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Geopolitics in the 2020s.


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Shinzo Abe, former Japanese Prome Minister, has been shot at a campaign event. Reading reports he seems very seriously injured. No idea if the motive.

Abe stood down in 2020 and has been Japans longest serving PM, in office from 2006-2007 and then 2012-2020.

Probably the most senior politician wounded in an assassination attempt in many years.

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Sri Lanka PM says he will step down after protestors set his hoose on fire and swam in his pool.
I don’t know much about Sri Lanka apart from it’s largest city being named after famous TV police detective Columbo.
Sri Lankans not fucking about. Britain would probably just have voted him back in.
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Sri Lanka switched to an ‘organic economy’ and banned all kinds of modern farming techniques. Predictably, it’s all went to shit since then.

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  • 3 weeks later...

Reports from Karabakh that Azerbijan has launched a new offensive in Karabakh.  Very sporadic reports that Azerbijan is attacking the Northern areas of Karabakh, currently still held by Armenian forces.  The 2020 war saw Azerbijan break through in the South of the territory and attack from there.  The Northern areas were seen as more heavily defended.  There are some videos fo Azeri armour being driven to the front, unconfirmed.

The Russian-Ukrainian war has a big part of what is happening.  Russia is now more reliant on the Azeri regime and Baku to move their products (oil and gas) to India.  Russian diplomats have made several visits to Baku, they have signed an intelligence pact with Azeribijan.  The Russian Ambassador also visited Shushi, captured by Azeri troops in the 2020 war.  In fact, IIRC President Aliyev was visiting the Kremlin on the day of the invasion. 

Russia is the main, and indeed, only significant ally the Armenians have.  Armenia have backed the Russian lead intervention in Kazakhstan earlier this year, sening special forces troops as part of the CSTO 'peacekeeping mission'.  They have abstained in international organisation votes against the invasion but haven't really backed it.  The Russian peacekeeping mission in Karabakh is clearly under pressure due to the resources focused on Ukraine.  In addition, rearming Armenian forces would only really be possible by Russia and clearly their new production of arms is going to be focused on their ongoing war.  

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