Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[Baxter Parp]

[Trogdor]

I'm going to ask some questions if I may...

Has there been any indicative analysis on turnout? This is a weird election not least due to Covid-19. Who stands to benefit from higher or lower turnout? 

Also, when will we get some meaningful polls? All the ones getting tweeted just now have fieldwork from a couple of weeks back. The old adage that a week is a long time in politics is especially true just now.

I see a lot of information on Salmond being viewed negatively (with <20% approval) but what was he at his pomp? He was never individually as popular as Nicola and was very much marmite. How far has his favourably fallen?

Edited March 28, 2021 by Trogdor

[The Golden God]

Bold strategy from Douglas here. “There would be another politician who has been a million times better than me forever, especially this week” is certainly high risk.

[John Lambies Doos]

Bold strategy from Douglas here. “There would be another politician who has been a million times better than me forever, especially this week” is certainly high risk.

Puppets? He's such a twisted c**t

[SANTAN]

3 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

1 hour ago, The Golden God said:

Bold strategy from Douglas here. “There would be another politician who has been a million times better than me forever, especially this week” is certainly high risk.

Puppets? He's such a twisted c**t

I have no faith in him tbh. I know a lot of people here obviously don't like Davidson but she is levels above him imo. 

I must say the talent in the current Scottish Conservative party is pretty diabolical, I can't think of anyone that bucks the trend at the moment. I'm actually liking the look of Sarwar so far but I think Scottish Labour are at such a low point also that I can't see a quick way out for them either way. 

[cdhafc1874]

Doesn't say much for the quality of candidate his party has when Ross is asking folk to vote for the Tories to elect more MSP's like Annie Wells...

[alta-pete]

32 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

I have no faith in him tbh. I know a lot of people here obviously don't like Davidson but she is levels above him imo. 

I must say the talent in the current Scottish Conservative party is pretty diabolical, I can't think of anyone that bucks the trend at the moment. I'm actually liking the look of Sarwar so far but I think Scottish Labour are at such a low point also that I can't see a quick way out for them either way. 

Agreed. In Scottish politics ( in no particular order) we have Nicola (mentored by Eck),Eck himself, Ruth (did so well she’s off to the Lords) and the latecomer Sarwar (good guy but tied to a now irrelevant party in Scotland) as anything like competent politicians.  

The rest are (IMO) overpaid toon cooncillors. Unless anyone wants to advocate any particular rising star that I’ve missed? 

[Donathan]

 

Given the areas that went yellow between 2017 and 2019, the SNP have to be fancying their chances of a majority without the list IMO.

 

The SNP won 59 of Scotland's 73 constituencies five years ago and won 4 list seats for a total of 63 MSPs, just 2 short of the 65 needed for outright control of the parliament.

 

So to win a majority without relying on the list, the SNP need to hold all their constituencies and gain 6 seats.

 

The 14 non-SNP seats are:

 

1. Orkney and 2. Shetland

Grouping these together, rocks could melt under the sun before either of these seats elect anything other than a Liberal Democrat.

3. Edinburgh Western

My money would be on an ACH hold given that the Lib Dems have a solid majority both here and in the Westminster seat.

4. Edinburgh Southern

Labour hold written all over it given that the constituency has the higher proportion of rUK born voters in all of Scotland due to the presence of Edinburgh University, there is a lot of Tory tactical vote that could go to Labour and the fact that the WM seat is safe Labour.

5. Edinburgh Central

I think we are looking at an SNP GAIN given that the popular Ruth Davidson is retiring, well known SNP candidate in Angus Robertson plus there was a big-pro SNP swing in the WM seat 15 months ago. I'd be very surprised if Robertson doesn't win the seat.

6. North-East Fife

Willie Rennie hangs on to this IMO thanks to tactical voting. In the 2019 GE the Labour and Tory votes both collapsed here to help Wendy Chamberlain of the Lib Dems unseat Stephen Gethins, the only SNP seat loss in that entire election. I think we'll see a similar phenomenon here and Willie keeps his seat.

