Russian invasion of Ukraine

[TxRover]

1) Ukraine will not wish to accept anything less than return to pre-2014 Ukraine/Russia boundaries.

2) Ukraine is not capable of going it alone, and thus will have to agree to some concessions if the Western supporters tire.

3) Russia wants nothing less than a disarmed Ukrainian puppet state and to keep the annex territories, however there is a breaking point here for the oligarchs in Russia…although it is more of a breaking point for the Russian economy.

4) Putin is unlikely to agree to anything less than a Russian “win”, but may well be so out of touch with the reality on the ground in Ukraine that the actually conditions for a perceived “win” are already unachievable.

5) Those with access to power in Russia likely understand these conditions and are simply staying out of the way of Putin’s ire, and hoping the West gets tired before Ukraine drives Russia out.

6) Russia’s weapon export business has taken a critical hit, as has its military trainer role.

7) Russian infrastructure has taken a huge hit, with the core aviation load capacity destroyed and the rail transport system stretched to the limit.

8 ) Ukraine has been devastated, and the war crimes investigation and reparations demands will both mitigate against any negotiated settlement outside of gunpoint.

9) Leadership change in Russia is the only likely route to a true negotiated settlement, however there is little apparent opportunity for this change in view.

10) Current Russian strategic missile attacks seem either highly inaccurate or the Russians have, without admitting it, moved to the German WW2 Terror Attack strategy in an effort to knock Ukraine out of the war.

11) Increasing reports of sabotage or “Ukrainian” artillery attacks on Russian territory are possibly false flags designed to support an increase in force used. Alternatively, they could be an indication of an increasing resistance within Russia.

12) Post-Soviet Russia failed to effectively move to a volunteer force structure, and even recent attempts failed as well. This is pertinent because the American (and, to an extent, Western) move to such a structure was critical to their recovery from the 50’s-70’s military failures. With fraud, theft, bribery and such rampant in the Russian arms and military support/supply structure,  the Russian military is left to rely upon mass attacks of poorly trained men…something the population as a whole no longer seems willing or able to support. This may be a factor in 10 and 11 above.

13) There is no easy route out.

 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, TxRover said:

2) Ukraine is not capable of going it alone, and thus will have to agree to some concessions if the Western supporters tire.

Really, this means USA. I don't foresee any let up in support under Biden. Would a 2024 Republican win change things, d'you think? 

[TxRover]

30 minutes ago, FreedomFarter said:

Really, this means USA. I don't foresee any let up in support under Biden. Would a 2024 Republican win change things, d'you think? 

I see the Conservative Caucus already pushing to spend less supporting Ukraine. There is a fair chance of some limiting or reduction of supplies/support this summer, as the most Conservative nut jobs are fully on board the ‘Murica First train, also known as Putin’s Poodles.

A Republican win in 2024 would be Putin’s dream, but luckily the R’s seem hellbent upon pissing off a huge part of the U.S. voter base. If MTG (Marjorie Taylor-Greene) maintains her grip upon McCarthy, God only knows what will happen, but a default and global crisis is the current minor sideshow. It’s unlikely the Freedom Caucus (MTG and similar nut jobs) will vote for anything short of what the House just passed, so McCarthy has to either work with D’s and moderate R’s, or watch America burn.

[welshbairn]

6 hours ago, Dev said:

Another factor playing in the background is the powers of those such as the International Courts to accuse (if not convict - due to absence) the likes of the worst Russian wrong-doers during this War.

Reparations against the current nation of Russia could also spark rebellions with the country. Thinking that Russia may find itself losing territory, particularly where it was only gained during the 1900's following two World Wars.

Re-allocate Kaliningrad for a starter as this provides Russia with important ice-free access to the north Atlantic.

Return Sochi etc to their former countries.

For a start none of the major powers have signed up to the Hague court, I think you might be off on an alternative reality riff there. Return Sochi and relocate Kaliningrad ffs!

Edited May 2, 2023 by welshbairn

[Dev]

None of the posters on this thread knows what the outcome in Ukraine will turn out to be or when that may even be reached.

I am  just, openly, putting forward opinion and supposition, just like I said. By all means criticise! I do not claim to understand as much as some others. However, at least I am open about that, unlike a few.

