Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

... roshen ...

That's about as subtle as a sledgehammer. Taking the absolute poko out of this situation. 

[The Other Foot]

3 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Lawyers watching so we'd better not start roshen into judgement.

 

You mean it wasn't Mumsnet this time?!

[alta-pete]

10 hours ago, ICTChris said:

The Times reported that a wealthy figure sponsored the operation and "left a peculiar calling card".  Lawyers watching so we'd better not start roshen into judgement.

Ian McCall is a Ukrainian enabler? Mind. Blown. 

Edited March 8, 2023 by alta-pete

[ICTChris]

Russia has launched missile attacks overnight, including six Kinzahl hypersonic missiles.  They've said this was done in retaliation for the incursion to Brydansk.  Most of the missiles seem to have targeted the Ukrainian power supply - the first strikes on power in the last three weeks or so.  Most of the areas have had power restored - around nine people are reported to have died.

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Russia has launched missile attacks overnight, including six Kinzahl hypersonic missiles.  They've said this was done in retaliation for the incursion to Brydansk.  Most of the missiles seem to have targeted the Ukrainian power supply - the first strikes on power in the last three weeks or so.  Most of the areas have had power restored - around nine people are reported to have died.

It’s interesting that Russia is choosing to use the Kinzahl’s in this role. While only having a 500kg warhead, the kinetic energy of the impact of the missile and warhead is closer to equivalent to 4,000kg…but…

-It’s a strategic capable weapon, able to carry a nuclear warhead, yet it’s being thrown away on these attacks.

-It’s not showing itself to be particularly precision in its strikes, which suggests either the Russians are using this conflict to beta test the weapon or they are really low on other precision weapons systems.

-Using the Kinzahl in this way, a few strikes on Ukraine, is allowing NATO to get good data on the Kinzahl, its performance and its systems. It’s also entirely possible that some elements of a Kinzahl will fall into Western hands, although the high speed of impact (Mach 12) would suggest very little should survive.

-Russian quality control is poor enough that if you fire a number of Kinzahl, at least one is likely to malfunction, and it is possible that a malfunctioning missile might land nearly intact, or at least in a salvageable form.

-It's likely that the use of the Kinzahl is against military recommendation and just Putin trying to show who’s bigger.

[ICTChris]

Lots of people talked about the Kinzahls as a wonder weapon in the early days or run up to the war but it doesn’t seem to have had any sort of significant impact on the battlefield. Even now, it’s seemingly been used in a retributive attack on civilian infrastructure rather than any sort of context that would be useful to Russian forces on the field. 

Also, a U.S. official has denied the story that US intelligence has assessed that NordStream was blown up by a pro-Ukrainian commando group. Bit of Mandy Rice-Davies about that one but worth noting.

[TxRover]

42 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Lots of people talked about the Kinzahls as a wonder weapon in the early days or run up to the war but it doesn’t seem to have had any sort of significant impact on the battlefield. Even now, it’s seemingly been used in a retributive attack on civilian infrastructure rather than any sort of context that would be useful to Russian forces on the field. 

Also, a U.S. official has denied the story that US intelligence has assessed that NordStream was blown up by a pro-Ukrainian commando group. Bit of Mandy Rice-Davies about that one but worth noting.

The Kinzahl is really just a Iskander in drag. It’s only hypersonic because of the ballistic trajectory it follows and was created by grafting an improved guidance section onto the old Iskander 9K720 IRBM. Overall, the Russians seem to have used between 15 and 20 Kinzahl’s from an estimated pre-war inventory in the mid-double digit range. This would mean somewhere between 20 and 40% of the available weapons have now been used to little effect.

[LongTimeLurker]

This looks like explosives strapped to a commercially available quadcopter rather than something the Americans have supplied?

 

Edited March 11, 2023 by LongTimeLurker

[TxRover]

Interesting note that the Russians had paused their attack on Ukrainian power infrastructure for the past three weeks, and when they resumed the attacks could only muster 81 missiles, the majority being the difficult to intercept Kinzahl and anti-ship cruise missile weapons. Since both these weapons are difficult to produce, their stocks aren’t exactly brimming full and will be hard to replace quickly. There have also been recent reports from Wagner that ammunition arriving at the front is date coded 2023, and just in time production is a very dicey proposition for ammunition.

The best numbers are that Russians had 40-50 Kinzahl, and have expended 20 or so…300 Kh-555 cruise missiles, over 150 expended…940 Iskander IRBM’s, with 780+ expended…8,000 S-300’s, with 7,000+ expended…620 Kalibr cruise missiles, with 250 expended, etc. Production numbers are a fraction of expenditure, and this pause that just occurred may confirm the reports that Russia is estimated to have reserves for less than 5 volley attacks of a similar nature left. Also, the largest percentage number of weapons left are nuclear platforms, of which a certain number must be reserved for strategic concerns.

In Bakhmut, the front line is now the river, which explains why the Russians are pushing an envelopment strategy, as a river crossing under attack is suicidal in this environment.