7. Aberdeenshire West

This will come down to a few hundred votes between the sitting MSP Alexander Burnett and the SNP candidate Fergus Mutch. West Aberdeenshire is becoming Tory farmer heartlands, so I'd back Burnett to hand on by the skin of his teeth, perhaps a smaller majority than even the 900 votes he won by last time.

8. Ayr

SNP took the WM seat on less favourable boundaries than this and the majority is only 750. This should be SNP GAIN all day long.

9. Dumfriesshire

Tory heartland, hold for Fluffy Jr

10. East Lothian

The local MP being a yes da aside, this can go to Paul McLennan for the Nationalists. They won the WM seat easily in 2019 and are only 1000 votes behind last time (even closer in 2011). This should be our third SNP GAIN.

11.  Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire

Tory heartland

12.  Galloway and West Dumfries

Of the Tory border seats this is the one that the SNP have a sniff of but Alistair Jack held on comfortably enough at the general election and I think Finlay Carson will here.

13. Eastwood

Former Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw is on a shoogly peg and this can go to Colm Merrick IMO. The SNP were only 1611 behind Carlaw last time and Labour only another couple of hundred back from that, but the SNP won back the WM seat easily in 2019 and more importantly, the Labour candidate last time was the former constituency MSP Ken MacIntosh who of course got back in through the list and is now the speaker. He had a popular local following but you'd expect a lot of his personal votes to go to the SNP. SNP GAIN.

14. Dumbarton

Jackie Baillie only won this by 109 votes last time. Easy SNP GAIN.

 

So I expect 5 seats to easily flip for the SNP: Edinburgh Central, Ayr, East Lothian, Eastwood and Dumbarton. Assuming they don't lose a held seat, that would leave them needing one of the other Edinburgh seats, NE Fife, Aberdeenshire West or G&WD. Even if not, you'd expect them to pick up one list seat in the H&I and one in the South so I think a full majority is within reach.

 

If enough yes supporters flip their list vote over to the Greens in the other six regions then we could be looking at a thumping independence majority in Holyrood, possibly 75+ yes supporting MSPs

[alta-pete]

4 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

Given the areas that went yellow between 2017 and 2019, the SNP have to be fancying their chances of a majority without the list IMO.

 

The SNP won 59 of Scotland's 73 constituencies five years ago and won 4 list seats for a total of 63 MSPs, just 2 short of the 65 needed for outright control of the parliament.

 

So to win a majority without relying on the list, the SNP need to hold all their constituencies and gain 6 seats.

 

The 14 non-SNP seats are:

 

1. Orkney and 2. Shetland

Grouping these together, rocks could melt under the sun before either of these seats elect anything other than a Liberal Democrat. AGREED 

3. Edinburgh Western

My money would be on an ACH hold given that the Lib Dems have a solid majority both here and in the Westminster seat. GOES TORY 

4. Edinburgh Southern

Labour hold written all over it given that the constituency has the higher proportion of rUK born voters in all of Scotland due to the presence of Edinburgh University, there is a lot of Tory tactical vote that could go to Labour and the fact that the WM seat is safe Labour. AGREED 

5. Edinburgh Central

I think we are looking at an SNP GAIN given that the popular Ruth Davidson is retiring, well known SNP candidate in Angus Robertson plus there was a big-pro SNP swing in the WM seat 15 months ago. I'd be very surprised if Robertson doesn't win the seat. I’D BE ASTONISHED IF HE DOES! TORY HOLD 

6. North-East Fife

Willie Rennie hangs on to this IMO thanks to tactical voting. In the 2019 GE the Labour and Tory votes both collapsed here to help Wendy Chamberlain of the Lib Dems unseat Stephen Gethins, the only SNP seat loss in that entire election. I think we'll see a similar phenomenon here and Willie keeps his seat. OK 

7. Aberdeenshire West

This will come down to a few hundred votes between the sitting MSP Alexander Burnett and the SNP candidate Fergus Mutch. West Aberdeenshire is becoming Tory farmer heartlands, so I'd back Burnett to hand on by the skin of his teeth, perhaps a smaller majority than even the 900 votes he won by last time. AGREED 