[ICTChris]

Another entry in the Nord Stream 2 log. Russian naval vessels, capable of underwater operations, placed near the site around time of the blasts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65461401

[ICTChris]

Two drones appear to have hit the Kremlin last night. Russian state sources describing it as a terrorist act and an attempt on Putin’s life.

Some footage of the strikes from a neighbourhood webcam.

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by ICTChris

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Another entry in the Nord Stream 2 log. Russian naval vessels, capable of underwater operations, placed near the site around time of the blasts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65461401

Careful, much like Vikie’s recent silent runningred dot cruises through here, you’ll draw quiet attention. We can’t suggest those peace loving Russians might have had any involvement.

[ICTChris]

Putin wasn't in the Kremlin at the time, his spokesman has said.  There has been talk of Ukraine developing longer range drones but they've also had drones shot down near Moscow in the past and the other week an alleged Ukrainian drone posted footage from Red Square.

[Steven W]

Would Ukraine do this entirely off its' own back? Surely USA / the West would say don't be so stupid? Or does the USA/ the West have intelligence that would suggest Putin is on the brink of something crazy himself and the only solution would be to wipe him out?

Or a false flag thingy? I readily concede, I don't know a great deal on all this

[Melanius Mullarkey]

Pilot error IMO

[ICTChris]

1 hour ago, Steven W said:

Would Ukraine do this entirely off its' own back? Surely USA / the West would say don't be so stupid? Or does the USA/ the West have intelligence that would suggest Putin is on the brink of something crazy himself and the only solution would be to wipe him out?

Or a false flag thingy? I readily concede, I don't know a great deal on all this

Ukraine have shown that they have the capabilities to attack sites deep into Russian territory with drones.  From what we can tell the US and other allies have said that Ukraine cannot use newly supplied weapons to attack Russian territory.  Most of the attacks on Russian territory has involved domestically produced weapons.  Some of the most prominent attacks have been

- Millerovo air base:  Attacked on the second day of the war with Tokha-U missiles (Soviet produced)

- Belgorod fuel depot attack: Ukrainian helicopters (domestically produced) flew across the border and destroyed a fuel depot in Belgorod.

- Dyagilevo and Engels airbase attacks: Ukrainian drones, adapted from Soviet jet drones.

 

There are some odd things about this though - no-one reported it at the time and it was only several hours later that it became known.  The footage isn't entirely clear and could be ambiguous.  From what I've read the explosions could be the result of air defence.  It could be used by the Kremlin to push against aid for Ukraine or to cajole China to intervene in their favour.  That's all just talk though.

There has been something of a wave of attacks inside Russia today though - a fuel train was blown up by an IED in Bryansk and a depot was hit and destroyed in Taman, see below.

 

 

 

Edited May 3, 2023 by ICTChris

[ICTChris]

Ukraine has come out and said that they don't know anything about the attack.

Here's another video of the drone being shot down.

 

 

[The DA]

So, it's OK for Russian forces to pound Ukraine with missiles and drones but not for Ukraine to do the same to Russia?

[Mr. Brightside]

Imagine trying to kill the head of the country that invaded your own. Madness.

[welshbairn]

Russia has either been astoundingly unsuccessful or have pretty much left Government buildings in Kiev alone. This could be a contrived excuse to start flattening the centre of Kiev, something the Moscow hardliners have been demanding. I hesitate to use "false flag" given the tinfoil hat connotations. 

[ICTChris]

27 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Russia has either been astoundingly unsuccessful or have pretty much left Government buildings in Kiev alone. This could be a contrived excuse to start flattening the centre of Kiev, something the Moscow hardliners have been demanding. I hesitate to use "false flag" given the tinfoil hat connotations. 

Russia hasn't flattened major cities in Ukraine for a number of reasons, none of which are the lack of an excuse.  Kyiv is heavily defended by air defence, as can be seen by the success they regularly have against Russian missile barrages.  Yesterday they fired 23 Shahad drones at Kyiv and every single one was shot down.  There are missiles that the Russians could use that Ukraine can't intercept but these are very limited in number.  

