Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[Fullerene]

45 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Spain would have a stronger case if they hadn't held onto Ceuta and Melilla:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceuta

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melilla

You forgot to mention Penon De Velez De La Gomera.  The world's shortest International border.

[invergowrie arab]

15 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

 

It was already occupied when it was ceded.

2 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Spain would have a stronger case if they hadn't held onto Ceuta and Melilla:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceuta

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melilla

Spain has no democratic legitimacy to govern Gibraltar.

The UK occupies part of the mainland of an EU and NATO member.

The two ideas aren't mutually exclusive.

[coprolite]

1 hour ago, invergowrie arab said:

It was already occupied when it was ceded.

Spain has no democratic legitimacy to govern Gibraltar.

The UK occupies part of the mainland of an EU and NATO member.

The two ideas aren't mutually exclusive.

It's not part of spain. It's next door. 

The Spanish (or a predecessor kingdom) took it by force in the first place so they can do one. 

[welshbairn]

4 hours ago, Fullerene said:

You forgot to mention Penon De Velez De La Gomera.  The world's shortest International border.

Talking of Spanish enclaves.. Although the locals in this one would prefer it not to be.

 

[marycarneg]

What do you think about Chinese hegemony? Now many countries are fighting for their own economic security.

[vikingTON]

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/feb/20/losing-afghanistan-the-fall-of-kabul-and-the-end-of-western-intervention-review-brian-brivati-the-naked-dont-fear-the-water-matthieu-aikins

Looks like an interesting read on the recent history of Afghanistan, that has indeed been remarkably shuffled off the Western agenda.

Edited February 21, 2022 by vikingTON

[welshbairn]

34 minutes ago, marycarneg said:

What do you think about Chinese hegemony? Now many countries are fighting for their own economic security.

Don't assume a gift from any foreign power comes without strings, they'll want it back with interest.

[Detournement]

21 hours ago, virginton said:

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/feb/20/losing-afghanistan-the-fall-of-kabul-and-the-end-of-western-intervention-review-brian-brivati-the-naked-dont-fear-the-water-matthieu-aikins

Looks like an interesting read on the recent history of Afghanistan, that has indeed been remarkably shuffled off the Western agenda.

Aye the histrionic defenders of Afghan girls and women kept interest for about the same amount of time as the kids who were after Joseph Kony back in the day. 

Afghan women and girls are starving to death but high horsing over Putin is the new thing. 

[Guest Jedi]

All perfect timing for Johnson, as it allows him to 'grandstand', as a protector of Western 'values'.

[Salt n Vinegar]

If things go bad economically for Putin's pals at home, he'll end up retiring on "health grounds". 

It's kind of hard to be healthy if you become convinced that your former friends have had their assets ruined/seized and "aren't very happy" with you. 

We've had the usual calls this morning on the Radio Scotland phone in blaming the situation in Ukraine on the American and British arms industries and on NATO, so we are in for the usual information wars. 

[O'Kelly Isley III]

One thing that must be avoided regarding the situation in Ukraine is knee-jerk groupthink and a rush to demonise Russia and the Russian people.  In the same way that I would be aghast if anyone abroad assumed that Johnson's views at all times represented those of the UK electorate, there will likely be great unease in Russia at Putin's military incursion.  That won't alter anything in the short term but over time it could prove significant if the economic screw was applied for real as opposed to rhetorically.

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

If things go bad economically for Putin's pals at home, he'll end up retiring on "health grounds". 

It's kind of hard to be healthy if you become convinced that your former friends have had their assets ruined/seized and "aren't very happy" with you. 

We've had the usual calls this morning on the Radio Scotland phone in blaming the situation in Ukraine on the American and British arms industries and on NATO, so we are in for the usual information wars. 

I expect the major oligarchs will have had plenty warning to hide their assets, unfortunately the only way to hit Putin is to hit ordinary Russians and businesses ability to trade. Whether they blame us or Putin will probably depend on how long the Ukraine war drags on. 

[Old Pack]

Hopefully the Russians see sense and he gets ousted / assassinated by the military.

We’ve all suspected he’s a bit of a mad man, worrying times.

[Anonapersona]

If Russia gets away with this I can see China invading Taiwan.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

One thing that must be avoided regarding the situation in Ukraine is knee-jerk groupthink and a rush to demonise Russia and the Russian people.  In the same way that I would be aghast if anyone abroad assumed that Johnson's views at all times represented those of the UK electorate, there will likely be great unease in Russia at Putin's military incursion.  That won't alter anything in the short term but over time it could prove significant if the economic screw was applied for real as opposed to rhetorically.

There's also been a rush by some old style tankies to act as apologists for Putin

Saw one post from an ex-FB acquaintance praising the Russians of Donbas gaining their independence.

The same poster opposes Scottish Independence.

Some on the left need to take a good hard look at themselves here and recognise that this invasion does no favours for ordinary Ukrainians and Russians.

[Florentine_Pogen]

On 20/02/2022 at 09:36, Fullerene said:

You forgot to mention Penon De Velez De La Gomera.  The world's shortest International border.

Bugger......I read that as Paz de la Huerta............she's in my Dead Pool.

Edited February 24, 2022 by Florentine_Pogen

[Illgresi]

8 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

One thing that must be avoided regarding the situation in Ukraine is knee-jerk groupthink and a rush to demonise Russia and the Russian people.  In the same way that I would be aghast if anyone abroad assumed that Johnson's views at all times represented those of the UK electorate, there will likely be great unease in Russia at Putin's military incursion.  That won't alter anything in the short term but over time it could prove significant if the economic screw was applied for real as opposed to rhetorically.

That of course isn't the case, and I have no doubt that the majority of Russian people are quite shocked at the events unfolding.

Doesn't detract from the actions of Putin and the Russian heirarchy however.

NATO must respond by forcefully defending the Ukraine in my opinion. Putin is the archetypal schoolyard bully. Bloody his nose and he'll back off (and lose face domestically). Back-off and play a diplomatic game where we don't hold as many cards as we think; he will only become emboldened.

[welshbairn]

I see Egypt, who used to supply the Roman Empire with wheat, is now the world's biggest importer.

[DiegoDiego]

I see Egypt, who used to supply the Roman Empire with wheat, is now the world's biggest importer.

A third of Italy's wheat at (presumably one of the points in) the time of the Roman empire came from Algeria, it's now the biggest importer per capita.

[welshbairn]

49 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

8 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I see Egypt, who used to supply the Roman Empire with wheat, is now the world's biggest importer.

A third of Italy's wheat at (presumably one of the points in) the time of the Roman empire came from Algeria, it's now the biggest importer per capita.

Read a book years ago called Hydro Politics of the Nile, showing how states managed to cooperate despite extreme water resource challenges. Upstream countries like Sudan and Ethiopia letting the water flow to Egypt even under years of drought. Not sure how it's going now but it makes the current daftness and effects on fuel and grain distribution look really uncivilised and incompetent.