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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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3 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:
4 minutes ago, NotThePars said:


Yeah, there’s probably an element of sexism to it like there was with Hillary in 2016 but it’s also worth remembering that Harris is a terrible candidate with nothing to offer people beyond her identity.

Let's call a spade a spade, Harris was brought in for the female and black vote. It's wrong but that's what Biden has tried

No need for that.

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11 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

pfff no chance, game over if Trump wins there?

No, Biden needs any two of Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. He's just on course in Georgia because of Atlanta, but the others are touch and go.

I wouldn't rule out Pennsylvania; most of those remaining votes are mail-ins from very Democrat counties. They could easily break 4-to-1 or 5-to-1 for Biden. 

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1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Not if Georgia and Arizona flip as appears likely.

Where are you guys seeing this about Georgia flipping? BBC has Trump with a comfortable lead there with 92% votes counted.

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2 minutes ago, Gaz said:

Where are you guys seeing this about Georgia flipping? BBC has Trump with a comfortable lead there with 92% votes counted.

Best to ignore the BBC and follow American outlets. Most of the remaining votes to be counted are from the Atlanta area which is very heavily Democrat.

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2 minutes ago, Gaz said:

Where are you guys seeing this about Georgia flipping? BBC has Trump with a comfortable lead there with 92% votes counted.

Last I checked the New York Times were predicting a Biden win because the votes still to be counted are likely to be for Biden.

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1 minute ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

Biden to win Georgia, Trump to win Pennsylvania and it all to come down to whether Biden can win either one of Wisconsin and Michigan imo.

Absolutely wild how close this is going to be and how much shit Biden would be eating right now if it weren't for the pandemic. 

Wisconsin seems to be in a state of flux, but Biden appears to be marginally ahead.  

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5 minutes ago, Gaz said:

Where are you guys seeing this about Georgia flipping? BBC has Trump with a comfortable lead there with 92% votes counted.

Trump leads by 102,134 with 405,357 votes to be counted. Biden needs 62.6% of those to win. Those votes are overwhelmingly mail-ins from the Atlanta area, when Biden already has 72% to 85%. New York Times says Biden is favourite to take the state.

BBC understand as much about this as CNN do about Moray Council by-elections.

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36 minutes ago, G51 said:

 

Another centrist wet dream that turned out to be an enormous con.

And people say Liberals don't stand for anything.

👏 more 👏 female 👏 wallet 👏 inspectors 👏

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Biden sitting at 3.3 on Betfair which is usually accurate. 

Serious question as I’m not much of a betting man, but how can the bookies odds/markets favour a Trump win so clearly, when the major news outlets are still predicting that this will go right to the wire? [emoji848]

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9 minutes ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

Absolutely wild how close this is going to be and how much shit Biden would be eating right now if it weren't for the pandemic. 

Don't know if the pandemic's made much of a difference. Democrat voters cite it, but a lot of Republican voters referring to it as the china virus and a lot of resentment about lockdown measures.

Edited by Mr Heliums
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