[TxRover]

Still not good to wander close to windows in Russia…

https://globalnews.ca/news/9494380/russian-defence-official-dies-fall-st-petersburg-marina-yankina/

A well positioned person to interdict corruption…falls from the 16th floor…quel surprise…

[TxRover]

Problems with the Ukrainian activist theory for NordStream. The yacht that was “used” does not have sufficient capacity to carry 2 tonnes of explosive, a decompression chamber, and all the specialist heli-ox diving equipment necessary to do the job alone. The German investigators are now pursuing a state actor possibility due to the significant investment and training necessary to do the job over 4 days at 80+ metres. If a state actor is involved, false flags or distractions are nearly assured.

[Todd_is_God]

5 hours ago, TxRover said:

Problems with the Ukrainian activist theory for NordStream. The yacht that was “used” does not have sufficient capacity to carry 2 tonnes of explosive, a decompression chamber, and all the specialist heli-ox diving equipment necessary to do the job alone. The German investigators are now pursuing a state actor possibility due to the significant investment and training necessary to do the job over 4 days at 80+ metres. If a state actor is involved, false flags or distractions are nearly assured.

It was the US

[welshbairn]

Navalny has won the best documentary Oscar. Hope they don't find out he makes Putin seem like a woke liberal democrat.

Edited March 13, 2023 by welshbairn

[LongTimeLurker]

 

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

 

Now that’s a problem for Russia. The T-62 is much less than an older T-72, it’s a completely different platform, meaning new logistical issues like inexperienced maintenance crews and a shortage of spares. The T-62 has thinner armour, very little night fighting capacity, poor radios, no networking capacity, a smaller main gun, lower rate of fire, lower speed and shorter range. More unnervingly for the Russian tank crews, the T-62 stores 14 ready rounds in the fighting compartment, meaning that a hit kills the crew, and is also known for weak armour in the vicinity of the fuel tank. We can expect Russian crews bailing out of T-62’s in difficult situations to avoid likely death. The  T-62M/MV was upgraded with early reactive armour, its last seeious upgrade was in the mid-80’s, that only protected part of the front of the tank. Even better, the T-62’s armour improvements over the T-55/56 came at the expense of thinner top and lower side armour, making the T-62 very vulnerable to both mines and top attack munitions, although some had an armoured belly plate retrofitted. Given these weaknesses, combined operations with troops providing cover to reduce enemy infantry threats is a requirement, and here the T-62 has another problem…it’s slower than the IFV’s that it needs to work with for its protection.

The most fun note is that the Russians have thousands of T-72/T-80’s in storage that cannot be reactivated. There are an estimated 3,000+ T-72’s stored that are scrap due to embezzlement, fraud, misappropriation, corruption and incompetence.

[Have some faith in Magic]

Oh well, it was nice knowing you all. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64957792

 

[Dundee Hibernian]

7 minutes ago, Have some faith in Magic said:

Oh well, it was nice knowing you all. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64957792

 

Happily, the US blames the Russians. 

[The DA]

Apparently, the Russians dumped fuel on the Reaper before they flew in front of it and 'accidentally' brought it down.

[MazzyStar]

18 minutes ago, Dundee Hibernian said:

Happily, the US blames the Russians. 

It couldn’t possibly be their fault. They were only flying a drone near Russian territory. After all, a flying object from a foreign country near their border doesn’t seem to bother Americans. 

Edited March 14, 2023 by MazzyStar

[TxRover]

38 minutes ago, MazzyStar said:

It couldn’t possibly be their fault. They were only flying a drone near Russian territory. After all, a flying object from a foreign country near their border doesn’t seem to bother Americans. 

Let’s see…overflight of country versus loitering outside airspace, yea, that comparison is pretty weak, dude.

 

54 minutes ago, The DA said:

Apparently, the Russians dumped fuel on the Reaper before they flew in front of it and 'accidentally' brought it down.

This will result in an interesting question for Turkey, as the U.S. is likely to request transit of the Dardanelles with a vessel/vessels, in potential contravention of the Montreux Convention of 1936, for purposes of recovery of the wreckage. The really fun bit might be if a Russian vessel is spotted in the vicinity of the location the drone was crash landed…will the Turkish or Ukrainian Navy take action…or is there a U.S. SSN in the Black Sea, having transited submerged to allow Turkey to plead ignorance?

If the U.S. was able to guide the descent and splash it down in Turkish, Romanian, Bulgarian or Georgian territorial waters, the risk for the Russians in trying to recover the intelligence payload would be immense. If it’s in international or Ukrainian territorial waters, it’s a little easier, but still hairy. If it was out of control, and went down in Russian territorial waters, things might get very interesting.

On the whole, Ukraine might get a nice package of supplies, including ATACMS from this…poor Russian decision making. We’ll also likely see some Strike Eagles and/Raptors deployed to be able to cover the Black Sea.