8. Ayr

SNP took the WM seat on less favourable boundaries than this and the majority is only 750. This should be SNP GAIN all day long. NAE DANGER  TORY HOLD  

9. Dumfriesshire

Tory heartland, hold for Fluffy Jr AGREED 

10. East Lothian

The local MP being a yes da aside, this can go to Paul McLennan for the Nationalists. They won the WM seat easily in 2019 and are only 1000 votes behind last time (even closer in 2011). This should be our third SNP GAIN. AGREED 

11.  Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire

Tory heartland AGREED 

12.  Galloway and West Dumfries

Of the Tory border seats this is the one that the SNP have a sniff of but Alistair Jack held on comfortably enough at the general election and I think Finlay Carson will here. AGREED 

13. Eastwood

Former Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw is on a shoogly peg and this can go to Colm Merrick IMO. The SNP were only 1611 behind Carlaw last time and Labour only another couple of hundred back from that, but the SNP won back the WM seat easily in 2019 and more importantly, the Labour candidate last time was the former constituency MSP Ken MacIntosh who of course got back in through the list and is now the speaker. He had a popular local following but you'd expect a lot of his personal votes to go to the SNP. SNP GAIN??  UTTER FKN NONSENSE!! 

14. Dumbarton

Jackie Baillie only won this by 109 votes last time. Easy SNP GAIN. THIS ONE TOO TIGHT TO CALL  I THINK LABOUR AN IRRELEVANCE, ANTI-SNP WILL COALESCE TO THE TORIES 

 

So I expect 5 seats to easily flip for the SNP: Edinburgh Central, Ayr, East Lothian, Eastwood and Dumbarton. Assuming they don't lose a held seat, that would leave them needing one of the other Edinburgh seats, NE Fife, Aberdeenshire West or G&WD. Even if not, you'd expect them to pick up one list seat in the H&I and one in the South so I think a full majority is within reach.

 

If enough yes supporters flip their list vote over to the Greens in the other six regions then we could be looking at a thumping independence majority in Holyrood, possibly 75+ yes supporting MSPs

On my maths SNP will gain 1, maybe 2, constituency seats. Time will tell. 

[Donathan]

3 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

On my maths SNP will gain 1, maybe 2, constituency seats. Time will tell. 

Which ones do you have them getting?

[alta-pete]

1 minute ago, Donathan said:

Which ones do you have them getting?

As quoted in CAPS on your post above, I reckon probably E Lothian and - just maybe- Dumbarton. 

[git-intae-thum]

Lots of pushing of the idea of giving the 2nd vote to the greens going on all of a sudden.

Wonder why

[ayrmad]

24 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

Given the areas that went yellow between 2017 and 2019, the SNP have to be fancying their chances of a majority without the list IMO.

 

The SNP won 59 of Scotland's 73 constituencies five years ago and won 4 list seats for a total of 63 MSPs, just 2 short of the 65 needed for outright control of the parliament.

 

So to win a majority without relying on the list, the SNP need to hold all their constituencies and gain 6 seats.

 

The 14 non-SNP seats are:

 

1. Orkney and 2. Shetland

Grouping these together, rocks could melt under the sun before either of these seats elect anything other than a Liberal Democrat.

3. Edinburgh Western

My money would be on an ACH hold given that the Lib Dems have a solid majority both here and in the Westminster seat.

4. Edinburgh Southern

Labour hold written all over it given that the constituency has the higher proportion of rUK born voters in all of Scotland due to the presence of Edinburgh University, there is a lot of Tory tactical vote that could go to Labour and the fact that the WM seat is safe Labour.

5. Edinburgh Central

I think we are looking at an SNP GAIN given that the popular Ruth Davidson is retiring, well known SNP candidate in Angus Robertson plus there was a big-pro SNP swing in the WM seat 15 months ago. I'd be very surprised if Robertson doesn't win the seat.

6. North-East Fife

Willie Rennie hangs on to this IMO thanks to tactical voting. In the 2019 GE the Labour and Tory votes both collapsed here to help Wendy Chamberlain of the Lib Dems unseat Stephen Gethins, the only SNP seat loss in that entire election. I think we'll see a similar phenomenon here and Willie keeps his seat.