So if Russia decided to launch a significant air campaign against Ukrainian cities there would be a number of consequences - they would lose more aircraft and pilots, the most expensive equipment and most highly trained personnell the Russian armed forces have; they would have to divert air power to this campaign away from the front line; it would expend ammunition that could be used elsewhere; increased use of air power could make Ukraine's allies more likely to provide fighter jets to combat them.

I imagine that there will be a barrage of missiles heading towards Ukrainian cities very soon, doubtless killing civilians.  

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Ukraine has come out and said that they don't know anything about the attack.

Here's another video of the drone being shot down.

 

 

The whole “Kremlin attack” is a bit bizarre. The item in question certainly appears to be a few feet long and out of control, maneuvering much like a helicopter with a loss of tail rotor control (i.e. spinning gyroscopically). The size of the explosion seems to indicate a flammable fuel supply, with a reasonable amount left, so a small, conventionally powered drone is the likely item, which puts direct flight from Ukraine into the very improbable category.

It certainly ups the possibility of a false flag attack, and also asks the question of was it actually shot down? A missile intercept that low isn’t really possible (most radar systems have an absolute lower limit around 50-100m due to ground clutter, while an infrared system fired that low and that close to a building in a major city is very unlikely), while a kinetic defence system (gun or similar) would be positioned on the outskirts of Moscow due to the risks of expended ammunition returning to earth within a city. A laser point defence system is an interesting possibility, but the intercept was low and late if that was the case.

There are too many convenient factors here…but…

[TxRover]

5 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Russia hasn't flattened major cities in Ukraine for a number of reasons, none of which are the lack of an excuse.  Kyiv is heavily defended by air defence, as can be seen by the success they regularly have against Russian missile barrages.  Yesterday they fired 23 Shahad drones at Kyiv and every single one was shot down.  There are missiles that the Russians could use that Ukraine can't intercept but these are very limited in number.  

So if Russia decided to launch a significant air campaign against Ukrainian cities there would be a number of consequences - they would lose more aircraft and pilots, the most expensive equipment and most highly trained personnell the Russian armed forces have; they would have to divert air power to this campaign away from the front line; it would expend ammunition that could be used elsewhere; increased use of air power could make Ukraine's allies more likely to provide fighter jets to combat them.

I imagine that there will be a barrage of missiles heading towards Ukrainian cities very soon, doubtless killing civilians.  

Russia can’t strike Kyiv with bombers used other than as carrier for stand-off cruise missiles, simply because of the Ukrainian air defences. Kharkiv is doable, as so called glide-bombs could be launched from far enough away from the air defences, but to hit Kyiv the same way would, as you note, be suicidal. The Russian missiles have proven to be, on the whole, inaccurate and the Iranian drones are much more accurate but easily intercepted…as long as the Ukrainians have missile for their defence systems.

I actually have doubts about the Russian ability to significantly strike Ukrainian targets on any sustained basis due to supply issues, ones that mirror the defenders issue. If this “Kremlin attack” is some form of false flag, it begs the question of what is the end game for the provocation? Is Putin considering using something else….

[sparky88]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Russia hasn't flattened major cities in Ukraine for a number of reasons, none of which are the lack of an excuse.  Kyiv is heavily defended by air defence, as can be seen by the success they regularly have against Russian missile barrages.  Yesterday they fired 23 Shahad drones at Kyiv and every single one was shot down.  There are missiles that the Russians could use that Ukraine can't intercept but these are very limited in number.  

So if Russia decided to launch a significant air campaign against Ukrainian cities there would be a number of consequences - they would lose more aircraft and pilots, the most expensive equipment and most highly trained personnell the Russian armed forces have; they would have to divert air power to this campaign away from the front line; it would expend ammunition that could be used elsewhere; increased use of air power could make Ukraine's allies more likely to provide fighter jets to combat them.

I imagine that there will be a barrage of missiles heading towards Ukrainian cities very soon, doubtless killing civilians.  

Both sides would love to use more air power, but one of the stories of the war has been the success of defensive ground to air weaponry. As devastating as the Russian attacks have been on Ukraine, relatively few missiles seem to be hitting their targets, having been shot down. 

Is it not a bit obvious that this is a false flag?