head of the State Security committee or something like that and is seen as having his hand on the tiller. One reason for this is that official government communications have stopped calling the capital ‘Nur Sultan’ which it was named a few years ago in honour of the ‘old man’. The statues honouring  him have been pulled down by protesters in several cities, needs some lads in Stone Island to defend them.

Not much information coming from inside the country, obviously as the internet is effectively blocked.

 

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Apparently the previous President and his ‘people’ are in Dubai.  Nursultan Nazarbayev resigned a few years ago, after previous protests, but is still head of the State Security committee or something like that and is seen as having his hand on the tiller. One reason for this is that official government communications have stopped calling the capital ‘Nur Sultan’ which it was named a few years ago in honour of the ‘old man’. The statues honouring  him have been pulled down by protesters in several cities, needs some lads in Stone Island to defend them.

Not much information coming from inside the country, obviously as the internet is effectively blocked.

 

Heard someone speculating on the radio that the Nazarbayev family and friends snuck armed elements into the protests, killing security people and provoking the Russian intervention to try and get back into full power and in control of the purse strings. Was half asleep so not sure how reliable it is.

Edited January 7, 2022 by welshbairn

[ICTChris]

Here’s one statue of Nazarbayev being pulled down in Almaty.

 

[ICTChris]

Just now, welshbairn said:

Heard someone speculating on the radio that the Nazarbayev family and friends snuck armed elements into the protests, killing security people and provoking the Russian intervention to try and get back into full power and in control of the purse strings. Was half asleep so not sure how reliable it is.

I have seen a couple of comments along these lines - it’s getting into Kremlinology of Kazakhstan a bit. 

[Ayrshire Analytica]

The UK have given their tacit approval and support to the, seemingly, outgoing despot of Kazakhstan at numerous levels, over the years.  They'll be sad to see him go.

Unsurprisingly, there is a lot of Kazakh money being laundered through the City of London.

Also, the Kazakh military, currently engaged atrocities against protesters, does annual exercises with British and American militaries and sends officers to Sandhurst.  

The War Criminal PM, Blair, previously served as advisor for this regime which, coincidently, was also killing protesters back then, too.

[ICTChris]

https://eurasianet.org/kazakhstan-ex-security-services-chief-and-nazarbayev-ally-arrested
 

Article that covers some of what @welshbairn mentioned, factional regime in-fighting.

[ICTChris]

Masimov, the Kazakh Michael Gove.

 

[Suspect Device]

Iran says 25-year China agreement enters implementation stage | Nuclear Energy News | Al Jazeera

 

[Zetterlund]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/13/russia-says-talks-with-nato-over-ukraine-are-hitting-a-dead-end

[Detournement]

The UK is deploying troops and heavy weaponry in Ukraine. While demanding Russia moves forces based within Russia. 

All the talk of a planned flag by Russia and these new deployments looks very much like NATO planning an offensive in the Donbass.

[renton]

2 hours ago, Detournement said:

The UK is deploying troops and heavy weaponry in Ukraine. While demanding Russia moves forces based within Russia. 

All the talk of a planned flag by Russia and these new deployments looks very much like NATO planning an offensive in the Donbass.

No, it doesn't.

[bennett]

2 hours ago, Detournement said:

The UK is deploying troops and heavy weaponry in Ukraine. While demanding Russia moves forces based within Russia. 

All the talk of a planned flag by Russia and these new deployments looks very much like NATO planning an offensive in the Donbass.

 

Looks like we've sent some javelins and some instructors. 

 

Our armed forces are too small and poorly equipped to do anything else

[renton]

17 minutes ago, bennett said:

 

Looks like we've sent some javelins and some instructors. 

 

Our armed forces are too small and poorly equipped to do anything else

Aye, a bunch of instructors showing Ukraine how to use a short range anti armour missile is definitely more "offensive" than a dozen or so mechanised and armoured Russian brigades forward deployed to another country's border.

[Detournement]

8 hours ago, renton said:

Aye, a bunch of instructors showing Ukraine how to use a short range anti armour missile is definitely more "offensive" than a dozen or so mechanised and armoured Russian brigades forward deployed to another country's border.

Russia's forces are in Russia!

 

[Zetterlund]

The only place Russia is about to invade Ukraine is in western newspapers. Ukrainian officials themselves have repeatedly said as much. An ex-security chief just said the only purpose of the war propaganda is to turn his country into a NATO arms depot.

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, Zetterlund said:

The only place Russia is about to invade Ukraine is in western newspapers. Ukrainian officials themselves have repeatedly said as much. An ex-security chief just said the only purpose of the war propaganda is to turn his country into a NATO arms depot.

Do you think the hundred thousand Russian troops moved up to the Ukrainian borders are there in case Ukraine decides to invade Russia?

[Theyellowbox]

There is an argument to say that the unrest in the 'stans' and Belarus is actually a problem for Putin as opposed to the opportunity to exert influence that is often reported.

That there is unrest in the first place is a decent indication of the unhappiness of the general population in their leaders and their ties to Russia.

The threats to Ukraine to an extent back this up. The iron grip they have over some former soviet states via their leaders is loosening longer term and the advance on Ukraine would on the one hand quell some opposition but could galvanise others. Putin would be gambling that any action on Ukraine would be the former. 

While the assumption is Russia is a powerful force, it really isn't when compared to the US and Nato as a whole. All sides know this, especially Russia. They need to take others to the brink to be seen to be powerful domestically as without the illusion of power, the authority quickly crumbles.

Also need consider the political vaccum post Putin. I'd say what we are seeing is the final stages of an authoritarian regime which knows the end is near (next 5-10 years).

Edited January 18, 2022 by Theyellowbox

[welshbairn]

I sometimes think Putin just gets bored every so often and wants to stir things up. Bit of meat to throw at his supporters too, see the world quake as the mighty Putin shakes his fist.

[DiegoDiego]

There is an argument to say that the unrest in the 'stans' and Belarus is actually a problem for Putin as opposed to the opportunity to exert influence that is often reported.
That there is unrest in the first place is a decent indication of the unhappiness of the general population in their leaders and their ties to Russia.

I'm not sure that's true in the case of Kazakhstan and greater influence over Kazakhstan would be of great value to Russia.