7. Aberdeenshire West

This will come down to a few hundred votes between the sitting MSP Alexander Burnett and the SNP candidate Fergus Mutch. West Aberdeenshire is becoming Tory farmer heartlands, so I'd back Burnett to hand on by the skin of his teeth, perhaps a smaller majority than even the 900 votes he won by last time.

8. Ayr

SNP took the WM seat on less favourable boundaries than this and the majority is only 750. This should be SNP GAIN all day long.

9. Dumfriesshire

Tory heartland, hold for Fluffy Jr

10. East Lothian

The local MP being a yes da aside, this can go to Paul McLennan for the Nationalists. They won the WM seat easily in 2019 and are only 1000 votes behind last time (even closer in 2011). This should be our third SNP GAIN.

11.  Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire

Tory heartland

12.  Galloway and West Dumfries

Of the Tory border seats this is the one that the SNP have a sniff of but Alistair Jack held on comfortably enough at the general election and I think Finlay Carson will here.

13. Eastwood

Former Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw is on a shoogly peg and this can go to Colm Merrick IMO. The SNP were only 1611 behind Carlaw last time and Labour only another couple of hundred back from that, but the SNP won back the WM seat easily in 2019 and more importantly, the Labour candidate last time was the former constituency MSP Ken MacIntosh who of course got back in through the list and is now the speaker. He had a popular local following but you'd expect a lot of his personal votes to go to the SNP. SNP GAIN.

14. Dumbarton

Jackie Baillie only won this by 109 votes last time. Easy SNP GAIN.

 

So I expect 5 seats to easily flip for the SNP: Edinburgh Central, Ayr, East Lothian, Eastwood and Dumbarton. Assuming they don't lose a held seat, that would leave them needing one of the other Edinburgh seats, NE Fife, Aberdeenshire West or G&WD. Even if not, you'd expect them to pick up one list seat in the H&I and one in the South so I think a full majority is within reach.

 

If enough yes supporters flip their list vote over to the Greens in the other six regions then we could be looking at a thumping independence majority in Holyrood, possibly 75+ yes supporting MSPs

I'm not convinced about Ayr, most people I know are no longer fans of Nicola, while acknowledging that she's better than the rest. 

[RH33]

List greens 

Possibly no one in constituency.

 

 

 

[Gordon EF]

23 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

As quoted in CAPS on your post above, I reckon probably E Lothian and - just maybe- Dumbarton. 

I'd be surprised if they didn't take Edinburgh Central. Ruth Davidson is standing down after ignoring the constituency for 5 years and Joanna Cherry monstered the Tories in a fairly overlapping WM constituency in 2019.

[Donathan]

Yeah Edinburgh Central isn’t really a Tory area, it’s just that the old SNP MSP who was popular retired in 2016 and the Tories stood Davidson who was popular locally and throughout Scotland. If the hapless Cherry can win the WM seat then I expect an easy SNP gain.

[Glen Sannox]

1 hour ago, Stormzy said:

I have no faith in him tbh. I know a lot of people here obviously don't like Davidson but she is levels above him imo. 

I must say the talent in the current Scottish Conservative party is pretty diabolical, I can't think of anyone that bucks the trend at the moment. I'm actually liking the look of Sarwar so far but I think Scottish Labour are at such a low point also that I can't see a quick way out for them either way. 

You are spot on Stormzy. We really are up against it, what with all that talent the SNP have at their disposal.

[alta-pete]

 Zoinks. Is that really the best argument you’ve got? 

[NotThePars]

35 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

Lots of pushing of the idea of giving the 2nd vote to the greens going on all of a sudden.

Wonder why

Why don't you tell us, brother?

[SANTAN]

8 minutes ago, Glen Sannox said:

You are spot on Stormzy. We really are up against it, what with all that talent the SNP have at their disposal.

Aye it's pretty much Aids vs Cancer right now. 

I personally like 4 members of Scottish Labour which is considerably more than any other group right now but as mentioned before they're nowhere near being an actual credible opposition.