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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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3 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

So what's the end game here? Ukraine continues to exist as a state but under full control of Moscow? Or the beginnings of a new Soviet Union type state?

No there are too many Ukranian nationalists in the West. 

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It looks like they are going to grab all the pink bits of the map they published the other day which will leave Ukraine too skint to be any threat to them.

I've also seen people say they that there are areas which might be 'encouraged' to demand to join Poland, Romania and Hungary. 

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3 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Putin will be hoping for Belarus 2.0. Not sure if it will work.

I mean I'm not up to speed on Eastern European politics but it doesn't seem like there's a lot of appetite in any of the former Soviet states for this to happen. There's even strong opposition to it continuing within Belarus if I remember the reaction to the last few elections

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11 minutes ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said:

Some quite strange dismissals of NATO expansion and Anglo-American military adventurism here like they're not a factor.

Yeah, there seems to be a logic here that if you try to look at Putin's thought process and what has led him to decide on a full scale invasion, you're somehow providing a moral justification for his actions and making a statement that Vladimir Putin is good, actually. Which is primary school level nonsense.

Trying to understand the geopolitical motivations for the actions of a state =/= supporting those actions

Edited by Dunning1874
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Just now, SweeperDee said:


It’s essentially a Russian puppet state. They will do whatever Putin asks, like allowing them to station military in their borders so they can invade from the north.

That's not really true. 

They are the only Warsaw Pact country which didn't do a mass privatisation of all their industry. The EU have demanded neoliberal reforms and lower wages (they actually put out a document saying that) so the only way to maintain the Belaroussian economy is to remain close to Russia. 

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46 minutes ago, AlbionSaint said:

Why not go out and fight as a mercenary? I have seen reports of Britons out there - mostly Rambo types who want to experience battle. But firstly, by directly involving ourselves in this conflict we risk escalating it to a nuclear conflict and secondly, I cannot see the UK is threatened by this. 

If the US/UK hadn't lied about NATO expansion, hadn't inspired colour revolutions and had been willing to negotiate with Putin, this wouldn't be happening. This is another fucking mess created as a result of the USA's desire to remain the only superpower and our imbecilic/hawkish foreign policy.

 

21 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Do you not think that westward expansion of NATO and the USA assuming the right to make war/ do coups anywhere led to this?

Has NATO expansionism and American meddling in foreign governments become a thing in the last week? Obviously Putin has been talking about this long before then but I'm wondering why the threat of any interference was western fear-mongering a week ago, they were sending in 'peacekeeping' (lol) forces into specific region a few days ago and now they're very fairly and reasonably 'demilitarising' the country this morning.  

I'm (nearly, apparently) as far from a supporter of American/British foreign policy as it comes but the direct parroting of the wacky pish coming out of Moscow is a real beamer. I can't tell if it's posters being nuts themselves or a chemical Ali act to save face after being completely wrong with smug mug hot takes about how this would go down. A mix of both probably.

 

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12 minutes ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said:

Some quite strange dismissals of NATO expansion and Anglo-American military adventurism here like they're not a factor.

Whilst you can just about understand Russian concerns about Ukraine joining Nato, doing the thing that makes Ukraine want to join Nato isn't really the right way to go about resolving said concerns.

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1 minute ago, Aladdin said:

Whilst you can just about understand Russian concerns about Ukraine joining Nato, doing the thing that makes Ukraine want to join Nato isn't really the right way to go about resolving said concerns.

Ukraine can't join NATO though so long as it claims territory that it has no practical sovereign control over - that is to say, a monopoly of force.  There is absolutely no chance of Germany for example signing up to revive the ghosts of 1941-45 on that basis. 

A frozen conflict is enough to effectively bar Ukraine from membership. 

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2 minutes ago, Aladdin said:

Whilst you can just about understand Russian concerns about Ukraine joining Nato, doing the thing that makes Ukraine want to join Nato isn't really the right way to go about resolving said concerns.

Ukraine wasn't about to join NATO, it would require the agreement of all 30 members which wasn't going to happen, It's like the fiction that Turkey was about to join the EU and flood Britain with 80 million immigrants.

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2 minutes ago, virginton said:

Ukraine can't join NATO though so long as it claims territory that it has no practical sovereign control over - that is to say, a monopoly of force.  There is absolutely no chance of Germany for example signing up to revive the ghosts of 1941-45 on that basis. 

A frozen conflict is enough to effectively bar Ukraine from membership. 

Is Putin aiming for a frozen conflict though?

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